I did a quick back-of-the-envelope analysis to figure out how many seats Kabila's presidential coalition has won. The problem is, the president's strategy was to multiply the number of parties in his coalition, so now it's difficult to see through the thicket of parties to understand where their allegiances lie.
If I'm not mistaken, a total of 94 parties have won seats, along with numerous independent candidates. (The full list is here). Based on the April charter of the majorité présidentielle, along with public statements, I figure that Kabila's coalition has won at least 245 seats so far, out of the 424 announced. Of course, coalitions could shift, and these are only provisional results, based on a charter in April that was quickly made obsolete by the emergence of many new parties supporting Kabila. The majorité présidentielle has already declared that they have more than 250 seats.
Also, I am sure many will contest the results given the many reported incidents of fraud, we are still awaiting 76 seats to be announced, and 7 electoral districts have seen their vote cancelled.
Here are the main parties:
Kabila's coalition:
PPRD (Led by Evariste Boshab) 58 seats
PPPD (Ngoma Binda) 27
MSR (Pierre Lumbi) 25
PALU (Antoine Gizenga) 16
ARC (Olivier Kamitatu) 14
AFDC (Modeste Bahati) 12
ECT 10
MIP (Colette Tshomba) 9
PDC (José Endundo) 7
UNAFEC (Kyungu wa Kumwanza)
UNADEF (Charles Mwando Simba) 6
UDCO (Banza Mukalay) 6
ADH (Jean-Claude Baende) 5
NAD (Athanase Matenda) 5
CCU (Lambert Mende) 5
COFEDEC (Venant Tshipasa) 4
Plus many smaller parties....
Opposition:
UDPS (Etienne Tshisekedi) 34
MLC (Jean-Pierre Bemba) 20
UNC (Vital Kamerhe) 16
UFC (Kengo wa Dondo) 3
UDECF (Pierre Pay-Pay) 4
ATD (José Makila) 4
Plus other smaller parties...
I may have gotten something wrong, feel free to correct me.
Friday, January 27, 2012
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33 comments:
"I am sure many will contest the results given the many reported incidents of fraud." If opposition candidates contest to the Supreme court, can we really expect unbiased hearings of their cases?
@Anand. Hard to say - I obviously have my doubts, but let's not pre-judge the process.
Ar any rate, the presidential majority lost a lot of seats (386 in 2006).Negociations will be hard. Muzito, who has been reelected, is going to be a big problem : many diplomats complaint about his totally corrupted behavior.Olivier Kamitatu might have a chance since Pierre Lumbi is, like J. Kabila, from the east
Anand -
I think it will also depend on the makeup of the uncontested seats. I am tempted to think if Kabila's coalition manages more than 250 uncontested seats then they may keep out from interfering with the Supreme Court proceedings.
Even when that is the case, there will always be the risk of seeing the Supreme Court not performing well due to an existing culture of inefficiency, corruption and neglect. In other words, I’d hope the Supreme Court’s problems, this time round to be of admin or internal shortfalls nature than political interferences. I guess we shall wait and see and the other thing is, the perception of a given judgement can change from one person to another why not from one political standing point to another?
Chronologies -
It is true the presidential majority may have lost seats but given the new configuration (the presidential majority has diversify the quality and quantity of its affiliated parties and members) the nature of this loss still quite unclear. However, there is no doubt the majority has lost some of its key players. Now, coming back to your point about negotiations, I agree these will be tough going and there will be plenty of unhappy faces within the majority and I can anticipate some unpopular decisions coming to challenge the majority/coalition all along the coming legislature...
Rich
@Jason - You'e right. Best to let things play out. But, if I were an opposition candidate, I might be a little understandably wary (and weary). Thanks so much for the reporting, by the way.
@Rich - Thanks for the deeper insight into the court's functionality. I do think that the climate on the street affects the decisions of people in power though. Sometimes objectivity gets swept up in the political fervor of the day. So political interference need not always be direct in nature. Here's hoping that the court holds true to the ideals of law.
Dear Jason,
Thanks for your analysis. Things will continue as they are. Unfortunately, few people have reported on the clear fraud for UDPS in Kasai where Tshisekedi goons have not allowed candidates to run. Several candidates in Mbuyi-Mayi had to either hide or were attacked. This has allowed UDPS members to claim to have won these seats in an election that do not recognize...
In 2006 the Supreme Court did invalidate the election of some prominent MPs in the weeks following their validation by the General Assembly, due to a variety of alleged fraudulent acts. I'll not be surprised if similar invalidations happen in this case as well.
Glad to see that the political game (coalition building) will not be easy. Such exercises do not leave the political class unchanged. That's a good thing generally for the maturation of democratic institutions.
The link to the MP April Charter is not accurate. It links to the Ceni list of elected members of parliament. Thanks for the posting.
Hi Jason,
Do you have any idea where Kabila is for the moment?
A lot of rumours going on.... He is in china, he got paralyzed and he is on treatment....etc
Sno2
Goma
The rumors about Kabila ended when he was seen driving his jeep in Kinshasa 2 days ago.
Hi Jason I hope you'll be able to update the post now that all results are announced (bar massive number of claim frauds of course)
Thanks for this Jason. This is the first step towards the epilogue of the tragically laughable electoral process. We will now probably see a few cases taken to the Supreme Court. Where not too politically sensitive, the Court will probably look at those cases somehow objectively to buy itself a name, and reject the most sensitive ones. And life will go on, unfortunately just as it used to. Hopefully, in a few weeks time, Congo will even have a 2012 budget with which to work!
What I make of this whole process is far from positive:
- There is no will for the people in power to follow anything close to a democratic process. There is therefore no will for the same people to sometime question their current approach and consequences on the population.
- I'm alarmed about how this massive fraud happened easily, and without strong challenge from anyone, particularly at the Presidential elections level. Yes, we've heard a lot of donors and other institutions screaming "boooo" to the ghost, but very little, if any, concrete action to do anything about it.
- Part of the explanation of the passivity of the international community is because of the tensed situation in the East. Clearly Tshisekedi was no strong candidate with this regard, his extremist speeches towards Rwanda only discredited him as a "peace-builder", while what both the Kivus population and international donors are looking for is stability. To make shortcuts, instability in the East benefits a lot to Kabila, so why should he do anything strong about it?
- These elections confirmed one tragic truth about DRCongo: its lack of strong, inspiring and coherent leadership. Looking at all candidates, from majority to opposition, it is hard to find anyone with a real and clear vision for the country, who could eventually get popular adherence beyond tribal and regionalistic preferences. Tshisekedi in particular was surprisingly one of Kabila's best cards. In Eastern DRC, Tshisekedi was never taken seriously, particularly with his extremist anti-Rwandan speeches. The Eastern DRC population doesn't like Rwandans, but hates war even more, and such speeches ring a dark bell in their minds. His speech about "arresting the President alive", and his auto-nomination in his living room only brought laughter to the Kivu's population faces. Unless we see a new breed of politicians emerging both from the inside and the diaspora, who are total strangers to the old regime and elephants of the Congolese political way (corruption, lack of vision, ruling on divisionism), I'm afraid we won't see change in the DRC any time soon.
Did I mention I'm pessimistic for the future? Sad...
@ Anonymous FEBRUARY 2, 2012 2:00 AM
We need samples of these extremist anti Rwanda speeches. This is an accusation that can be easily proven, where is the proof ? What was the nature of the extremist content of these speeches towards Rwanda? I do not recall a speech by ET addressed to Rwanda during the electoral campaign. You say, “-The Eastern DRC population doesn't like Rwandans, but hates war even more, and such speeches ring a dark bell in their minds-“. What speeches, this is a cheap accusation. You say that - The Eastern DRC population doesn't like Rwandans and that both the people and the International community want stability-. Then again if the people in the East do not like Rwandans as you say, why should the same people not have a receptive ear for these speeches, after all these speeches(if they exist) are against an entity they do not like. You say,”-instability in the East benefits a lot to Kabila, so why should he do anything strong about it?” It is then ironical to me that the same people who are the main victims of this instability in the East would vote massively for the person who in your own analysis benefits from the said instability and would not do much about it thus keeping the people in the East miserable and under siege. In the mean time, the International community which wants stability in the East is supporting the person who benefits from the instability and would not do much to change the status quo. This is indeed confusing!!!!.I agree with you when you say, “-There is no will from the people in power to follow anything close to a democratic process” and I share your concern when you say, “-I'm alarmed about how this massive fraud happened easily”. It is not possible under these circumstances to know the real weight of Kamerhe, JK and ET and by the way any legitimate political player in DRC, no matter their plan for the future,their vision...., given this “-tragically laughable electoral process-“, as you put it so well.
Bismark
When I say extremist speech, I am talking about the constant allegations he uses in the tone of an insult saying "Kabila is Rwandan", as if every issue the DRC faces is linked to the allegated "Rwandan" nationality of JK. In a country that has suffered so much from war, in a country where there is still a large resentment towards the role that Rwanda played in it, this is clearly playing the nationalist card in favor of regional divisionism. Please mind I am not making assumptions here, I am just reporting daily conversations I've had with people from the Kivus, tens and hundreds of them, and they all had the same image of Tshisekedi: old, doesn't have all his head anymore, and most of all dangerous for peace. Just to make sure I won't have to justify such an evidence again, this from the UDPS website: La chanson fétiche « Ya Tshitshi zongisa ye na Rwanda (Etienne Tshisekedi expulse-le [Joseph Kabila] au Rwanda [son pays d’origine]) a dominé la manifestation jusqu’au moment au l’icône de l’opposition congolaise, Etienne Tshisekedi, introduit une autre chanson populaire : « Kabila na fandi na ye mbula na mbula, tata na ye toyebi te, mama na ye toyebi te, zoka aza Rwandais ! » C’est l’euphorie, la foule chante en cœur avec lui.
For the rest, I invite you to better read what I wrote, as I have never said that the population from the Kivus voted Kabila. I just said that most of them haven't voted Tshisekedi. We all know how many candidates there were for the presidential and legislative elections, so assuming someone who doesn't vote for Tshisekedi votes for Kabila is a huge shortcut. In South Kivu, many voted for Kamerhe in example, and each Province had its favorite other than Kabila or Tshitshi. All I'm trying to say here is that it was a big mistake from the opposition to choose Tshitshi as its main candidate, as clearly the campaign showed that at best he couldn't rally voices passed his regional attachments, at worst he gave a good reason for many Congolese and international observers to further find reasons to laugh about these elections. His communication strategy -if he had any- was a disaster!
The same goes for the international community. It doesn't support JK as it has showed it enough in these last months, this statement facing a reality check shows that your opinion is somehow biased. What I am trying to say is that the international community realizes the elections were fraud, is definitely not happy with JK, but facing a lack of solid opponent capable of uniting behind him, faces a lack of alternatives to support. It's not enough saying "i don't like someone" to wish for someone else to take his place and support this, one also needs to find that someone, and to my great sadness, these elections showed that such a man doesn't exist yet on the Congolese political scene.
So I stand by what I say. The population from the East doesn't like the too strong influence Rwanda has on their lives. But they are tired of wars, and know where open confrontation with Rwanda on the sensitive Kivus issue leads: to war, like in 1998, or to presidential assassinations, like in 2001. The vast majority is against JK, but couldn't find a solid candidate to turn to instead. Many voted Kamerhe, but he failed to rally beyond the Kivus, and I believe rightfully, as he also showed his weaknesses and corruption level, in example on the assistance to the victims of the Sange accident issue.
I am honestly hoping for more credible candidates to be present in the presidential race during the next elections, else it will be bound to follow the same path as the current ones.
I.
In the mind of thisekedi supporters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBfILF9XeT4&feature=youtu.be
Rich
Hi Guys,
If European and American leaders want to convince their citizen for unjustified bombardment and war they all have got the same singing "War against Terrorism".
If any opposition political leader who want to get much support from DRCongo citizens (against Kabila) he/she should relate Kabila as a Rwandan origin.
I use to hear a proverb "When two elephants fight, the grass suffer" Nowadays time comes to witness "when the grass fight to grow, the elephant start suffering" - The grass is the FDLR militias and the Rwanda gov backed Rwandan in Congo, then the elephant is DRCongo.
The solution is in Congolese arm - get together - Remove FDLR and stay safe with Rwandan.
Sno2
Goma
Rich,
Your attitude is always ambiguous concerning ET and Rwanda in general. You will not stop at anything to defend Rwanda. You are so allergic to anything that is said vs Rwanda, aren't you ?
You can't have a serious debate with cult members, for this peoples CHISEKEDI is a saint and there is no ether god but YA CHICHI . For the last 20 years ET CHISEKEDI have been runing his UDPS like a Cult and for his followers,most of them from Kasai, this man is god and no one has the right to challenge or question his ideas or decision. Debating with this guys is a waste of time .
@ ANON 2 FEB. 2012, 2:00 AM
There are some interesting points you made comments, albeit riddled with terrible contradictions/inconsistencies. Your post left me scratching my head as to which message exactly you intended to put across. I don’t know whether you see them as such, so let me point out some:
1) You say: “Clearly Tshisekedi was no strong candidate with this regard, his extremist speeches towards Rwanda only discredited him as a "peace-builder", while what both the Kivus population and international donors are looking for is stability. To make shortcuts, INSTABILITY IN THE EAST BENEFITS A LOT TO KABILA, so why should he do anything strong about it?” (Capitals mine)
Kivutians are looking for stability. Fine. The question is: as we speak now, is there any stability in the Kivus: yes or no? NO. At the same time, you claim that instability does benefit Kabila. (Logically, he should hardly be trusted to pacify the Kivus) And yet you maintain that the Kivutians and the international community think that it’s only Kabila, not Tshisekedi (supposedly because of his so-called anti-Rwandan speeches), who’ll bring about stability. Finallly what are you talking about? You just can’t have things both ways!
2) You assert: “In Eastern DRC, Tshisekedi was never taken seriously, particularly with his extremist anti-Rwandan speeches. The Eastern DRC population doesn't like Rwandans”.
Again my friend, how can you say one thing in a sentence and its exact opposite in the following one, is beyond me. ET is against the Rwandans, the Easterners also are against Rwandans. Your conclusion: Easterners don’t take ET seriously because of their common anti-Rwanda sentiment!
3) Furthermore, you state the following: “Looking at all candidates, from majority to opposition, it is hard to find anyone with a real and clear vision for the country, who could eventually get popular adherence beyond tribal and regionalistic preferences.”
This view of yours that none of the 11 candidates had massive support beyond “tribal and regionalistic preferences” is belied by Kabila’s official showing in Bandundu and Tshisekedi’s performance in Bas-Congo, to take but these two examples. I think what you say here is true just for all candidates (such as Kamerhe, Mbusa, Kengo, etc.) but Kabila and Tshisekedi.
(to be continued)
Bruno
4) “it was a big mistake from the opposition to choose Tshitshi as its main candidate, as clearly the campaign showed that at best he couldn't rally voices passed his regional attachments, at worst he gave a good reason for many Congolese and international observers to further find reasons to laugh about these elections.”
Which “opposition” are you talking about? Are you talking about the coalition of parties that supported Tshisekedi, something like 80 small political parties, or the Opposition CANDIDATES rallying behind ET? To refresh your memory, NO Presidential candidate supported ET and NOT ALL Opposition political parties backed the UDPS leader. What do you call “regional attachments” when it comes to Tshisekedi? I suppose you’re talking about the two Kasais. Ok. Then, tell us: why, even by CENI’s fraudulent results, would ET have such a commanding lead in Kinshasa and Bas-Congo, come second in Equateur, if he only had support in his “regional attachments”? Is Kinshasa and Bas-Congo predominantly populated by the Lubas?
5) “…and each Province had its favorite other than Kabila or Tshitshi”
It’s simply not true. Some Provinces (like Bas-Congo and Bandundu) simply had no STRONG candidate having national stature in the race. So, they understandably didn’t waste their votes and simply voted either for Kabila or Tshitshi.
6) Ref. “I have never said that the population from the Kivus voted Kabila”… “The population from the East doesn't like the too strong influence Rwanda has on their lives. But they are tired of wars, and know where open confrontation with Rwanda on the sensitive Kivus issue leads: to war, like in 1998, or to presidential assassinations, like in 2001.”
Actually you seem to actually be saying that the population in the Kivus doesn’t like Kabila but opted to settle for him for the reason Alex Engwete once gave: lack of alternatives. (I don’t even take Kamerhe into account, for he still has a long way to go before developing a NATIONAL stature).
Does this not smack of the Congolese in Kivus reasoning something like: ‘we know we don’t like the Rwandans, but let’s be careful not to opt for somebody else than Kabila, because otherwise the Rwandans will make war on us or kill the President we choose’?
That’s why Congolese at large equally resent the Rwandans and Kabila (and ET just made political capital of out that, for electioneering purposes). Rwanda is resented because IT IS OFFERING PEACE TO THE CONGOLESE AT GUNPOINT. This “Pax Rwandana” is definitely not PEACE !!!! Kabila is resented because he’s doing nothing to check in Rwandan influence and actually seems to be aiding and abetting it.
Bruno
@ Anonymous FEBRUARY 2, 2012 12:31 PM
“In a country that has suffered so much from war, in a country where there is still a large resentment towards the role that Rwanda played in it, this is clearly playing the nationalist card in favor of regional divisionism”.
I suppose that this “nationalist card in favor of regional divisionism” is directed towards Rwanda, if that is the case, I fail to see how being nationalistic contributes to regional divisionism in a country that is suffering from an undercover occupation by its neighbors’ to the East. The DRC elections last year were first an internal affair, I fail to see why appealing to nationalism in this context “favors regional divisionism”. Was there a need to cajole our neighbor to the East by hiding our nationalism in order not to offend it? I am at a loss…. .In this context, it is actually important that the feeling of belonging to a nation called DRC be reinforced and cultivated.
The “chanson fetiche” was not invented by ET nor did he lead in the singing of this song and others. This song and others during the electoral campaign were the product of the creative mind of DRC citizens in the Diaspora and in the DRC. I did not know that saying “go back to Rwanda” in the case of the “chanson fetiche” as you put it, was an insult and extreme. In 1997, JK physically came from Rwanda with the AFDL soldiers in their plastic boots and their allies. This is a fact. So when people say send him back to Rwanda, it simply means send him back where he physically came from. What is extreme and insulting in saying this? It is like saying “ hey, Bush, go back to Texas man” is that an insult.
Bismark
@ Anonymous FEBRUARY 2, 2012 12:31 PM CONTINUED
I will also invite you to better read what I wrote as I never claimed that you said that the population from the Kivus voted Kabila. This is what the fraudulent Ceni says happened.
I do not agree with you when you say, “it was a big mistake from the opposition to choose Tshitshi as its main candidate”. There were several candidates from the opposition (kamerhe,Kengo, Mbusa Nyamuisi…) during the last presidential elections in the DRC. There is an opinion that believes strongly that the opposition failed because it was not able to choose a common candidate.
I will also beg to differ when you say that, “clearly the campaign showed that at best he couldn't rally voices passed his regional attachments”. I suppose you mean the Kasai regions; going by the fraudulent Ceni results for the past elections, ET received about 5,800,000 voices. Out of these about 2,100.000 came from the Kasai region considered his “regional attachments” by many. The rest over 3,700.000 almost twice more, came from other parts of the DRC proving that ET could rally voices past his “regional attachments”. You said,” Many voted Kamerhe, but he failed to rally beyond the Kivus” this can be confirmed by the fraudulent Ceni results. It will be an example of not having an appeal past ones ”regional attachments”
I choose not to be pessimistic about the DRC, I believe that there is an awakening within the Congolese people (inside and outside of the DRC) that in my eyes is going to surprise a lot of the doom sayers.
“At worst he(ET) gave a good reason for many Congolese and international observers to further find reasons to laugh about these elections”, you said, I thought that people were laughing a these elections because of things like the loss of 1.300.000 ballots, ghost voting stations, “doublons”, ballots with the number 11 cut off from the list, people with ballots in their possession all over the country before the elections,100% voting for number 3 in some of his “regional attachments”/ Katanga, ballots being left out under the rain in the compilation centers, the list goes on and on. I am surprise to learn from you that the fact that ET took part in these elections that turned out to be a “tragically laughable electoral process” in your own words, “gave a good reason to Congolese and International Observers to laugh at these elections” …. This is actually comical to say the least.
“Respect” to Bruno for the incisiveness
Bismark
Hi,
Lots of comments here, most under which it seems my choice of words is debated rather than the idea expressed. I'll therefore try to clarify those, as it's a very interesting debate.
I'd like to start by making sure everybody understands the position I'm defending here. I'm advocating for no candidate, and on the contrary find that the lack of consistency of all was one of the main concerns here.
I don't believe there is stability in the Kivus currently. Yet if we look back in history, we have to recognize that, on the official scene, the relations between the DRC and Rwanda have improved compared to as recent as 2007, where it was still impossible to even mention a collaboration between the two countries without seing new MM groups created in the Kivus in reaction. Today, both governments regularly meet on different points of collaboration, and this is a must, as no solution to the FDLR -but also other groups such as the ex-CNDP- problem can be found without a strong implication from Rwanda. What remains a strong point of concern is the "unofficial" relations between the 2 countries, which is creating instability.
So I don't think JK is the best asset in terms of stability in the East, as again I'm not sure it's in his real interest, but at least he maintains this image at the international level, and in the Kivus, the absence of official hatred rhetoric against Rwanda and of renewed dialogue is already a visible change. A few concrete daily life examples if the Goma border now open 24/24, the Bukavu border open until 10 pm, etc...
I fail to see what is surprising or contradictory in this statement, the strategy is as old as politics exist, and in Congo the best related example is Mobutu, who used internal rebellions in the East he willingly let create, to then appear as a peace-builder and uniter when he managed to extinguish the fire he lit himself... until the fire got out of control.
Coming to ET, please stop taking my word on how his speeches were perceived in the Kivus as my personal opinion. I'm just sharing what I heard daily in the streets and bars during the campaign.
I'm having issues further explaining how saying "Kabila go back to Rwanda" is inflammatory, as it seems so obvious to me. This statement attacks both Kabila for being allegedly Rwandan, and Rwanda for allegedly colonizing the DRC in an unsaid manner.
People should learn from their history, else it's bound to repeat itself over and over again. The last person who openly said "go back to Rwanda" was called Laurent Desire, and unfortunately this resulted in the deaths of millions, including his. I'm not saying it is right, far from it, I'm just reminding facts. Today, the DRC doesn't have the strength to get into a confrontation with Rwanda, who's army is much stronger than in 2008, versus the DRC "army" which is still largely untrained and lacks unity. The only way to come to a balanced relation with Rwanda is to carefully use negotiation skills, and to gradually get there finding "win-win" agreements with this country. If you believe confrontation with Rwanda is more sustainable today than in 1998, I'm afraid this is delusion.
Point 2) is answered above, and also if you read the whole sentence instead only half of it. It said "the East doesn't like Rwanda. It hates war even more". So again, ET with his extreme public positioning did not present himself as the candidate capable of leading these tricky negotiations with Rwanda in a peaceful and productive manner, part of the reasons why he did not manage to get strong support in the Kivus.
Coming to point 4) of course, every candidate managed to have a certain number of votes outside his Province of origin, but when I mean rallying, I mean getting enough external votes for this to mean something conclusive in the results. I would have agreed with you if ET had managed to get enough votes to be a serious threat to the majority. The results of these elections are flawed, but in order for the "tricherie" to justify the rather large difference obtained at a national level between ET and JK, the fraud should have been much wider than what was reported.
I'm no electoral expert, but according to the different reports I've read, the fraud was designed to give JK a large score enough to better settle his position at all levels - the more votes you get, the more representative you are viewed, but not sufficient to completely alter the results.
This is why, looking at the results, and also seeing the little enthusiasm ET raised during his visit to the crucial Kivu Provinces (I have visually witnessed it, I was there), I believe he failed to rally enough beyond his electoral base in the Kasais.
For Kinshasa, his support is easily explainable by the fact that the Kinshasa population relates to him, he has spent most of his life in Kin and always had the town's support, in 2006 Kinshasa was voting in part for ET and in part for Bemba. Let's not forget Kinshasa is naturally less regionalist or tribalist than the other Provinces, as a mixture of people coming from everywhere live in the capital.
I fully agree with you that ET did better than others, mainly because he was presented as the opposition's candidate and therefore the productive vote for people unhappy with JK. But this wasn't enough, or so it seems.
By mentioning the opposition chose ET as main candidate, I am talking about most opposition parties but MLC and UNC who designated him as their candidate end of August 2011. Let's not debate history by debating this. It was the first wrong move of the opposition.
One because, as I said, it was evident from the start that he would have issues rallying the voters of the East, and the East is crucial for the elections.
Also because, by doing so, and leaving UNC and MLC out, the opposition was bound to lose the presidential elections. With the one turn elections, the only chance for the opposition was to come united under one candidate. Go with 3, and you get 300% chances to lose, against JK who had a strong campaign machine all over the country, with many "notables" in place and profitting from his ruling to campaign in his name.
Point 5) was I believed answered above, when answering the one about no candidate rallying enough votes. Of course, each Province didn't have it's own candidate (thanks God there wasn't enough candidates for this), but each had its preferences, generally based on alliance or acquaintances rather than the program or vision for the country.
Point 6 from Bruno: yes, this is exactly what I meant, lack of alternatives. Most of the people I know were strongly in favor of UNC (but at a national level I'm afraid Kamerhe burnt his wings by working for JK for too long), but when asked would you prefer ET or JK, were answering JK for the fear of what ET can bring on their heads - any issue with Rwanda has very strong and direct consequences on their lives, and none on the lives of the people living in Kinshasa-.
Last, of course people were mainly laughing about the fake ballots etc... But I must tell you the reaction to the speech where ET called for JK to be brought to him alive. Many laughed and simply replied "but ET knows where JK lives, why doesn't he go and get him himself?"
I think overall the communication of ET to contest the results was far too impulsive and seemed to lack coherency/planning/vision, while JK and his allies are true communication experts, particularly when it comes to manipulating the international community in the direction they want. Some using the spectrum of the genocide, others using the spectrum of a new war in the East. With his stand (extreme public positioning against Rwanda, communication about arresting the President alive etc...), it seems to me that ET communicated exactly as JK expected him to, in order for the later to further justify his stand to the international community.
I agree with you that a lot has been learnt by this electoral process, by everyone. The population particularly, so yes, there can be hopes for better ones next time. But this will require profound changes in the communication strategy, and, in my opinion, in the leaders representing the opposition, if this is to bring tangible results.
I realize I am debating with several ET followers. I appreciate and understand your deception in what happened, but it's also not a bad thing to acknowledge some of the weaknesses ET had in his strategy and his communication. If one doesn't learn from its failures, he will never succeed!
Peace!
I.
P.S: Sorry about the Kinshasa 2006 wording. What I should have said is that most in Kin were behind ET, but after he disqualified himself by refusing to enter the enrollment process, most turned to MLC as second option.
I -
Many thanks for yor insightful comments.
Re # "I realize I am debating with several ET followers. I appreciate and understand your deception in what happened, but it's also not a bad thing to acknowledge some of the weaknesses ET had in his strategy and his communication. If one doesn't learn from its failures, he will never succeed!
Peace!"
Just wanted to say I second the above. The trouble with many Congolese now is that you can no longer claim to be neutral...
Unlike mine, I find your contribution very balanced and your critics are fair.
To finish, I have the feeling that maybe this time, the intractable ET will have no other choice than allow udps newly 'elected' to go to Palais du Peuple... Will that be a U turn???
Rich
newly 'elected' MPs...
Thanks for this Rich. Yes, let's see how things go from now on. ET always said he never wanted a negotiated power sharing deal. At this stage, even if he wanted to, I don't see why JK should go through such trouble. Mobutu didn't manage to work with him when he was his Prime Minister because of his very confrontational approach, I don't see JK looking at this favorably. The failure of the national strike and other attempts also probably comforted JK in the fact he is not forced to compromise.
The international community probably won't push for such agreements either. ET failed to gain strong legitimacy with them, and the recent power sharing experiences (Zimbabwe, Ivory Coast...) proved to be pushing back problems rather than solving them. A real test will be the actions called by the Catholic churches. If those show the same result as the ET attempts, it will be a clear sign.
The presented results will therefore, for the most, probably remain unchanged other than a few appeals that will be accepted for the form. Then, after some more rhetoric, the Assembly will hopefully finally be sworn in and hopefully decide to work on voting the 2012 State budget, and not on voting the model of their work Nissan as first law, like it was the case in 2006.
On my side this will be my last post here. I just wanted to share my view on these disappointing yet extremely interesting elections - I personally learnt a lot from them- but my function is not to debate politics in the DRC or anywhere else in the world, so I'll get back to it :)
Thanks to everyone for these very interesting and useful exchanges. I appreciated them, even though I don't share everyone's opinion... comes with the notion of politics!
Until then.
I.
I -
Thanks a lot.
A quick one on the 16th of Feb (the planned Catholic church actions). Two scenarios.
1. If it works... but I have been told that PPRD and many other J Kabila's supporters are already planning on joining in because they say it is an event for all Congolese not just the opposition because at that time mobutu and his regime were the common ennemies. In that case, the police and the army will probably be deployed in force and will try to supervise a peaceful demonstration (with the itinerary agreed in advance with organisers...) however, they will not hesitate to clamp down swiftly (with potential collateral blunders as always) on any attempts for troubles or looting.
2. If it is impossible for PPRD and Kabila's followers to be accepted by the organisers of 16th Feb, PPRD et al will try to call for their own day of actions etc... then it is possible, in that case, the authorities will call off any action in rememberence of 16th Feb with all the risk that this will then generate into a situation similar to the one that happened on the last day of the campaign (when tshisekedi got blocked at the airport)... confusion, isolated troubles between supporters of J K and E T plus a dose of police/army blunders here and there... 48 Hrs will be enough for that hangover to start going away and life will resume. After that I guess we will have to wait for another event to be announced by the opposition etc... I doubt tshisekedi alone will stop J Kabila from working as this has shown with his many unfollowed calls for an 'all out uprise'...
Rich
Rich,
Thanks for reminding me Feb 16th is not just a call to opposition from the Catholic church, but also has a historical dimension which had slipped off my radar. Scenario number one seems as worrying as number 2, as if JK's supporters are allowed in we can anticipate provocations from both sides, and possibly violence. ET would be the most to gain from this, so I fail to fully understand the interest JK supporters would have in joining this event. Wouldn't be the first time, by far, I'd fail to fully understand things facing the complexity of the context though. Scenario number 2 (calling off any action), while guaranteeing peace, would also discredit the Government who would be accused of censorship by the opposition.
Scenario number 3: the march happens, with only opposition members demonstrating. It would be interesting to evaluate the level of discontentment with the government, but I'm not sure how it would propose a way out. If and once everyone, from the Congolese to the international community, sees evidence that the majority of people is against JK, how would that propose an exit solution to this situation? In democracies, people don't get elected because the population dislikes their main opponent. They get elected because the majority likes them, and votes for them. There would be potential for stalling here. February 16th will indeed be extremely interesting to monitor closely.
"Unlike mine, I find your contribution very balanced and your critics are fair."
What's unbalanced and unfair about your contributions? I appreciated your inputs on Kinshasa institutions (Supreme Court) on which I lack knowledge (I'm deeply rooted in the East), and find them fair also :)
Cheers!
P.S: I know I said it was my last post before... I just can't help it can I? :)
I.
I -
"P.S: I know I said it was my last post before... I just can't help it can I? :)"
You tell me about that... at least it is a sign that the DRC matters to you.
Scenario number 3 is an interesting one but it looks to me that ET was out of steem and needed a breath of fresh dates or strategists to try and push through his agenda. I am still a bit puzzled how the current 'opposition' tries to own this memorable date.
I put here a link to two documents related to the 16 th Feb.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/21294661/16th%20Feb%201992-2012.zip
Rich
any prognosticating about how things unfold for a confrontation between the catholics and the ruling regime over the coming months? will the catholics be digging in? how does that play out? or do is it all end with a whimper rather than a bang?
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