Despite official indications by the Congolese government, the military situation on the ground against the M23 rebellion has not changed much. Several days ago, the government launched another push up the mountains against the rebellion. According to the government spokesman, they took several hills and victory appeared to be within reach. On Monday, the armed forces commander Gen Didier Etumba gave a presentation to a ministerial meeting in which he said that they had killed 200, wounded 250 and prompted 374 others to surrender.
Other reports from the ground, however, contradict this picture. A senior Congolese military officer told me, "We advanced a little, but then withdrew again. Nothing has changed much." A United Nations official reported that the offensive had smaller than expected, and that few gains had been made on either side.
At the same time, there are persistent rumors that M23 is trying to open a second front in Masisi, and that further meetings are taking place to mobilize political leaders, especially from the Hutu and Tutsi communities, to join the movement.
Meanwhile, talks between Rwanda and the Congo continue. Last week, a joint verification team interviewed the 11 Rwandan M23 defectors who were in a MONUSCO demobilization camp in Goma. The defectors' story changed slightly, as they now denied that Rwandan officers had taken them to the border, and they said the uniforms they had received were Congolese, not Rwandan. But they still maintained that they were recruited in Rwanda, passed through Kinigi, and provided with weapons and ammunition there. Following this joint verification, the two countries have not yet been able to sign a joint statement reflecting the defectors' testimony.
Rwanda continues to maintain that they played no role in supporting the rebellion, while in private many Congolese officials insist on the contrary. The dossier is now reportedly in President Kabila's hands - he will have to decide on whether to continue to treat these allegations bilaterally, through the joint commission, or to take the debate into the open, or at least to lobby diplomats more forcefully. (Meanwhile, the US State Department put out a statement that tried to placate all sides, warning against "outside support" for FDLR as well as M23.) Yesterday, there were indications from Kinshasa that the latter strategy might prevail, which could change dynamics.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
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It does not seem as slight to change from Rwanda to DRC uniforms! It is a big difference, right? Now seems BBC was too fast reporting this without all the facts, under pressure maybe?
It seem as if Rwanda will never let go of eastern Congo because of the massive interest they have in that country. What Congo needs to do is to continue will the military operation and mobalise support from the international community which Rwanda heavily rely on for donation. Congo is in a better position, if they follow through this plan we will soon see the disapearence of all small arm goup in the east.
@ anonym JUNE 7, 2012 12:01 AM,
I think the BBC's report was about men and ammunition. It will be simplistic to accuse Rwanda of supplying RDF's uniforms as well to recruits.
As I was fearing, the offensive stalled again. I feel for those soldiers in the front poorly managed. I'm afraid time is not on our side, Jk has a bad track record of keeping the troops motivate.
Blaise -
It is heart breaking to see any offensive not succeeding to gain ground from the rebels. However, we need to remind ourselves that these are very tough terrains and dislodging an armed group from the top of a hill doesn't come easy. You may need to refer to the Taliban and the US Army in Afghanistan ...
The other problem is we are not a 100% sure about the FARDC tactical approach here since some officers are saying that the strategy is to harass the m23 until it crumbles and others are saying they want to go for a big blow and see the game over after a strong offensive. Again, these two approaches may seem realistic but the problem remains, if you cannot cut off the supply routes, all the efforts will not bear consistent results.
It was easy to push m23 from Masisi when the FARDC could be able to squeeze from many points but now with the rwandan border opened and all the supplies coming in at will, I can imagine it to be very difficult to flush them from where they are...
Now, with the diplomatic pressure, if rwanda decide to stop its support, the surge by the FARDC may start to bear fruits. However, the other worry is how well prepared the FARDC is to counter and prevent m23 from opening another front since this will end up disrupting the structure of the current surge around runyori (believed to be the HQ of m23).
All in all, I can say, this time round things are much more positive than they were in 2008-2009 when cndp was almost having fun chasing FARDC around Nord Kivu. I think there is already a considerable boost to the moral of FARDC and I wish this continues, despite, the possibility of some setbacks here and there...
Rich
@ Rich,
I completely agree with you about the difficulty of the terrain. I applaud those soldiers who are risking their live for a better tomorrow.
But, from what you said, I will assume that there is two( or more) opposites schools of thoughts that influence the conduct of operation. That's a weakness for us. More confusion and unnecessary deaths.
As I stated previously, I have my doubt regarding the qualification of some of our officers to conduct those operations. I didn't have a lot of hope of success when I saw general Mayala inspecting the troops. With all respect to this admirable warrior, I don't believe he should be in charge of such number of soldiers. The more you have troops under you, the more complex is to coordinate them.
Idk about Tango four, I think his allegiance to the country should be taken with a grain of salt.
And last, not the least, General Etumba. How did he come up with those crazy numbers? I don't think it work in our favor to advertise when we will attack. The element of surprise is a powerful weapon. I wonder why they don't use the same strategy as the one in Tchad against Kadaffi's soldiers : constant bombardment to break the enemy morale.
@Rich
I think the strategy of pressure and harassment will be the best strategy because in this situation its almost impossible to cut their supply root wich is on the ether side of the border .I don't know for how long Rwanda will continue to supply It's fighters under strong international pressure. I think rushing for a big blow is a bad strategy because many of our soldiers are not yet very familiar with this terrain .there is going to be some set backs but unlike 2008 and 2009 this time the enemy is in a very weak position and they no longer have any strong hold inside our territory.
@Blaise
I totally agree with you, I think it was a big mistake to put people like TANGO FOUR with a very shady history in a position of Command.I don't know about MAYALA but I think general ETUMBA knows what is at stake here and I think they have learned from the 2008 mistakes .but this time the enemy's back is against the wall and the FARDC are in a more stable situation with better equipments and unlike 08 this does not look like a rushed offensive.
@ Jason, below some post :
The U.N. Says There Is No Document Charging Rwanda Helped M23 Rebels here the link : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/georgianne-nienaber/m23-congo_b_1566496.html
Anon JUNE 7, 2012 1:49 PM
Anyone who has been following the situation in eastern DRC will not fall for Georgianne Nienaber's weak defense of kagame.
Her article is completely out of topic and you can see she is trying hard to manupilate. She does not provide any fact to counter any of the allegations contained in the initial BBC report.
In fact, the BBC interviewed a UN spokesperson so to say the UN says no document charging rwanda helped M23 is misleading because there is not only the bbc report, but also the HRW, the RFI, the Congolese government own revelations, Aljazeera has got a footage of an ex recruit explaining how they were recruited and all these reports corroborate.
Besides that we can name countless cases where kagame has been involved in the tragedy happening in DRC. Where is jues mutebusi? where is laurent nkunda? to name but a few ...
kagame needs to realise that things are not the way they were back in 1998 or even in 2009. At best he can try and convince the world but he will fail to convince the Congolese and that's the bottom line.
Rich
@ Rich,
Completely agree with your assessment of lady Nienaber.
A text out of context it's just a pretext.
It's one thing to give the M23 a voice, but it's another to bend reality to fit a narrative.
The example she gave about the Kishanga massacre was astonishing. I didn't know that the Cndp had another chief beside general Nkunda(lol). Apparently she is not aware of the theory of chain of command.
The bottom line is that the Bbc report was relating the "confession" of those 11 supposed Rwandese, it wasn't a prove or disprove of Kigali involvement. I think the logic was that since Rwanda is a tight control country, nothing of this importance could have happened without some knowledge from the Army.
Anything it's possible here. It can be another sting operation for some members of the RDF or it can be a reaction from PK himself, furious for the abrupt stop of operations against Fdlr. Only history will tell.
She give to Mende a lot of credits for manipulating the international press. She should know better. I died on laughing when she started rumbling about those conspiracy theories about the sophistication of the Drc propaganda machine. I mean, seriously? Must be a joke. Did she actually listen to how Etumba was counting the number of rebels killed, wounded and surrendered? That was propaganda. I guess two years of researches qualify anybody as specialist of congo.
The Georgianne Nienaber lady is indeed a master of the art of propaganda, whereby there is an always bad guy (Congo) versus an always flawless gud guy (Kagame), facts are shamelessly bent to meet the objective.
Just like senior anti-Congo propagandist such as Herman Cohen (he who put Charles Taylor in power), NYT & CNN Congo defiler Nicholas Kristof , or former Reuters anti-Congo reporter Katrina Manson, Georgianne Nienaber will continue to write those anti-Congo articles using her latest Congo-blood-coltan-built I-Phone ,on behalf of the well known int’l banking & mining rascals.
Did Charles Taylor admit to backing rebellion in Sierra Leone? Has Kagame ever acknowledged the established fact of waging agression wars in Congo through Mutebisi and Nkunda? So why would he admit to being behind Ntanganda and M23 now?
The point is, anti-Congo propaganda cannot work in today’s context. For example, the “Congo-rape-capital-of-the world” trade has disappeared. Not that rape is no longer an issue. But it took a few courageous members of the “trade” to break the ranks and stand 4 truth in Congo for the monthly sensationalist and politically motivated statistics to stop abruptly.
muanacongo
I heard that Rwanda and Uganda own the ALLAFRICA.COM Congo Bashing website.
It looks like the Monusco has been deployed to surround and block all access to M23 hills, in the name of security to protect civilian being attacked.
At the same time this action stop all supplies of any kind to the mutinies.
Hoping then FARDC operations to become more successful sooner
http://direct.cd/2012/06/07/en-rdc-la-monusco-se-deploie-a-rutshuru-zone-de-combats-pour-proteger-les-populations/
@ ano at JUNE 8, 2012 3:25 AM
U r so right. Reed Kramer and Tami Hultman are the rascals behind the Congo bashing website ALLAFRICA.com . Just like Herman Cohen, Nicholas Kristof or Georgianne Nienaber, they are indeed the media interface for the int’l banking and mining vultures. They use chaos and the suffering of other people through senseless wars to make money, like in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola…
In Congo the technique is simple; as we Congolese say “Si tu veux tuer un chien tu l’accuse de rage”. That is if u want to kill a dog u should claim that its got rabbies. In other words, Congo should be accused of all the sins of Israel. It should be systematically presented as barbaric, savage and a lost cause. That way there is Congo fatigue or even hatred in the IC and the looting can go on. Unfortunately 4 them, American people and the world are starting to see the truth about Congo.
muanacongo
BREAKING NEWS
The DRC government has condemn rwanda for its "passivity in allowing a plot to destabilise the DRC to be mounted on rwandan soil..."
Rich
The link -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rN9UES8fFQ&feature=plcp
Rich
Here is Rwanda's reaction-
http://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/index.php?i=15020&a=54654
Both Governments are aware of what is going on.
They are just cooling down the population.
I call it brain wash.
CHURUCHURU
@ CHURUCHURU
I do agree with you that both government are aware of what's going on, but it's not a brain wash, I truely beleive that the government of Congo wants to establish it authority throughout the east, hence the have troops on the ground fighting the M23. I think as Congolese we are a very impatient nation, we want to see quick results yet we don't realise our disadvantage. I think our government is being strategic, it's monitoring it weakness and strength. An immediate all out war against th M23 will not be a good idea, military we are not yet the , even though they have been some improvement , the are still a lot of FARDC members who require military training
@ Churuchuru,
What can you tell us about the situation on the ground? I don't particularly trust gnrl Etumba or Mende Lambert for an accurate picture of the events. Are our soldiers well fed? What happened to those soldiers who refused to disarm? Are ex cndp still defecting?
Rwanda's officials are not fools but it's also possible that they looked the other way when those recruitment was in progress. I don't think a lot of RDF's officers are sympathetic with the Fardc.
Personally, after reading those 2009's accords, I conclude that although their pleas make sense, there were some point that are either under the competence of the legislative or the judiciary.
@ blaise
The situation on the ground is mixed.
Some support the Gov decisions, other says it is a pretending decision.
Most People on the ground look tired of the gov authorities, the way they handled the situation.
Many villages are empty, while the population from Masisi area fleeing, FDLR are taking over their belongings.
Some local Politicians from Goma are suggesting the DRC Ambassador in Rwanda to be called to Kinshasa.
The M23 fighters are promising to their friends to take over Goma town in short time.
To make the matter worst, People regret so much why the Gov decided to re suspend the Mineral trading offices and some mining titles particularly in NothKivu.
To be continued...
CHURUCHURU
thank you man,
I appreciate your insight. I'm sad for your ordeal. Our gov is, in my opinion, a lost cause. Jk just look after his rich friends and don't car e for the poor people. I bet that every time they reverse those decisions we have less armed groups.
Idk about the M23 claim, taking Goma cost Nkunda his position.
How can some 300 man with calachnikovs,and some Rpgs who are cornered in the virunga mountains ,over power thousands of FRDC with thanks,helicopters,rockets,truck mounted missiles....and take back goma,that's just your dream man,they will never be able to retake RUCHURU or Massisi late alone GOMA or any DRC territory outside their hiding forest in the Virunga ,and a bet you they're going to be dislodged from that area very soon. Those who are now pushing for negotiations just because the FARDC did not finish the job in 3weeks,are doing so because they don't want peace in that region and they have interests in the continued RWANDAN meddling.but this time the game is over ,the DRC's government is going to establish It's authority in the entirety of the DRC's territory .my friend time have Changed this is 2012 not 1998 or 2008 ,if you think that KAGAME will one day again March his troops to Goma ,you are just dreaming .
The USA support the DRC in their efforts to crush the mutineers of M23, confirms US ambassador James Entwistle (http://www.acpcongo.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9360)
I would have felt much better if the US acknowledge and condemn Rwanda's alleged assistance of the M23.
Amnesty international is now pushing for a arms embargo against the DRC .it looks like after the UNITED NATIONS ,the BBC and H.R.W accused RWANDA for its support for BOSCO and his criminal m23 movement, KAGAME and all the enemies of the CONGO have now turned to amnesty international for support .
Another complain from Amnesty.
Check it out;
http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news_details.asp?NewsID=20159
CHURUCHURU
Upset of people comments here. Most of you think that the solution to solve the M23 mutineer will be found if:
- Reports are issued by big organizations (by the way when UN Group of expert report will be available to complete the set??).
- Condemnation from super power (US, EU, Belgium , UN etc…) of the Rwanda support to M23
- If Monuc is involved in the fighting against M23
This show that majority of Congolese are not yet mature politically , still colonized in their mind by thinking that solution will come from overseas, don’t want to own their problems. Please be mature and try to resolve your own problems. No one again here is talking about FDLR and Mai Mai threat, the government irresponsibility and corruption.
Jason is aware of that so to keep the momentum he know very well which kind of news passionate Congolese politicians and readers ( talk, talk and publish news about CNDP before and now M23 news are becoming breaking news…)
Go Jason more news please we waiting your comment to Mende revelation….
@ anonym JUNE 12, 2012 5:24 AM,
I think the difference between the Fdlr and the M23 is that the former is inefficient and acts more like a bunch of common criminals while the later cause a massive movement of population and appear to be more keen to conquer and destroy.
Talking about political maturity, isn't puerile to take arms (use force) to get your point home? If you read carefully the 2009 accord you will notice that it was a tall order to ask this incompetent government to realize what he can't even in peaceful times.
I wish like you that the Congolese from the Cndp and M23 will be more mature and push their agenda politically(and economically) and not military. There is too many people who are willing to die to keep the Kivus in Drc, there are too many extremists who will profit to keep the ball rolling.
@anonym 5:24. I think it's important to engage the international community in solving the problem in Congo because they are also indirectly contributing to it with their financial and military support to Rwanda who are assisting the M23. The only way to resolve the problem of M23 is through military action, and if the M23 is getting support from outside why shouldnt the government of Congo not alert the global community. Please don't be naive.
@ congoman
Thanx 4 ur insight. Indeed, the enemies of Congolese people are desperate. Unlike before 2010, times have changed. Once totally broke, ridden with odious IMF & WB debt, friendless, Congo is slowly gaining confidence. The young FARC are reforming slowly. Proof: against all predictions, the FARDC are holding their ground, its the enemy (M23) that is now hiding on 2 hilltops bordering Rwanda. Importantly, more and more in the IC don’t buy the all-purpose FDLR excuse that Rwanda uses to run away from its responsibility, especially the respect of the current UN arms embargo against all non-state armed groups including the M23.
It is understandable therefore that the NGOs that earn their living from the continuing Congo-Holocaust, namely Amnesty Int’l and Int’l Crisis Group (ICG) , are putting their last weight into the anti-Congo battle. The now possible end of conflict in DRC is scary for many. Check, they always call 4 gimmicks (plans) to manage permanently rather than solve the conflict. In fact, they rehash periodically their same anti-Congo propaganda that they call reports? How do u explain that these 2 groups are calling in their latest bogus reports 4 an embargo against DRC, that is facing a mutiny, and not the unlawful armed groups (M23) that r causing so much suffering for our people, or not also against Rwanda that is supplying them with arms breaking the UN embargo?
muanacongo
I don't see those rapports as necessary a "conspiracy" against us. I think it's more poor opinions based on interesting facts. I believe they are advocating their solutions to a dire situation.
The fact are:
- Most Fardc are not paid ( some for months, even in as close to the front as Sud Kivu)
- Some officers are known for selling weapons and uniforms to Fdlr and Co.
- Those Fdlr are occupying the void left by the troops sent to the front
- Those Fdlr armed directly or indirectly by the Fardc are now killing innocent Congoleses.
Hence the logic of starving off the chain of violence.
I think we need to take our responsibilities and admit that there is something rotten among our leaders. We are not taking care of our soldiers and by extension, we are giving our enemies opportunities to defeat us.
I think Rwanda as his own problems. It's almost comical and irrelevant for me that 300 or so soldiers will resist a strong 7000 troops.
We want the end of this war but the question is does Jk want the same?
"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys.
Look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death!"
- Sun Tzu, the Art of War
@blaise:
JK doesn't want this, never wanted it.
mabye some one should make a list of all the companies - congolese and international- who are directly and indirectly involved in the trade and handling of all the ressources in the whole of eastern congo and see their link to which country: drc, uk, usa, etc etc. and study their transit zones (of course rwanda etc.)
than you will see that this wargames are distractions cause the local powers (rwda, ug) and international (usa, uk) have businness on their minds.
and the last report stated again and again that the mineral export in rwanda is booming, good for them, but tell me, you think minerals grow in banana trees rwanda?
the art of war now is the art of looting minerals from a country that is chronically at war.
Blaise -
I'm tempted to say having a strong army is not enough. In the same way I can say it is not easy to be in JK's position. Many wanted JK to arrest bosco, he just started to do it but now it revealed that bosco's handlers are allies of the powerful of this world. What would you do?
I can say that the peace deal he broke in 2009 bought him precious time to get something done with the army and this, in my opinion, has paid huge dividend when we look at recent performance of FARDC on the theater.
The man in charge of operations in Rutshuru is a person I know and I can confirm that he is a well experienced and fearless commander; one of the many great army commanders our army has but you've got to be realistic in this type of situation to not try and chew what's too hard than your teeth.
Looking at the rhetoric being put out there, I can sense a change in tone and it looks like people have had enough of the continous suffering the people of DRC have been through and that it is about time to leave the Congolese alone. here I'm referring to the US ambassador's message yesterday in Goma, the Catherine Ashton of the EU, Roger Meece of MONUSCO at the UN, Didier Rynders etc... I really hope they mean what they are saying between the lines, although they don't want to articulate them in undiplomatic terms.
Rich
Hi all,
Breaking news!
At the security council yesterday, Mr. Roger Meece has bravely acknowledged the cause of the suffering of Congolese people in the Kivus: ritual mutinies and rebellions from the same people. He specifically singled out the M23 gang who just broke the nascent peace and displaced millions of Congolese, just because they can. (Link: http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/DRC-rebellion-threatens-region-says-UN-20120613)
Now all expect the security council members to do the right thing and publicly condemn the instigator of these foreign mutineers and rebels: Rwanda’s kagame. But also ensure that Rwanda is 4 ever prevented from playing its macabre rebellion games in the Kivus.
muanacongo
@ Rich,
I completely agree that is not easy to be Jk but for other reasons. What would I do?
- stop handing cash to convince people not to defect
- making sure the soldiers are paid(bank system or any system)
- give back their honor to our soldiers.
When you have a solid foundation and determination, it won't matter if superpowers support your enemies. Zimbabwe is still standing, Cuba is going nowhere.
If I'm not wrong, soldiers have not been paid in the sud kivu for the two months, and they are in the front line. How about those in other provinces.How are we suppose to win the war like that? Did you read the report about soldiers raping pygmees in Province oriental?
I think, as the commander in chief, Jk is personally responsible for the Fardc failure to inspire fear to other nations. Rwanda alleged support to the M23 is a challenge but not an excuse to keep this farce for ever.
Blaise -
Part of what you say is right but part is mixed with unverified allegations.
Ref # "- stop handing cash to convince people not to defect"
I heard that but difficult to confirm.
Ref # "- making sure the soldiers are paid(bank system or any system)"
The reform they initiated was meant to assess the quality and quantity within our armed forces then set up reliable payment systems. This was always going to be an issue in places where you have parallel chains of command like the one used to be run by ex-cndp commanders.
Ref # "- give back their honor to our soldiers."
This is very so true, I spoke to many MPs to see if they can support a bill to legislate the about the honour of a DRC soldier. Still have a draft but not many seems interested.
Ref # "Rwanda alleged support to the M23 is a challenge but not an excuse to keep this farce for ever"
Are you presenting these two in a kind binary opposition? I would say they can overlap...
Rich
While all of us are talking about M23 (which seems doomed to failure), other terrible events are taking place and probably likely to shape the future of Kivu.
The alliance between Lafontaine and Albert Kahasha in South Lubero, a month ago. What struck me the most were small details :
- This is the very first time two mai mai from different tribes create an alliance.
- The presence of Albert Kahasha, who defected in january with 80 soldiers, and who is a proven warrior who showcased his ability against CNDP in Bukavu was going to bring some iron and military skills to these mai mai.
- The heavy losses they have caused to FARDC. The fact that more than 19 FARDC soldiers were killed in a single attack and more importantly the fact that they focused on fighting soldiers and sparing civilians was a surprise (at least for me). Another surprise was their focus on looting the camp and taking away all the ammunition, which indicates that they are working to strengthen themselves. For the past 15 years, we had been used to these naked warriors who believed more in their amulets rather than in any military discipline
- The facts that these heavy losses have gone unnoticed (neither the government nor other organizations commented on these terrible events). Even benilubero has remained tight-lipped about these events.
I am left wondering why such a critical attack with heavy losses is not commented upon, even by Jason...
My question is : Is this new UPCP a surrogate of M23 and Bosco or something else? If not (as I suspect), what's then the rationale of their behavior and how come that none seem interested to discuss about this alliance and its first impact on the FARDC?
-
I am sure the government can negotiate with the Mai Mai since they are Congolese. They can even collaborate to fight the M23. As long as we are able to kick out all the foreign element within the country and take back our territory.
Hi Jason,
Heavy fighting around Rutchuru.
M23 recovered more than three villages.
Some are saying Rumangabo may fall on M23's hand in short days if not hours.
Any updates on that?
That was Churuchuru.....
I would like to know approximately what percent of the North Kivu population are Kinyarwandan speakers.
The KINYARWANDA speakers are less than 1 percent of the eastern Congo population. they are concentrated in the RUCHURU and MASISI areas in north KIVU and in the Mulenge village in south kivu. The population of Eastern is approximately 40 millions and the kinyarwanda speaking are less than 150 thousands.
This is a pure lie, more than 40 percent of the North Kivu population is rwandophone, they are the second largest people after the Banande.
My husband, an emergency doctor who has spent time working in DRC and with midwives there sent this comment to me:
"The Georgianne Nienaber lady is indeed a master of the art of propaganda, whereby there is an always bad guy (Congo) versus an always flawless gud guy (Kagame), facts are shamelessly bent to meet the objective.'
I guess "Anonymous" has not read my work on both sides of this issue, dating back to 2004, not has he/she read my accounts of recent events in Walikale. (2011-2012)
I cannot change minds, but I do not want any Congolese who reads this to get the idea that myself or my family are anti-Congolese; neither are we anti Rwanda. We have adopted family on both sides of the border. The polarization of hate speech directed at both sides must stop.
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