When the music stops at some point in the coming weeks, we should know who will be in the next government, an event that, perhaps, provide the hapless bookend to the election debacle. But that depends on how it unfolds and whether the government includes the opposition and, if so, whether it is a mere figleaf of a real unity government.
At the moment, President Kabila has named former defense minister Charles Mwando Simba as the "informateur," in charge of figuring out which party has how many seats, whether they consider themselves members of the presidential majority, and what their conditions for joining a government might be. He met with Kabila's allied parties last week and has been meeting with the opposition since yesterday.
Who wants what? This is not just a battle of interests (although some certainly see it thus), but a philosophical one.
The Catholic church, various western embassies and some opposition parties want to have a national unity government. They consider that Kabila's election was marred by serious irregularities and that he is therefore facing a crisis of legitimacy. The prime minister must therefore come from the opposition - ideally, Etienne Tshisekedi, who came in second place - and must be according his constitutional prerogative in the management of the government (not like the relatively powerless previous PMs). In other words, this camp has stepped back from asking for the presidential election to be canceled and is now asking for a kind of power-sharing. But there are also shades of difference within this group. I doubt, for example, that the UNC of Vital Kamerhe would accept a power-sharing deal that gave the opposition a few ministries but not the prime ministry. However, the MLC of Jean-Pierre Bemba may bite at such an offer, as may Kengo wa Dondo's UFC.
Then there is the UDPS, whose leader still insists that he won the presidential elections and that the legislative elections are null and void. The party is deeply split, however, with 38 of their 42 MPs defying their president's order and participating in the national assembly. That faction, which seems to be led by Samy Badibanga, has now been able to persuade Tshisekedi (and some of his more uncompromising advisers like Valentin Mubake) not to remove them from the party. But they are unlikely to accept any part in a government that shares power with President Kabila. They reportedly did not show up to their meeting with Mwando Simba yesterday.
Finally, there are parties who ran in support of Kabila - the relatively amorphous majorité présidentielle. As far as I understand, here we can find hardliners and softliners, as well. Of course, any opening to the opposition will diminish the number of ministries and vice-ministries (and directorships in state companies) one can hand out to Kabila loyalists. It is therefore not surprising that many seem opposed to granting too many seats to the opposition, in particular the prime ministry.
No one seems to know which way things will go, although Congolese political analysts and embassies in Kinshasa seem to agree on a few points: Evariste Boshab is going to have a hard time shrugging off corruption allegations and the poor showing of his PPRD party in the polls; the PPPD is the new kid on the block, the second strongest member of the presidential coalition, but without much of a figurehead (it is said to have been created by Katuma Mwanke, who died in a plane crash); Pierre Lumbi's MSR is in a strong position but its leader is an easterner from Maniema. And, most importantly, it is likely that the president will open to the opposition, but unlikely that this will happen in a substantive way - in other words, perhaps a few ministries but not the prime ministry.
We can only wait and see.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
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19 comments:
Et will not take the primature and K12 won't offer that position anyway. K12 is just playing a pseudo democratic game. He is in disarray since the death of his Rasputin. He surrounds himself with mobutists, he will be lure to the same hole as the leopard. I'm not expecting anything extraordinary from him at this point. As Ngoma binda said, there is no democratic principles about a united government. The opposition should in contrary push for the change into the CENI, assurance for the provincials and zero tolerance about corruption. Those actions will level the plain field and be more efficient on containing K12 and his cronies.
good gracious what a mess! but super helpful, jason.
do you (or anyone) have any idea what the opposition (UNC, UDPS, MLC, Kengo's party) is considering/their posture? your post is chock-heavy on what the kabila cartel, embassies, etc are considering but the wild card here really does seem to be the "opposition" and what their vision (if one can call it that) is for their role in the opposition..
or, to ask this more concretely, what is the goal of the opposition at this point?
i realize they all likely have different goals (udps seems intent on avoiding entering government, unc and others seem to reject this) but, to a degree, what they do/want is influencing what kabila's cartel is considering doing as well, right?
so...
- is udps simply going to wait on donors and continue the boycott?
- will unc and others attempt to play a role akin to republicans here in the us and just say "no" to everything?
- will they attempt to harm kabila by taking up parliamentary committee's and ministries that allow them to hold the regime accountable?
- will they play policy entrepreneurs (think Paul Ryan here) and engage in a legislative strategy as a means of gaining more support among the people?
- will they engage in activity that tries to strengthen institutions generally in the Congo and thus put an end to the parallel gov't problem? (technically, institutions cannot be strengthened if they aren't used so I do hope the entire opposition engages in the Assembly)
- will they do none of this and focus on improving the economy with policies that help out rural folks? (a good friend is a UNC fundraiser here in NYC and is trying to impress upon Karmehe's advisors to focus on things like gov-t backed micro loans to family farmers/building more feeder roads to earn more of the rural vote for next time)
i could go on but i feel entirely in the dark about what the opposition's long game is here- not to mention thoughtful intellectuals (many of whom visit and comment on your blog) in the congo believe the next steps are given the internal detente we appear to be witnessing at the moment.
any thoughts on this J/others?
jose
This the problem, Jose. Opposition in Congo so fractured. Even families in Congo are fractured like my own (half in Mbandaka, half in Seattle, Washington State). Cohesion is a real challenge but I believe current effort to deny legitimacy a good strategy...for now. What I hope? That Kabila sees the light. That he finds an advisor that he can trust and who can help him try to finish the revolution in the political system his father could not given assassination. Surely now he sees how "the system" in Congo is fraught with too much difficulty and challenge. Surely he sees irony of attempting to uphold the system by engaging in fraud and only isolating and paralyzing the regime he defends? It is my hope he sees the light and some one informs him of the history of this system going back all the way to Kongo kings. Kabila can have a good legacy but, to realize it, he need people around him to guide him and Congo nation to better seas. Perhaps, some thoughtful businessmen or women independently wealthy who does not need public employment and is smart. This is my hope atleast.- Marie
ps. I'd play your game too!
Kanambe will have no government. The truth is that Kanambe has lost power. The president is not Hypolite Kanambe alias Joesph Kabila but Etienne Tshisekedi. Tshisekedi is too arrogant but who cares. We need our Congo back and one way is to stop these Kanambists from preventing to form government which rightfully belongs to Tshisekedi.
Tshisekedi is our president and soon Kanambe will have to leave. The problem is that Kanambists want to believe they fool people with laughable offers.
SHAKESPEARE SAID IT WELL LONG TIME AGO
THE POLITICAL PROCESS UNDERWAY FOR APPOINTMENT OF THE PRIME MINISTER IN DRC IS "MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING".
THE PORTRAIT-ROBOT OF PRIME MINISTER SUGGESTED BY AND BY AND EVEN FROM THOSE WHO SHOULD KNOW BETTER SHOWS A COMPLETE NIHILISM OF THE CONGOLESE POLITICAL CLASS TO CONJURE WITH ANYBODY AS LONG AS IT GIVES A TOKEN TO PARTICIPATE IN THE SAME NATIONAL GREAT CORRUPTION FEEDER AFTER AND IN SPITE OF THE ELECTION GREAT HOLD UP OF 2011.
THE PROCESS ALSO SHOWS HOW AN EVIL-ELECTED PRESIDENT AND HIS EVIL-ELECTED MORIBUND MAJORITY ARE CONFRONTING THEIR INABILITY TO RUN THE COUNTRY IN A CHALLENGE AND UNCONSTITUTIONALLY USING THE POWER STOLEN THROUGH LIES, BRUTAL FORCE AND CORRUPTION AT THE BALLOT BOX. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE WHY ARE THEY LOOKING FOR A SAINT OF THE SAINTS FOR THE PRIME MINISTER POSITION. BY DOING SO THEY ARE ACKNOWLEDGING FULLY THEIR LIMITATIONS
IN THE SEARCH OF THE RARE BIRD WITHIN POLITICAL CONTEXTS ALIEN TO THEM SUCH AS INTEGRITY, JUSTICE, FAIR PLAY, TOLERENCE, AND VARIOUS BASIC TENETS OF THE STATE-OF-LAW.
IN MY OPINION IT'S A LITTLE TOO LATE AFTER 11 YEARS OF UNLAWFUL EXERCISE OF POWER TO TURN INTO ... DEMOCRAT!! IT'S IMPOSSIBLE!
THE PROCESS IS SIMPLY THE CONTINUATION OF THE ELECTORAL MASQUERADE SERVED TO THE PEOPLE A WHILE AGO! AND NOTHING SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROCESS
IT IS MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING!! A VIRTUAL WASTE OF TIME AND ENERGY!!
THOSE WHO WILL PARTICIPATE IN IT WILL DO SO AT THEIR OWN RISK ....
-Xebo
@Marie MARCH 20, 2012 10:12 AM
Says :
…” Surely now he sees how "the system" in Congo is fraught with too much difficulty and challenge. Surely he sees irony of attempting to uphold the system by engaging in fraud and only isolating and paralyzing the regime he defends? It is my hope he sees the light and some one informs him of the history of this system going back all the way to Kongo kings. Kabila can have a good legacy but, to realize it, he need people around him to guide him and Congo nation to better seas. Perhaps, some thoughtful businessmen or women independently wealthy who does not need public employment and is smart. This is my hope atleast.- Marie
If I may, I would like to express my humble opinion as it looks like you have a lot of optimism and hope in providential people who could somehow take poor JK’s hand, guide him and convince him to take the right path.
There won’t be a”EUREKA” moment for JK, as a matter of fact; JK will not see the light. He is not a new comer to this system, after 10 years in power, it is his system and he is depending on it to stay in power. It is his system/his people who organized the fraudulent elections last year and the repression that followed (check UN report today on human rights violations by JK goons during the electoral process last year). As Blaise said, he is going to continue to play its “pseudo democratic game”, and maintain his fake democracy (his system).
I do not believe in a scenario in which a providential person or group of people would basically turn JK into something his is not. It is like saying that it is not his fault that things are upside down in the DRC, but the fault of people around him and that if he could just have better people around him things will be better. What about his responsibilities as head of state, chief of the army, “Authorite Morale” as he is called by his cronies… I thought that the “buck” stopped with the Head of State. Why is it always the fault of others and not poor JK who must rely on others who are the ones who are mean, nasty and corrupt. For 10 years, JK chose his people in the official government and the parallel government. He knowingly made those choices “Ce qui se ressemble, s’assemble”, the French say. The results of his choices are catastrophic for the DRC after 10 years. I can’t see how he can have a good legacy moving forward but it is always good to hope for the best.
For my part, I believe that a train (DRC) that does 50 miles/hour and can not go any faster after removing several wagons/cars to lessen the weight it carries has definitely a locomotive (JK) problem. The locomotive must be changed as it has shown its limits (poor quality, wear and tear, exhaustion…)
Bismark
The D.R.C needs a strong Man who can bring stability,build a strong army,fight corruption ,stabilize the economy... then democracy will come next.those who are advocating for a unity government are only doing so because they know that a power sharing government does not always work and it always does bring more in-fighting and instability.a power sharing between KABILA and CHICHI is not possible.and the UDPS is already badly fractured and with its apparent leadership problems the UDPS is now looking more and more like the MLC(dead),knowing this the KABILA camp is not going to respect or oner any agreement that will come out that power sharing deal. by boycotting the parliament Chisekedi has just given a green light to all his rebel deputies to be bought by Kabila.i think an opposition coalition led by Kamerhe and Kengo will emerge in the parliament and they will more likely be joined by the UDPS rebels but i do not see the Chisekedi wing of the UDPS(radicals) joining any coalition with KABILA or the opposition.KABILA is going to form a government with his supporters from the many new fake opposition parties.
Oh Bismark. Such a despondent response to Marie’s hopes! It was a realistic and, clearly, understandable response but I think (though can’t be sure given I’m not Marie) she’s on the right path here.
While Kabila is certainly responsible for the mess that is the Congo, it would be wrong, I believe, to isolate the “system” there as something that is solely of his own making. As the title of Stearns book (and virtually all of its characters) makes clear, the whole of Congo society seems to have no problem “dancing with monsters”. There is a real political crisis in the system in the Congo that, in terms of pure outcomes, leads to the moral decay that gives us rebellions, corruption, state theft, violence, predatory elites and foriegn corporations, and the resulting poverty that pervades so much of Congolese life.
In otherwards, is Kabila’s cartel a result of a unstable system or is the system actually built to corrupt anyone who enters/works it? This is another way of asking: why can’t the Congo develop a political system that is just, equitable, conflict-free, and FINALLY liberates its people as Lumumba called for?
I think it is wrong to simply say “because we have bad leaders/the west wants our minerals/congo is a proxy/vassal state for Kagame”. I am not a scholar of the Congo but that frame seems really simplistic to me. It leaves no agency, whatsoever, in the Congolese’s hands. There appears to be a systemic problem within Congolese society that is preventing it from creating a functioning state that can liberate all its people. This seems clear as day to me and, to a degree, I believe that is what Marie’s central concern.
I also believe that since the death of his grey eminence, the inability to find a majority, the increasing isolation of his regime, the need to find ethnic and regional balance in his inner circle, and the aggression of the opposition, Kabila is probably coming to grips or atleast is thinking about “the system”. While not formally educated, Kabila is NOT dumb and has proven considerable political adroitness as a head of state in such a volatile political system.
This is just a theory. I ofcourse cannot prove Kabila is thinking, well, about anything! But the question, I think, is is there someone, or a group of someone’s, that can earn his trust and encourage him to begin to slay the monster- as it were? He essentially runs a mafia right? Well, did not Michael Corleone himself begin to question it?!!! Slaying the monster within is fraught with real peril for Kabila. But right now, maintaining the status quo is ALSO fraught with peril as Stearns (and others) is reporting.
I think this is worthy of consideration primarily because those opposed to his regime really do not have any more options since the status quo is likely to prevail. Actually, the only other option is violence and do we really want to go down that path?
The political system in the Congo can be reformed. I have no idea what it would look like but surely someone in the Congo does. If Kabila could be convinced by someone whom he can trust that a way “out” is possible and that, as his final act as President, he could bring about the change we could actually see some in the Congo.
Right now, all we have left is the status quo and given where things are now it doesn’t take an idiot to see that this is unsustainable and likely may push the nation back into conflict given NOONE wants to blink in the post-election impasse.
Mel
@ Bismark
Your use of the locomotive metaphor seems apt...but consider it in terms of the agent/structure debate - the agent (Joseph Kabila) is the engineer; the locomotive is the Congolese political structure. The problem seems to be a pervasive political culture that might be described as "Mobutisme without Mobutu." Unfortunately, this political culture seems to reproduce itself.
I believe Jason has described the parallel governmental structure as a wheel in which the hub is the presidency and the spokes of power radiate outward from there. J Kabila did not create this structure or the attendant political culture; they were there when he was thrust into power by the assassination of his father.
One can agree that Kabila has not succeeded in breaking the stranglehold of the existing political culture; however, will changing engineers fix the locomotive? The prevailing political culture may be much more deeply embedded than that.
I suspect many Congolese voted for Etienne Tshisekedi with the hope that he could be an agent of change. The profound transformation needed would require a level of collective agency far greater than any single individual. The fragmented state of the opposition parties seems problematic: quite apart from the issue of how many votes they could muster in the National Assembly, even if they succeed in coalescing into a united front (1) do they have a competing vision that differs from Kabila's "revolution de la modernite" and (2) would they be more successful in implementing it?
Perhaps a government of national unity could begin to address the interrelated problems of political structure/culture and begin to move the country forward.
@ All
It is certainly true that a coalition/unity government- with UDPS and others directly in it-could begin to address the "dancing with monsters"/political structure/culture problems others are alluding to in the thread.
But how? The beneficiaries of the system in the Congo do not want to change it primarily because its rewards are so high and, should it be changed, they could all be prosecuted for engaging in so rank predation. Its opponents (the "opposition") have labored so hard to extinguish it but will this zeal for reform stick when they are brought into power?
To a degree, we all seem to be calling for what in essence is a revolution of the Congolese political system. But if history is any guide, the revolutionaries often grow to be as autocratic as those they replace.
This is why Marie's claim of some trusted outsider in the system is rather prescient.
It also unearths the following questions:
a) What constitutional or institutional (or both) changes would a unity government need to employ to devolve and/or better balance power? Relatedly, how would it lead to the development of more democratic, younger, and less predatory leaders in Congolese society?
b) How could these changes simultaneously empower the opposition and civil society but also not lead to a witchhunt that targets the regime?
c) In what ways could a unity government create a system that re-calculates- but does not offend- the Congo's relations with key neighbors, often rapacious multinationals, and those multinational governments that ultimately empowers the Congolese?
I do not pretend to have the answers to these questions. But if people are serious about confronting the "system" and doing so through some kind of unity/coalition government, it would behoove reformers to clearly lay out a vision (or perhaps ideology is a better word) of what the aims of such a government would be and to ensure it does not antagonize regime supporters and corrupt regime opponents.
- D
Mel -
Great analyse as always. I second most of what you said since you are right on more than one level.
Thanks to anon March 21, 2012 12:43 PM and -D
All I can say is that the last elections have polarised the debate in DRC to the point of making some observers to think in a kind of binary opposition way where J Kabila and E tshisekedi are the only available explanatory variables of the mess that has been embedding in the DRC's cultural complex since the colonisation era.
I read some saying DRC needs a political revolution, some others have said it needs a modernity revolution but I think the DRC needs a cultural revolution that will enable to generate integrated solutions to its most prominent and legitimate urgencies.
I have no doubt J Kabila is doing his last mandate and I hope he is brave enough to take unpopular decisions if he wants to leave a half decent legacy.
I say this because there are encouraging signs out there. Yes things are not perfect or what they should ideally be but that country has come a very long way.
The only thing people often forget to say is that you cannot expect a country to be performing better than the level of its mentality. If only those in power are defective, why has the opposition never been able to show enough maturity in their own structuration and within their own organisation? If we leave in a shared house and the common area is in a mess, if I claim to be tidier than the rest of my house mate, surely my bedroom which is not a common area should be clean and reflect the fact that I am better than my housemate! Can anyone point me to a heathy example of Congolese opposition doing well in their own bedroom?
For this reason, I agree with what Mel and the two posts preceding this one. J Kabila needs a kind of fuse to not only guide him but also take some of the blame if he is to operate some drastic reforms that will help that country to consolidate the institutional matrix and reinforce a regular occurrence of genuine democratic events at all levels, including within political parties.
Here is my stupid attempt on the profile of the coming cabinet.
PM: Mbatshi Mbatshia (PPRD and Bas-Congo)
There will be a few vice-PM to accommodate man of the head of political parties that managed to get more than 16 MPs. The opposition (MLC and moderate UDPS) may get 2 or 3 places in the government. The rest may get commissions at the parliament etc...Half way through the legislature, we may have Boshab coming in as PM and a reform will be made just to rotate people and give a chance to those who missed out this time round. From this reform J Kabila will be able to put people who will prepare his exit from the political scene and I would not be surprised to see someone like Moise Katumbi being promoted very high...
Nothing scientific about this, just thinking out loud!
Rich
I agree with Rich and his facilitation of all these points (Anon, D, Mel). We must remember Kabila is in last term. He is, yes, not dumb and knows the culture in Congo preceded him and has struggled to end it while benefitting from it. Yes, Mel, he may had a “Michael Corleone” moment and may be having them now. It is wrong to simply say “Kabila is evil, Etienne is good”. The way OUT for Congolese is not with one man but systemic reform at state, political party, provincial, and civil society levels. Both opposition and regime have flaws borne from this bad political culture/structure. But the way out needs to impress upon Kabila he must leave something better, something different, for his people and future generations and that is ok to TAKE RISKS. This means a change in culture, which will change the politics, which will change system. But the agent of change must be someone he can trust and is not implicated in system. I don’t know who this may be. Perhaps a pastor or minister. Perhaps another head of state (Tanzania’s Kikewete?). If I were Kabila, I would try to work with moderates in UNC, MLC, and UDPS- if only to just listen and get other views on moving forward. But my idea is that we must give Kabila benefit of doubt for all his flaws. He is now in a corner and knows this! We must capitalize on his awareness this is last term and how he want to go out as a Congo leader and how he want to leave a better Congo political system so our people can finally know freedom and justice. Thank you patriots of Congo and we must have hope!- Marie
(sorry in advance for typos, something is wrong with my spell check)
folks, this thread is really starting to concern me. while I can agree that there is most definately a system/structure/culture that would corrupt any man in the congo, the simple facts at this point are the following:
...allow me to be really blunt
1. jk just orchestrated a systematic, wholesale, and fraudelant elections of near epic proportions and, if this wasn’t enough, did so by engaging in targeted violence against his opponents (namely, the UDPS).
2. jk is, for all intents and purposes, the illegimately elected head of the Congo.
3. we are now in month three without a government and this is largely because his so-called “majority” senses the emperor has no clothes and, as such, are engaged in not “jokeying” for position but, in ways large and small, are seeking undermine and chip away at his authority. stearns thinks it will be fractuous. i think it will be a catatastrophe given how very weak the congo state is already and the willingness of the congolese to challenge authority given their history.
4. the cold peace currently prevailing in the Congo will not last given this crisis of legitimacy and a return to violence is quite likely no matter what bone jk throws to the opposition or his cartel.
having watched the young prince at work, I really do not see him, or anyone else, “seeing the light” or caring about his legacy. i might be very wrong and i hope to god in heaven that i am but jk only understands one thing and that is force of arms.
it is unfortunate that the west has, once again, chosen stability over promoting freedom and democracy. this is a particularly false comfort and will, in the months and years to come, bite them in the ass.
i say let’s FIRST resolve the crisis we have at the moment and worry about fixing the “culture/system” later. (though I do recognize the current crisis is the logical result of congo’s warped political system)
jose
@ all, great insight into Jk. All those analysis are pertinent. My only concern is that we are taking for granted that JK is in his last mandate. It's a little early to speculate about that but I will be surprise if he doesn't attempt to get a third mandate. Beside, nobody is talking about the time bomb that is awaiting us if Jk come to term with his mandate. Read the UN reports, the militias were ready to take arms again.
@ Mel
I would like to thank you for addressing my post. I respect Marie’s opinion and others who agree with it and I thank her for sharing it. In my humble opinion, I just fail to see how the scenario she is proposing will pan out given JK’s track record. In a perfect world it might be possible for some one or a group to convince a JK to go the route that is being suggested by Marie. To me, it is asking JK to go against what has kept him in power for 11 years and made him a very rich man. It is asking him to go against what he trusts and believes in, the use of corruption and force to achieve his political agenda within the DRC.
Marie says,” JK knows that the culture in Congo precedes him and that he has struggled to end it while benefiting from it”. I fail to see examples of JK struggles to end the ”Culture” (Finis la recreation, Tolerance zero… all empty slogans).He is the biggest beneficiary of this culture in my opinion, it will be very hard for him to change it since it is in may ways good to him.
This “Culture” has been very good for him and his supporting cast/cronies. I doubt very much that JK will have a EUREKA moment, based on the hard reality of his tenure (11 years) as head of state and chief of the armed forces. In 11 years, JK has had the time to look at what works and what does not and adjust accordingly. Especially, in a “pseudo democratic system” with an assembly that behaves like a resonance chamber on matters essential to his political survival.
The same “Culture” (corruption and especially the force component) he uses to consolidate his power, could have been used to put the system straight if I can say. Jerry Rawlins in Ghana in the early 80’s would be an example of some one who was able to put a system straight by using force. Next door’s Kagame can be used as an example also to a certain extent. Oh Mel, you qualified my post as been despondent in contrast to Marie’s hope. I respect your opinion but the vast majority of DRC citizens facing the harsh reality of JK’s system; can only be despondent (=depressed, dejected, dispirited, gloomy, discouraged, sad, down …) given the many serious abuses of human rights. These DRC citizens, can only be depressed because of the misery of more than 90% of the population, 4/5 of which does not have access to clean water. These DRC citizens, can only be dejected because of fraudulent elections and a system that never delivers for them. These DRC citizens, can only be dispirited because they know that they can not have recourse to an independent justice system, they can only be gloomy since the Kivus are under occupation by our neighbors to the East …and much more. For someone living in the DRC, It is hard not to be despondent and to hope that somehow JK will see the light as it is said. Again, I can only make my judgments based on JK’s track record as head of state not on something that might happen or not (him being receptive to pressures from a hypothetical outsider who would make him see the light). I do not know why some of us are assuming that it is his last term in office, after everything that has happened with the fraudulent elections, what will prevent him from using his system to change the law and run gain like most of Africa’s long time presidents. In my eyes, he is safer and in control presiding over his system than on the outside as a rich former president. Marie says,”… my idea is that we must give Kabila the benefit of doubt for all his flaws…” based on JK’s track record of 11 years, I do not see the reason for this added trust but on the other hand, Marie is right when she says that there must be a systemic reform at state, political party, provincial and civil society levels. Who is going to initiate these reforms? JK? I doubt it very mush, like “Thomas”, I need to see this to believe it.
Bismark
@ Anonymous March 21, 2012 12:43 PM
I would like to thank you for addressing my post, I do agree with your statement to a certain degree when you say that,”JK did not create this system/structure or the attendant political culture” but when the Kadogos of the AFDL and their allies marched across the DRC in 1997 to remove the “Marechal”, they were doing so to change Mobutu’s system/structure and its “attendant political culture”. JK was part of that outfit of which he is a product and for 11 years he has presided over the DRC with the opportunity to put the country on a right path which he failed to do in my humble opinion. I agree that the political culture you describe as "Mobutisme without Mobutu” seems to reproduce itself. It actually never stopped and has been amplified and used by the ones in power today to stay in power by all means necessary. In my humble opinion, I believe that nothing was done to change this political culture and the country is paying dearly for it.
It is going to be very hard for me to give an opinion on what the opposition
would do or could do for the simple reason that for the past 40 years, the opposition in the DRC has no track record as a majority in the parliament or as being in power, like in Ghana or Benin where one time opposition parties have held and lost power. The opposition parties might have a competing vision to JK’s “Revolution dans la Modernite”((like the “5 Chantiers”, another poor and empty slogan a la Mobutu( Objectif 80”)) but we will never be able to judge their competence as statesmen as long as they are not in power, in charge and in control of the states apparatus. A government of national unity is a compromise in my eyes and does not reflect the will of the people as expressed in the voting booth. It can help to calm down people and avoid contestations but rarely does it solve long term problems like fixing the interrelated problems of political structure/culture and begin to move the country forward. I am not a pessimist but it is hard to be an optimist when one looks at the mess in the DRC.
Bismark
Great applause and my consent to Bismark and jose!
Well said, folks. In my opinion there is no reason to believe, that the monster will turn into a hero of freedom and welfare. If people gaze to that government-building-action they miss to see the real bad situation in the whole country. And they forget, that Kabila is not President for his competence to lead the country, but only for Corruption, abuse of power and ingratiation to the US and other Wests. And he will always continue his leadership if nobody stops him.
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