tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post8720484221077169409..comments2024-02-24T06:10:42.255-08:00Comments on Congo Siasa: Dealing with the FDLR: The art of the possibleJason Stearnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11454449854081540397noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-78072940555213864772009-12-07T20:14:15.042-08:002009-12-07T20:14:15.042-08:00Dino,
How can leaders in the diaspora hold toge...Dino,<br /><br /> How can leaders in the diaspora hold together the military and terrorize those on the ground? I have impression you may have a partial view or not be aware of what is going on on the ground. Having observed for long the Rwandan rebels, their political leaders can only advocate, maybe push, for political solutions, but cannot, and I say CANNOT order the military to stay in the bush or for the matter, to go back to Rwanda. The proofs are there: the overall FDLR commander General Paul Rwarakabije managed to defect with only 20 officers: 1 Colonel, 4 majors, 15 low ranking officers, and his body guards; Major Seraphin Bizimungu failed to convince his 2 high ranking associates (by the way, not accused of genocide), who instead fled to Zambia or somewhere in Southern Africa instead of going back to Rwanda, where RPF had promised them positions within the military. <br /><br />Let us think out of the box. Jason has proposed a reasonable and pragmatic framework. We only diverge on three points:<br />1- I believe the Rwandan problem is political, not military<br />2- I am convinced that supporting the Sant'Egidio and Norway approach of getting Rwanda to negotiate with the moderates, especially RUD is the best approach<br />3- I think we have catered to the whims and tantrums of Paul Kagame too much. It is time for the spoiled Rwandan dictator to grow up and start respecting the basic rights of his people.<br /><br /> As for advocating the arrest of Rwandan opposition leaders in the diaspora, in the West we do not arrest people for their political views. We leave that to the dictators somewhere else. How about arresting Paul Kagame who is responsible for the death of more 5 millions Congolese and 3 millions of his people?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01462258542215515953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-2518319868397689632009-12-07T17:08:35.001-08:002009-12-07T17:08:35.001-08:00Jackson,
Solid arguments as always. My own feeling...Jackson,<br />Solid arguments as always. My own feeling from having a brief look at how the FDLR operate on the ground is that there are still too much hardliners dominating the debate on the FDLR side. These are the same guys who hold together the military and propaganda machine of the FDLR on the ground, terrorising many of the moderates into staying in the bush and fighting for a cause they dont necessarilly believe in. The edifice needs to be softened up somewhat. How do can we do that? Arrest some of the leaders in the diaspora. They were never planning on going back to Rwanda anyway, unless it meant regime change. Western governments need to do more before they can call Rwanda to account, otherwise Kigali will continue to repeat its objections to opening up political space and parrot tired old arguments to justify its interventions in the DRC. If the international community can achieve this it will have some moral authority to address some of Rwanda's involvement in DRC.DMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03739750770007958320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-39505689863359175432009-12-05T18:01:25.696-08:002009-12-05T18:01:25.696-08:00continued..
PARECO/FPC leader General Kakule Lafo...continued..<br /><br />PARECO/FPC leader General Kakule Lafontaine has confirmed the fact in the memorandum he sent to the UK Ambassador in Kinshasa on September 28, 2009. This is what he wrote:<br />"5.les fameuses FDLR, dont on ne connaît pas réellement l’agenda. Ils sont là fortement armés, intouchables, entretenant de relations ambiguës avec les FARDC, les Mayi Mayi et parfois même avec une partie du CNDP. Ils font du commerce, volent le petit bétail et les récoltes de la population autochtones. Nombreux parmi eux vivent sur le dos de la population. Ils n‘ont pas de leadership politique. Ils présentent un danger parce que n’importe qui peut les utiliser dans la déstabilisation de notre pays. <br /><br />6. Les RUD, est un mouvement des combattants rwandais dont les éléments sont des Hutu et des Tutsi. Ils sont eux aussi lourdement armés. Contrairement aux autres forces présentes sur terrain, celles-ci vivent en harmonie avec la population. Leurs leaders politiques qui vivent en Occident viennent souvent les voir et passent beaucoup de temps avec eux. Ils entretiennent de bonnes relations avec les agents de la MONUC qui n’hésitent pas à passer les nuits dans leur campement avec leurs véhicules. Ils sont en contact avec les hautes autorités de Kinshasa. Ils se sont mariés aux femmes congolaises, spécialement de la communauté des BAHUTU de Rutshuru et Masisi. Ils cultivent leurs propres champs et font parfois du commerce. Leur intégration au sein des communautés locales semble leur réussir. La population semble les accepter et les tolérer. Ce qui est étonnant dans ce groupe est qu’ils font des allers-retours au Rwanda. Dans les rangs de ce mouvement, on trouve aussi des jeunes de la communauté HUTU congolaise. Ils répondent tous aux ordres d’un seul commandement. Ils combattent les éléments du CNDP. Ils sont alliés aux Mayi Mayi et certaines unités des FARDC. Ils constituent une source d’insécurité potentielle du fait qu’ils sont lourdement armés sur notre territoire. Ils opèrent en territoire de Rutshuru et Lubero. Leur comportement est exemplaire et hautement apprécié par la population."<br /><br />You know the region more than anyone here. But I believe the Burundi formula is a best example of what can be done: starting a political process with a moderate armed group and use the success to bring in the most radical.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01462258542215515953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-2002941108042626422009-12-05T18:00:22.763-08:002009-12-05T18:00:22.763-08:00Jason,
I must disagree with you on this: you cann...Jason,<br /><br />I must disagree with you on this: you cannot de-link the political and military problems in the case of Rwanda. I sincerely think the serious mistakes we in the West have made is to assume that there is a bunch of military thugs who holds others hostages. If it were so, Umoja Wetu and Kimia I &II would have solved the problem, because according to sources on the ground, the FDLR were dispersed into very small groups.<br /><br />The problem is political. I agree that talks should have been between RUD and Kigali. However, Kigali sent an official delegation during Kasiki disarmament ceremony: it was a first step that should have been exploited. Also to my knowledge, in January 2009, General Musare sent to Kigali a delegation, coordinated by MONUC and selected from those regrouped in Kasiki. The report on the visit, that I saw on the internet, was very insightful.<br />I do not see how General Musare could have taken the Kisangani process lightly, while sending his Second in Command to Pisa, Rome, and Kisangani, and personally participating in the demobilization process. On France24 and in other media, it was clearly shown and written that both General Musare and Felicien Kanyamibwa led the ceremonies in Kasiki on RUD's behalf and Mbusa Nyamwisi and Security Advisor to the President for the DRC government. Rwandan officials and diplomats were guests.<br />I do no see a rebel commander getting out of the bush without being serious or agreeing with the political leaders. There is a stark contrast with FDLR: have you ever seen General Mudacumura? Also, my sources say that RUD-Urunana is rather a more disciplined group and lives in harmony with Nande, Hunde, and Hutu in South Lubero and Rutshuru. PARECO/FPC leader General Kakule Lafontaine has confirmed the fact in the memorandum he sent to the UK Ambassador in Kinshasa on September 28, 2009. This is what he wrote (please see next post):Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01462258542215515953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-88080633772734165532009-12-05T13:48:12.819-08:002009-12-05T13:48:12.819-08:00James,
I am not against the Sant'Edigio proce...James,<br /><br />I am not against the Sant'Edigio process or the Norwegian-sponsored talks in Kisangani, but we have to recognize their limitations. <br /><br />To my best recollection, the Sant'Egidio process was blocked by the fact that Kigali refused to come to Rome, and by the political conditions that the FDLR imposed on returning to Rwanda. Given the lay of the land in Rwanda - whatever you may think of it - it will be very difficult to carry out such negotiations in public between the FDLR and the RPF for the reasons I listed in the posting. <br /><br />As for the Kisangani talks, I don't think that General Musare ever took them seriously. They were poorly structured - how can you have talks between RUD and Kinshasa when the real talks should have been between RUD and Kigali? At the end, RUD was never serious about returning home, I think (I heard as much from their commanders) - the talks were very attractive for the cash, food and shelter that come with them and for the credibility it gave the organization. <br /><br />Rather, I think that Sant-Egidio can help but contacting the moderates in RUD/FDLR to arrange non-political talks with Kigali. We need to de-link the political and military problems. While I strongly agree that there should be an opening of political space in Rwanda, I do not think that it makes sense to tie this to negotiations with the FDLR or RUD. They are not credible as political organizations, their troops on the ground have caused far too much suffering.Jason Stearnshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11454449854081540397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1209670742820403516.post-15482959253264514702009-12-05T12:37:12.914-08:002009-12-05T12:37:12.914-08:00Jason,
This is the first time I see a "to th...Jason,<br /><br />This is the first time I see a "to the point" assessment of the root cause of the problem in the African Great Lakes region and the pragmatic and perhaps only likely successful solutions from a well connected person like you.<br />Once again, you show your mastery of the problem in the Great Lakes Region. I would add the following. Why not support the Sant'Egidio peace process? To my knowledge, since 2008, Sant'Egidio, the DRC government, Eglise du Christ in Congo (ECC), and SIK-Norway have been working with the most moderate leaders in the Rwandan armed rebellion. The leaders of the political party called National Democratic Congress (NCD), composed of RUD-Urunana and the Tutsi RPR (Rally for the Rwandan People, who are ex-RPF Tutsi military), have shown their moderate views and that they can disarm troops in the DRC (see Kisangani Roadmap of May 26, 2008 and the disarmement of Kasiki on July 31, 2008). It also happens that these leaders are easily accessible. For RUD political leaders: Felicien Kanyamibwa and Jean Marie Higiro are in USA, Augustine Dukuze is in Canada, and Marie Goretti Abayizigira is in France, whereas for the Tutsi RPR, Major Gerard Ntashamaje lives in Belgium and Captain Ruyenzi in France. RUD and RPR leaders will be tasked to convince and bring into the fold the FDLR moderates. Another advantage is that NCD (RUD/RPR) comprises both Tutsis and Hutus, the main Rwandan ethnic groups.<br /> But this can only be possible if USA, UK, France, and the UN get involved and support these moderate leaders and put pressure on both the Rwandan and the DRC governments. I am convinced this would certainly unlock the impasse. <br />I cannot finish without mentioning that Rakiya Omaar and her Rwandan DMI inspired reports can not be credible. She just is too close to RPF, having worked and lived with them since 1993 and currently being on the payroll of the Rwandan Government. If you need proofs I will be happy to forward these to you. Unfortunately, the latest UN Group of Experts' report is also tainted by Rakiya Omaar, which discredits the findings.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01462258542215515953noreply@blogger.com