tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post6527027242728841756..comments2024-02-24T06:10:42.255-08:00Comments on Congo Siasa: The real challenge for KagameJason Stearnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11454449854081540397noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-14737545787372507762010-08-09T11:36:53.620-07:002010-08-09T11:36:53.620-07:00This is interesting. When I was in Kampala a few ...This is interesting. When I was in Kampala a few months ago, I had some discussions with a security analyst in the region who pinned much of the recent defections within RPF to disagreements over Nkunda, and RPF's recent policies in areas of Congo. Among the high-profile RPF defectors, the anger over Kagame's authoritarianism, and their political grievances more generally, are likely stemming from somewhere. But Nkunda and Congo will not be things that Rwandan dissidents will publicly discuss in interviews. (Nyamwasa is also related to the Tutsi monarchy, and there are known disagreements within the RPF about the fate of the Mwami.)Elizabeth Allenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13413216102927445226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-8648963695116880242010-08-09T07:03:12.868-07:002010-08-09T07:03:12.868-07:00Nkunda,
You are correct about the threat to Kaga...Nkunda,<br /><br /><br />You are correct about the threat to Kagame. However, I was talking about the threat to Rwandans. The biggest threat to normal Rwandans is Kagame and his military men. They have massacred millions in the region and would not hesitate to do it again in Rwanda as a means to remain in power.Champhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04100201775573067765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-65634294024644207812010-08-07T13:30:02.077-07:002010-08-07T13:30:02.077-07:00Champ:
While the Tutsi elites (members of the RPF...Champ:<br /><br />While the Tutsi elites (members of the RPF) might pose a great threat to Kagame at the moment; ultimately, the greatest threat to Kagame is democracy, free speech and human rights.Nkundahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14082281582678434598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-79046260060674992722010-08-07T13:24:40.434-07:002010-08-07T13:24:40.434-07:00Mr. Stearn,
Thanks for your response. I should ma...Mr. Stearn,<br /><br />Thanks for your response. I should make it clear that I consider you a powerful and influential voice--the very reason why I am hooked to your blog.Influential because what you say matters.<br /><br />But I do understand that your post was pragmatic rather than "normative". Is it possible to integrate the two?<br /><br />Thank you.Nkundahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14082281582678434598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-62057518983119460442010-08-07T12:21:42.660-07:002010-08-07T12:21:42.660-07:00Jason, although the comment was not directed to me...Jason, although the comment was not directed to me I will give you a clue. The RPF is as popular in Rwanda as it is in Congo. The fact that Kagame would not allow the opposition to run is because he knows from the results in 2003 that he actually lost in the real count. He also knows that he would lose an open, free and fair election.<br /><br />However, I still think there is great danger to the civilians as the Junta is falling apart and they language of choice is guns and bullets.Champhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04100201775573067765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-27303453926215872462010-08-07T11:57:09.516-07:002010-08-07T11:57:09.516-07:00I think you may have misunderstood my intent here....I think you may have misunderstood my intent here. I do not endorse the RPF's curtailing of civil liberties. I am not taking a normative position, I am pragmatically evaluating the consequence of the RPF's policies. <br /><br />Whether the RPF is really popular among rural Hutus is difficult to figure out, as there are few objective polls, but you may well be right.Jason Stearnshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11454449854081540397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-47265346317326035922010-08-07T11:56:36.304-07:002010-08-07T11:56:36.304-07:00I would say this is indeed the greatest threat to ...I would say this is indeed the greatest threat to the lives of Rwandans given that Kagame and his cronies use bullets to settle conflicts. He continues to demote those he is affraid of jailing like Kabarebe and Nyamwasa. Being the minister of defense is a demotion from the Army chief of staff in Rwanda. These people have fought war for most of the last 30 years and their first instict is to shoot. A shootout among the top RPF officers is very possible but could lead to serious bloodbath in Rwanda. Not only has Kagame sidelinde the older generals such as Kaka, etc...He has assassinated the Rutayisire's. The new breed in favor are the Gen. Fred Ibingira, Gen. Jack Nziza's who are well experienced in internal and international assassinations. If shootouts break out, not everyone will be on Kagame's side and not everyone will be against Kagame. It is very dangerous for the people of Rwanda.Champhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04100201775573067765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-8055230528745942012010-08-07T10:30:32.238-07:002010-08-07T10:30:32.238-07:00It seems democracy was not one of your considerati...It seems democracy was not one of your considerations when you wrote this post.<br /><br />Unfortunate it may be, but there is NO way Kagame would win in a free and fair election given his unpopularity among the Hutu peasants. <br /><br />Do I need to remind you what happened in Burundi in 1993? A little known Melchior Ndadaye emerged out of the boonies to win the elections with a large margin against his UPRONA rivals. The speculation (among experts and diplomats) had been that Ndadaye would lose — given that he was underfunded and largely unknown.<br /><br />“In fact, many in private seem to think that the authoritarian touch is a boon for a country coming out of such mass violence. Also, it isolates the government from the democratic pressures that have driven patronage politics in Kenya and Nigeria, for example.”<br /><br />The irony (as you have acknowledged) is that authoritarian leadership is inherently sectarian and automatically promotes sectarianism. <br /><br />There are complains that Kagame and his inner circle have resurrected the infamous “Akazu”. Senior position in the army, civil service and private sector are dished out to Kagame’s sycophants. And Hutus (also rural Tutsi) are widely marginalized from the development process.Nkundahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14082281582678434598noreply@blogger.com