I had been looking for some good video's of the UDPS's leader maximo's return on December 9th, 2010 - I finally found some yesterday. Whatever one may think of Tshisekedi, and bearing in mind that these roads are often full of people, this is very impressive.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Are the amendments to the constitution illegal?
There has been some healthy debate in the comments section (h/t to Rich and Julie M.) on whether the government was in its rights to amend the constitution. On the face of, nothing illegal has been committed -the text of the constitution was more or less followed (aside from some procedural irregularities - they didn't send the revision to the president for comments, etc).
The amendment process is also not in itself too exceptional - the French constitution, for example, also allows for the parliament united in a joint session to change the constitution with a 60% vote (it is much more difficult in the US).
Even some of the content of the proposed revisions is not too outlandish - as I have pointed out here before, countries like Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay and the Philippines elect their presidents in a one round, plurality-wins elections.
However, from a more principled stance, the revision is flawed. First, it appears that the government has amended the constitution not in the public interest, but so as to benefit private individuals. Holding just one round of elections will benefit President Kabila, as the vote will largely be a pro- or anti-Kabila vote, and in a one-round election, the opposition will split the anti-Kabila vote, making it easier for the incumbent to win. The justification that a one-round election will save money does not hold water - the country has to hold two rounds anyway so as to carry out provincial elections in February 2012. The other argument, that the country will be polarized by a two-round contest, is more defensible, but does not trump the fact that a one round election will give undue advantage to the incumbent (especially since the opposition is so divided). Also, while the 2006 election was very tense, the violence that did ensue was rarely East vs. West, but more due to local conflicts.
The speed at which the whole vote was carried out was also alarming, given that parliament was revising the founding document of the republic. On this count, the Republic of South Africa has a clause in its constitution that prevents any amendment from being voted on within 30 days of its submission to parliament.
The substance of the revisions are also questionable - some have argued that placing prosecutors under the authority of the ministry of justice violates the independence of the judiciary mandated by the constitution. I will leave this question to the constitutional experts, but in many European systems prosecutors are also appointed by ministries of justice; of course one can argue that those ministries are more accountable than the Congolese one, but at least pro forma they are not too far out in left field.
On the dissolution of provincial assemblies, however, and the removal of governors (after consultation with the council of ministers and parliament) I think they have gone too far. If a provincial assembly is democratically elected, and it then elects governors, the president should not unilaterally be able to remove these officials as he pleases. This was the debate in Pakistan over the years. The dictatorship of Zia allowed the president to dissolve provincial assemblies, a power that was controversial, suppressed by the 13th amendment and then restored by the 17th amendment under General Musharraf.
So the revision of the constitution should have been much more deliberate and thoughtful and should have taken into consideration the spirit of the law, not just the letter.
And, of course, Julie M. is right in pointing out that if MPs were bribed into passing the law, then it was illegal. But how to prove that?
The amendment process is also not in itself too exceptional - the French constitution, for example, also allows for the parliament united in a joint session to change the constitution with a 60% vote (it is much more difficult in the US).
Even some of the content of the proposed revisions is not too outlandish - as I have pointed out here before, countries like Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay and the Philippines elect their presidents in a one round, plurality-wins elections.
However, from a more principled stance, the revision is flawed. First, it appears that the government has amended the constitution not in the public interest, but so as to benefit private individuals. Holding just one round of elections will benefit President Kabila, as the vote will largely be a pro- or anti-Kabila vote, and in a one-round election, the opposition will split the anti-Kabila vote, making it easier for the incumbent to win. The justification that a one-round election will save money does not hold water - the country has to hold two rounds anyway so as to carry out provincial elections in February 2012. The other argument, that the country will be polarized by a two-round contest, is more defensible, but does not trump the fact that a one round election will give undue advantage to the incumbent (especially since the opposition is so divided). Also, while the 2006 election was very tense, the violence that did ensue was rarely East vs. West, but more due to local conflicts.
The speed at which the whole vote was carried out was also alarming, given that parliament was revising the founding document of the republic. On this count, the Republic of South Africa has a clause in its constitution that prevents any amendment from being voted on within 30 days of its submission to parliament.
The substance of the revisions are also questionable - some have argued that placing prosecutors under the authority of the ministry of justice violates the independence of the judiciary mandated by the constitution. I will leave this question to the constitutional experts, but in many European systems prosecutors are also appointed by ministries of justice; of course one can argue that those ministries are more accountable than the Congolese one, but at least pro forma they are not too far out in left field.
On the dissolution of provincial assemblies, however, and the removal of governors (after consultation with the council of ministers and parliament) I think they have gone too far. If a provincial assembly is democratically elected, and it then elects governors, the president should not unilaterally be able to remove these officials as he pleases. This was the debate in Pakistan over the years. The dictatorship of Zia allowed the president to dissolve provincial assemblies, a power that was controversial, suppressed by the 13th amendment and then restored by the 17th amendment under General Musharraf.
So the revision of the constitution should have been much more deliberate and thoughtful and should have taken into consideration the spirit of the law, not just the letter.
And, of course, Julie M. is right in pointing out that if MPs were bribed into passing the law, then it was illegal. But how to prove that?
Senate passes the constitutional revision
Another step has been taken to make serious changes to the Congolese constitution: Today, the senate passed the 8 revisions with 71 votes out of 108. Kabila's AMP coalition accounts for roughly 58 senators (give or take a few), and they often get another dozen votes from independent senators. Nonetheless, I didn't expect this to go through so quickly - for a body that takes months to debate insignificant laws, passing a major overhaul of the country's founding document in a few days is disheartening.
They are now saying that the senate and national assembly will be convened tomorrow to vote on the revision together - they have to pass the proposed amendments with 60% of both chambers together, which seems all but certain.
It's important to highlight that this will not just change the electoral system - from a to round run-off system to a one round, plurality-win election - but also gives the president the ability to dissolve provincial assemblies, remove governors and call referenda. The minister of justice will also have official control over the prosecutor's office. In short, the presidency is made more powerful. One can imagine the provincial MPs will be more reluctant to press for decentralization of revenue, as required by the constitution, if the president can kick them out and call a new provincial election. The prosecutors - who are already not known for aggressive steps against abusive officials - will be even more reluctant to press charges against them now.
Such provisions do exist in other constitutions, but in the context of the Congo they will lead to a dangerous centralization of power in the presidency, which has shown little interest thus far in combating impunity and securing its citizens' rights.
They are now saying that the senate and national assembly will be convened tomorrow to vote on the revision together - they have to pass the proposed amendments with 60% of both chambers together, which seems all but certain.
It's important to highlight that this will not just change the electoral system - from a to round run-off system to a one round, plurality-win election - but also gives the president the ability to dissolve provincial assemblies, remove governors and call referenda. The minister of justice will also have official control over the prosecutor's office. In short, the presidency is made more powerful. One can imagine the provincial MPs will be more reluctant to press for decentralization of revenue, as required by the constitution, if the president can kick them out and call a new provincial election. The prosecutors - who are already not known for aggressive steps against abusive officials - will be even more reluctant to press charges against them now.
Such provisions do exist in other constitutions, but in the context of the Congo they will lead to a dangerous centralization of power in the presidency, which has shown little interest thus far in combating impunity and securing its citizens' rights.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
The glass is half full
I came across this IMF report on progress made by the Congolese government on its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). It's pretty brazen in its blinkered optimism, but worthwhile glancing at, if only to see what the government will be saying going into the election campaign. The figures are for 2009, but many are relevant today.
They include somewhat ridiculous statements like:
But there were also some real accomplishments, although I would emphasize that this is apparently a ministry of planning (Olivier Kamitatu) report, not an IMF one, letterhead notwithstanding:
There was an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) report; the repair of several turbines at the Inga dam, as well as the installation of power facilities in Kananga and Kindu; the modernization and regularization of fiscal management (they apparently brought emergency expenditures under the regular budgetary process); the construction and repair of courts, prisons and administrative buildings.
Here are some other figures we are sure to hear more of soon:
They include somewhat ridiculous statements like:
With respect to security, operations successfully reestablished peace and the government’s authority in the eastern and western parts of the country (the Goma peace accord, the Amani Programme for the Security, Pacification, Stabilization and Reconstruction of the Kivu Provinces, the joint Umoja Wetu operation with Rwanda, Kimia I and II, Operation Amani Leo, and the assimilation (brassage), disarmament, demobilization, and integration of ex-combatants).This is for 2009, mind you, when military operations displaced a million people in the Kivus and killed thousands of civilians.
But there were also some real accomplishments, although I would emphasize that this is apparently a ministry of planning (Olivier Kamitatu) report, not an IMF one, letterhead notwithstanding:
There was an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) report; the repair of several turbines at the Inga dam, as well as the installation of power facilities in Kananga and Kindu; the modernization and regularization of fiscal management (they apparently brought emergency expenditures under the regular budgetary process); the construction and repair of courts, prisons and administrative buildings.
Here are some other figures we are sure to hear more of soon:
- Primary school enrollment went from 64% to 84% between 2006 and 2008 (sounds a bit too miraculous)
- Under five mortality was reduced from 172 to 148 per thousand over the same period
- Maternal mortality fell from 1,289 to 944 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2008
- 22,900 kilometers of roads were completed (both paved and non-paved)
- 12,000 children working in mines were removed
The report is obviously heavily spun and leaves out the huge failures to provide services, combat impunity and restore peace. Most of the initiatives that the government claims responsibility for were largely planned and executed by foreign partners and donors.
I find it a bit objectionable that the IMF would publish such a document under its own letterhead - it takes a few seconds to realize that this is really a Congolese document. I guess all in the name of local ownership and collaboration.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Addendum: Constitutional Revision
The exact vote count (h/t Rich) on the constitutional revision was 334 for, 1 against and 2 abstentions. The rest of the MPs apparently walked out in protest.
For those looking for the actual proposed revisions, you can find them in two parts here and here along with the government's justification. They have proposed revising eight articles:
For those looking for the actual proposed revisions, you can find them in two parts here and here along with the government's justification. They have proposed revising eight articles:
- the election of the president (one round instead of two)
- allowing MPs who become ministers and then lose their job to go back to being MPs
- allowing the government to obtain provisional credits if the budget isn't voted in time
- placing the prosecutor's office (parquet) under the authority of the minister of justice
- allowing the president to dissolve the provincial assemblies and revoke governors
- giving the power to the president to call a referendum
- postponing the creation of 26 provinces out of the current 11
Constitutional revision passed in the national assembly
The news just in from Kinshasa: The constitutional revision passed the national assembly today with 350 out of 500 votes. The Palais du Peuple got a bit chaotic when a fistfight broke out on the podium between opposition and majority MPs, but the vote eventually passed. Already there are accusations that the votes were bought in order to make this one of the fastest legislative acts of the national assembly (talk of $20,000 per MP) - it passed in just a few days, and apparently violated legal process as it was not sent to the government for comments before adoption.
Three hundred and fifty is pretty impressive, for more than the official total of AMP members in parliament - apparently they even got a few MLC members to vote for the revision, which again elicited accusations of bribery.
The proposed revision must now go to the senate. Given, however, that the current session closes in two days, some MPs doubt that the senate will have time to pass the revision and will have to take it up again in March when it comes back from vacation. But Kabila's AMP only needs 51% of the vote there, which is should have, and then 60% in a joint session of both chambers, which it should have, as well.
So what were the changes? I believe there were 18 articles put forward for changes, but I haven't seen the full list yet. The most important change was of course in the electoral system - the president is now elected by a plurality vote in one round of elections instead of two. He can win even with 15% or 20% of the vote, as long as he's ahead of his competitors.
Other changes include giving the minister of justice authority over the prosecutor's office, a power that exists in many other countries but that the Congolese constitution had thus far prevented - I am sure that critics will also claim that this change is anti-constitutional, as per Article 220 the independence of the judiciary cannot be tampered with through constitutional revisions.
The creation of 26 provinces out of the 11 current ones - a process known as découpage - has also been put on hold. Even though the constitution still says that these provinces will be created (Article 2), the period of 3 years over which this must be done (that has expired) has been removed.
Other changes are in the budgetary process (the president can ask for temporary credits if the budget isn't adopted in time) and in allowing the president to dissolve the provincial assemblies and revoke governors.
Three hundred and fifty is pretty impressive, for more than the official total of AMP members in parliament - apparently they even got a few MLC members to vote for the revision, which again elicited accusations of bribery.
The proposed revision must now go to the senate. Given, however, that the current session closes in two days, some MPs doubt that the senate will have time to pass the revision and will have to take it up again in March when it comes back from vacation. But Kabila's AMP only needs 51% of the vote there, which is should have, and then 60% in a joint session of both chambers, which it should have, as well.
So what were the changes? I believe there were 18 articles put forward for changes, but I haven't seen the full list yet. The most important change was of course in the electoral system - the president is now elected by a plurality vote in one round of elections instead of two. He can win even with 15% or 20% of the vote, as long as he's ahead of his competitors.
Other changes include giving the minister of justice authority over the prosecutor's office, a power that exists in many other countries but that the Congolese constitution had thus far prevented - I am sure that critics will also claim that this change is anti-constitutional, as per Article 220 the independence of the judiciary cannot be tampered with through constitutional revisions.
The creation of 26 provinces out of the 11 current ones - a process known as découpage - has also been put on hold. Even though the constitution still says that these provinces will be created (Article 2), the period of 3 years over which this must be done (that has expired) has been removed.
Other changes are in the budgetary process (the president can ask for temporary credits if the budget isn't adopted in time) and in allowing the president to dissolve the provincial assemblies and revoke governors.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Bad omens for the electoral season
The New Year has not kicked off well in the Congo. At least in electoral terms. After Vital Kamerhe was prevented from holding rallies in Goma and Bukavu - authorities argued that the campaign season had not yet begun - the opposition in Kinshasa was briefly prevented from meeting in Kinshasa to discuss a joint stance on the proposed constitutional revision (they eventually met and denounced it).
Then, a journalist for the CCTV TV station was reportedly arrested in Bas-Congo after organizing a debate on Kabila's presidency (the governor's office says he was arrested for other reasons). In Uvira, a journalist was arrested for ten days following a radio program during which he criticized the president and the local administrator. Another journalist who participated in the same program has been living in hiding since then.
Then, a journalist for the CCTV TV station was reportedly arrested in Bas-Congo after organizing a debate on Kabila's presidency (the governor's office says he was arrested for other reasons). In Uvira, a journalist was arrested for ten days following a radio program during which he criticized the president and the local administrator. Another journalist who participated in the same program has been living in hiding since then.
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