What does 2010 have in store for the Congo?
A few things to think about. In the first installment, let's look at elections:
Whom to believe? Abbe Malu Malu, the head of the electoral commission, who said in November that local elections will be held as scheduled in 2010? Or President Kabila, who told parliament on December 7 that local elections would not be held until 2011. These elections were supposed to take place in 2008, but were delayed due to legislative foot-dragging (several laws had to be passed for elections to take place) and the government's inaction. Closely linked to these delays is the constitutional requirement to create 26 provinces out of the current 11 and the granting of 40% of national revenues to the provinces. This decentralization was supposed to take place within three years of Kabila's inauguration (i.e. by December 2009).
In other words, the democratic institutions that are supposed to be the bedrock of post-conflict stability are looking increasingly shaky. Even the elected institutions that exist have performed poorly. While the Union pour la Nation opposition (led by the MLC) won 42 per cent of the presidential elections and had the de facto majority in three provincial assemblies, the ruling coalition has been able to co-opt and coerce its way to power in all 11 provinces, most recently in the MLC own bastion of Equateur. The national assembly, which is controlled by the ruling coalition, has done a relatively poor job of overseeing government action - they have called in some ministers for questioning, and they carried out several audits (most notably, the senate audit of mining contracts), but have had little impact at the end of the day. Ever since Evariste Boshab took over as president of the national assembly in 2009, the national assembly had pretty much become a sounding board or echo chamber for government policy.
We can't just blame the government. The opposition is weak and divided - the main MLC opposition is managed by Jean-Pierre Bemba from his exile at the ICC prison in The Hague, and is riven by internal feuds. The veteran UDPS opposition is threatened by the health of Etienne Tshisekedi, who has spent much of the past year in medical treatment in Belgium and South Africa. In his absence, his party had also been divided by internal squabbles. There are no other obvious contenders for the moment, although Kabila was seriously concerned by Vital Kamerhe (former head of national assembly, forcefully removed in January 2009) and remains worried by the popularity of Moise Katumbi, governor of Katanga.
Even though elections are still almost two years away, the prospect of facing new elections has become an obsession of the presidential clique. It may be in this vein that we should see the departure of Katumba Mwanke, the powerful presidential advisor, from leading the AMP coalition. In any case, in speaking with other presidential advisors, Kabila's strategy does not seem to be based on winning a popularity contest as on exploiting the weakness of his opponents and controlling the electoral process. In other words, he plans on winning the election by making sure no legitimate opponent emerges. In this sense, he is inspired by his neighbors to the north and south - Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazzaville and Edourado dos Santos in Angola, both resource-rich countries that hold elections but where the parties in power use corruption and repression to anchor their control over the country.
Kabila is worried, however, that he will not be able to live up to some of the promises he made when he was sworn in three years ago. The backbone of his plan has been the "Cinq Chantiers" (the five construction sites) - water & electricity, health & education, housing, employment and infrastructure. The government has more or less sub-contracted these projects out to the Chinese government, which has promised to provide $6 billion in infrastructure projects and loans in return for control of 10 million metric tons of copper and 600,000 tons of cobalt.Four major infrastructure projects are already nearing completion, but many of criticized the deal as being too generous towards the Chinese partners.
The other main problem is security in the East. The violence was worse this year than since the height of the war in 1999/2000, and many Kivutians are fed up with the president, even though they overwhelmingly voted for him in 2006. During a recent trip to Bukavu, formerly his electoral base, people threw stones at Kabila's motorcade. Although the government says that they are ending the Kimia II operations and that they have finished off 75% of all FDLR combatants, I doubt that the Rwandan rebels are finished. In addition, the ex-CDNP rebellion maintains command and control over many of its soldiers and continues to operate a parallel administration in much of Masisi territory.
In light of his faltering popularity, Kabila will probably try to influence the electoral process. It's too early to say whether he will just try to control the media and security forces, as he did during the last elections, or whether he will try to actually rig the ballot. He has already told donors that he wants them to finance the local elections, but not the national ones, perhaps an indication that he wants them to keep out of the process, which was closely supervised by donors last time.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009
Mob justice in Bukavu
This week there was another case of mob justice in Bukavu. On December 20th, a gang of thieves robbed and killed the student Justin BAHATI as he was walking home in the Kadutu neighborhood. The culprits are were one of the more notorious gangs in town, called "The Finders." Apparently, they insisted that he give them his bag with his laptop computer - he refused, as the bag contained his senior thesis that he was finishing to graduate from the ISP (Superior Pedagogic Institute, the teacher's college). In the ensuing tug-o-war, he thieves stabbed him and left him to die. He was rushed to the hospital, but succumbed to his wounds the following morning.
Students in Bukavu tend to stick together - under the RCD occupation, they used to burn tires in the streets and lead demonstrations, especially to protect one of their own. (Unfortunately, when it comes to sustained political pressure, the various student unions always seem to be co-opted by the authorities). This time, they held true to their reputation. A group of students rushed down to the nearby police station, where the alleged killers were being held. According to the human rights group ICJP, the students threatened to burn down the market if the police didn't hand over the bandits. They finally complied, handing over 14 members of the Finders, who were taken to the ISP campus. There, on the street in front of the school, one of the thugs was doused with gasoline and set alight when he tried to flee. The others were taken to the basketball court that is surrounded by student dorms and severely beaten with stones, sticks and knives. (See here for Radio Okapi's version of the events.)
This is not the first time such mob justice has taken place in Bukavu. This year alone, there have been at least four other such incidents in town. On August 26, a mob caught the leader of a gang of thugs in Kadutu and beat him to death. Several days later, a thief was captured by the population in the Ibanda neighborhood and stoned to death. Around the same time, a group of youths almost killed a Congolese army colonel who was lurking about a round-about in Kadutu with an AK-47 in civilian clothes. On November 4, two alleged robbers were captured by a local mob in Kadutu and burned to death.
It is not surprising that people would take justice into their own hands. No one has any faith in the justice system - most of the people in jail have not been sentenced or even charged due to lack of funds and the torpor of the judicial system; those who have been sentenced often escape. A few examples:
Little wonder, therefore, that if you really want to punish someone, you execute the sentence yourself. It will take years to change this attitude; above all, it will require serious reforms of the judicial system. For this, the government will have to spend more than the 1% of its budget (around $6 million per year) that it current allocates to the ministry of justice.
Students in Bukavu tend to stick together - under the RCD occupation, they used to burn tires in the streets and lead demonstrations, especially to protect one of their own. (Unfortunately, when it comes to sustained political pressure, the various student unions always seem to be co-opted by the authorities). This time, they held true to their reputation. A group of students rushed down to the nearby police station, where the alleged killers were being held. According to the human rights group ICJP, the students threatened to burn down the market if the police didn't hand over the bandits. They finally complied, handing over 14 members of the Finders, who were taken to the ISP campus. There, on the street in front of the school, one of the thugs was doused with gasoline and set alight when he tried to flee. The others were taken to the basketball court that is surrounded by student dorms and severely beaten with stones, sticks and knives. (See here for Radio Okapi's version of the events.)
This is not the first time such mob justice has taken place in Bukavu. This year alone, there have been at least four other such incidents in town. On August 26, a mob caught the leader of a gang of thugs in Kadutu and beat him to death. Several days later, a thief was captured by the population in the Ibanda neighborhood and stoned to death. Around the same time, a group of youths almost killed a Congolese army colonel who was lurking about a round-about in Kadutu with an AK-47 in civilian clothes. On November 4, two alleged robbers were captured by a local mob in Kadutu and burned to death.
It is not surprising that people would take justice into their own hands. No one has any faith in the justice system - most of the people in jail have not been sentenced or even charged due to lack of funds and the torpor of the judicial system; those who have been sentenced often escape. A few examples:
- In July last year, one of the alleged killers of journalist Serge Maheshe escaped from Bukavu prison during a Catholic mass held there.
- On November 24 of this year, the alleged assassin of Didace Namujimbo, another Radio Okapi journalist, escaped from the jail cell of the 10th military region in Bukavu just five days after his arrest.
- Also in November 2009, 90 prisoners escaped from the Kindu prison in Maniema province.
- Two army officers, a major and a colonel, escaped from the Bukavu prison on 9 January 2009. They had been arrested for treason and leading a rebel movement.
- On August 1, 2007, 115 of the 155 prisoners of the Uvira prison escaped. On April 9, 2009, 222 of the 225 inmates of the same prison were freed by armed gunmen.
- 24 prisoners escaped from the Mbandaka prison on July 15, 2007 after they noticed that the three prison guards had left their posts. Between 10 and 15 escapes are registered each month in the Mbandaka prison.
- Several high-ranking CNDP officers escaped from Bukavu prison in July 2006, including Colonel Jean-Pierre Biyoyo, who had been sentenced for child recruitment.
Little wonder, therefore, that if you really want to punish someone, you execute the sentence yourself. It will take years to change this attitude; above all, it will require serious reforms of the judicial system. For this, the government will have to spend more than the 1% of its budget (around $6 million per year) that it current allocates to the ministry of justice.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
The CNDP negotiate with a new man at their helm
The CNDP are currently negotiating their participation in the national government, according to Radio Okapi, which could mark a step towards cementing the political deal the CNDP had signed in March 2009 - they recently wrote a letter to the Kinshasa government complaining that none of the promises contained in that deal had been implemented. It's actually a fairly comprehensive list of demands, including positions for their cadres in the administration, the integration of the CNDP police force, the creation of local reconciliation committees and the holding of a tripartite meeting between Rwanda-DRC-UNHCR for the return of refugees (most of whom are Tutsi) from Rwanda.
It is, however, unlikely that even if the CNDP get what they want, their soldiers will be completely integrated into the national army. The incentives for them to maintain a parallel militia is too great, and even if they get positions and guarantees, these are not worth much given how unreliable the Congolese government is.
In the meantime, here is some more information about the CNDP's new president, Philippe Gafishi:
He was born in 1966 in Mema, Masisi and is a member of the Gogwe clan of the Tutsi. He got his bachelor's degree in statistics in Lubumbashi and then went on to study in Yaounde, Cameroon. He has lectured in statistics at universities in Kigali and Goma, and has served as a statistician for several ministries in Rwanda. He has also served as a consultant for several UN agencies and international aid groups. He has not been involved in politics until now and was not a member of either the AFDL or RCD rebellions. He does have close family ties to politicians, however: His brother is Mpumuro, the former bourgomestre of Mutara in Rwanda and the former editor of the RPF radio station. Gafishi's brother-in-law is Colonel Wilson Nsengiyumva, a CNDP officer close to Bosco Ntaganda
It is, however, unlikely that even if the CNDP get what they want, their soldiers will be completely integrated into the national army. The incentives for them to maintain a parallel militia is too great, and even if they get positions and guarantees, these are not worth much given how unreliable the Congolese government is.
In the meantime, here is some more information about the CNDP's new president, Philippe Gafishi:
He was born in 1966 in Mema, Masisi and is a member of the Gogwe clan of the Tutsi. He got his bachelor's degree in statistics in Lubumbashi and then went on to study in Yaounde, Cameroon. He has lectured in statistics at universities in Kigali and Goma, and has served as a statistician for several ministries in Rwanda. He has also served as a consultant for several UN agencies and international aid groups. He has not been involved in politics until now and was not a member of either the AFDL or RCD rebellions. He does have close family ties to politicians, however: His brother is Mpumuro, the former bourgomestre of Mutara in Rwanda and the former editor of the RPF radio station. Gafishi's brother-in-law is Colonel Wilson Nsengiyumva, a CNDP officer close to Bosco Ntaganda
Monday, December 21, 2009
Finally, a solution for "conflict minerals"
In my continuing series on "What's for Christmas" blog, today I feature...drones!
Yes, folks, that's right. The Kinshasa government has cut the Gordian knot in the Kivus, slicing through the complexities of natural resources & conflict and has decided: drones are the way to go.
A bit of explanation is necessary. The Congolese Vice-Minister of Mines Victor Kasongo, who is said to wield considerably more influence than his boss in the ministry, has been visiting the US for the past few weeks. His trip was prompted by increased pressure on the Congolese government to put some order in the mining sector in the Kivus region, where various armed groups make millions in pro
fits from the minerals trade. In particular, the government is worried that two bills in the US Congress will lead big companies to boycott Congolese minerals. Kasongo flew to Washington to reassure congressmen that the government is taking this very serious. Among the plans the government has is to use drones to take high-quality pictures of mining sites in the eastern Congo. Kasongo said that the government has looked at some US drones, but thinks they're not good enough, so they are currently considering some Israeli ones. (Israeli has previously provided weapons and training to President Kabila, as detailed here in a 2003 UN report; Congolese officials have close links to the Israeli establishment through businessmen like Dan Gertler, as suggested by this article.)
What would these drones do? This is not exactly clear. How could images, even very detailed ones, help establish the connection between armed groups and the international mining supply chain? They could help establish which mining sites are occupied by soldiers, but they would have a hard time showing whether these soldiers belong to the Congolese army or rebel groups. As the UN reports have shown, the complex and clandestine links between politicians, business and armed groups are difficult to trace and involve human intelligence gathering, not drone overflights. However, when the issue of setting up an independent monitoring team, Kasongo was reportedly dismissive in one meeting in DC, suggesting that drones could do this job. One must wonder whether the Congolese government might not spend its paltry budget on better things. Apparently civilian U.A.Vs (unmanned aerial vehicles) cost between $80,000 and $3 million.
Merry Christmas, Congo.
Yes, folks, that's right. The Kinshasa government has cut the Gordian knot in the Kivus, slicing through the complexities of natural resources & conflict and has decided: drones are the way to go.
A bit of explanation is necessary. The Congolese Vice-Minister of Mines Victor Kasongo, who is said to wield considerably more influence than his boss in the ministry, has been visiting the US for the past few weeks. His trip was prompted by increased pressure on the Congolese government to put some order in the mining sector in the Kivus region, where various armed groups make millions in pro
fits from the minerals trade. In particular, the government is worried that two bills in the US Congress will lead big companies to boycott Congolese minerals. Kasongo flew to Washington to reassure congressmen that the government is taking this very serious. Among the plans the government has is to use drones to take high-quality pictures of mining sites in the eastern Congo. Kasongo said that the government has looked at some US drones, but thinks they're not good enough, so they are currently considering some Israeli ones. (Israeli has previously provided weapons and training to President Kabila, as detailed here in a 2003 UN report; Congolese officials have close links to the Israeli establishment through businessmen like Dan Gertler, as suggested by this article.)What would these drones do? This is not exactly clear. How could images, even very detailed ones, help establish the connection between armed groups and the international mining supply chain? They could help establish which mining sites are occupied by soldiers, but they would have a hard time showing whether these soldiers belong to the Congolese army or rebel groups. As the UN reports have shown, the complex and clandestine links between politicians, business and armed groups are difficult to trace and involve human intelligence gathering, not drone overflights. However, when the issue of setting up an independent monitoring team, Kasongo was reportedly dismissive in one meeting in DC, suggesting that drones could do this job. One must wonder whether the Congolese government might not spend its paltry budget on better things. Apparently civilian U.A.Vs (unmanned aerial vehicles) cost between $80,000 and $3 million.
Merry Christmas, Congo.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Kabila's visit to the East
Kabila has been on a PR-blitz recently, visiting much of the country, including restive Equateur & the Kasais - both areas favorable to the opposition - and, this week South and North Kivu. In Bukavu this week, he chaired a meeting of the council of ministers and gave a speech to the population about insecurity and the FDLR operations. South Kivu has changed dramatically since he was elected with 98% of the vote there in 2006. Infrastructure projects have only made slow progress and, above all, insecurity has spiraled out of control. This month, the headlines were full of the attacks against the Catholic church. A nun and a priest were murdered by FDLR and other unknown bandits in Kabare and Murhesa, two parishes north north of Bukavu. Here is a list of incidents the Catholic church brought to the president's attention:
The Catholic church in Bukavu, led by Msg Maroy, has traditionally been supportive of Kabila. But they are becoming more and more disaffected with the situation in the Kivus. Still, the letter they wrote to him was cordial and couched their demands within a sentiment of support for his presidency. They concluded:
Katintima was on hand during Kabila's visit, and later led a meeting of the PPRD (the main presidential party) in Bukavu. According to people who attended the meeting, as well as UN sources, he handed out $2,200 for "dissemination of the presidential address" and another $2,000 "for Christmas festivities" to PPRD leaders. A sad state of affairs.
- CIHERANO (Walungu): Attack and looting of church, kidnapping of priest and seminary student at 20 o'clock, October 3, 2009. The next day they were freed after paying a ransom of $5,000.
- · NYANGEZI (Kabare) : On October 5, 2009, the school run by the Marist Brothers was attacked and looted.
- · KABARE : Attacks of the Mukongola hosptial, two doctors were seriously injured.
- · KARHALE (Bukavu): The Father Jérôme NDAYE was attacked by men in police uniforms at 19 o'clock.
- · KABARE : Attack of the parish and murder of the Abbot Daniel CIZIMYA on December 6, 2009.
- · MURHESA (Kabare): Murder of Sister Dénise KAHAMBU at the monastery, December 7, 2009.
The Catholic church in Bukavu, led by Msg Maroy, has traditionally been supportive of Kabila. But they are becoming more and more disaffected with the situation in the Kivus. Still, the letter they wrote to him was cordial and couched their demands within a sentiment of support for his presidency. They concluded:
CONCLUSION : le peuple du SUD KIVU qui vous a massivement élu vous fait encore confiance et compte sur vous pour donner un message de plus fort pour que plus jamais le sang des innocents ne coulent dans notre province .
At the same time, former Governor Norbert Katintima appears to be trying hard to position himself as Kabila's man in South Kivu so as to replace Vital Kamhere, who fell into disgrace earlier this year. Katintima, who is also from the Mushi ethnic community, has entered Kabila's inner circle this year (he is the minister of agriculture) and has taken part in several important missions for the president. Many Kivutians are very cynical about this: Katintima was governor of South Kivu for the RCD ( I think between 1999-2002) and was resented by much of the population for his corruption, disdainful attitude towards the local population and civil society, rampant human rights abuses and the creation of his own militia.Katintima was on hand during Kabila's visit, and later led a meeting of the PPRD (the main presidential party) in Bukavu. According to people who attended the meeting, as well as UN sources, he handed out $2,200 for "dissemination of the presidential address" and another $2,000 "for Christmas festivities" to PPRD leaders. A sad state of affairs.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
A CNDP Christmas
Stop the press, the CNDP (Laurent Nkunda's former armed group) has a new president! Ok, so it's not really that exciting. First of all, no one has heard of the guy. His name his Philippe Gafishi, a Tutsi from the Mugogwe clan (same as Bosco Ntaganda), born in Nyamitaba and around 43 years old. He did not take part in the AFDL (1996-7) or RCD (1998-2003) rebellions and apparently earned a degree in Lubumbashi before moving to Rwanda, where he has worked for some years.
What does this mean? Not a whole lot. As a reminder, after Laurent Nkunda was removed/arrested in January this year, a new crew was imposed: Desire Kamanzi and Jean Munyampenda. These guys were also largely ciphers (Munyampenda has been involved in the AFDL) and didn't really seem to have much weight within the CNDP. In any case, the CNDP troops are still largely divided between the minority who support Bosco Ntaganda and the majority who are behind Nkunda (even if he is under house arrest in Kigali). The CNDP political movement is now largely controlled by the pro-Bosco faction, which it is not surprising that Gafishi is rumored to be a relative of the ICC-indictee.
Talks in Kinshasa between the armed groups and the government began this past week, and it is not clear whether Gafishi will attend the talks, which are supposed to talk about the implementation of the March 23 agreement. Most of the armed groups are still unhappy that their soldiers have been integrated but the political leadership is still largely unemployed and broke.
What else is the CNDP getting for Christmas? It looks like perhaps a Supreme Court trial? Nkunda is supposed to finally get a hearing in front of the Rwandan Supreme Court, as his lawyer announced a few days ago. He has consistently complained that he has been illegally detained without an arrest warrant for almost a year. I don't think formal charges have been brought against him. The court hearing is supposed to happen on Janaury 13, 2010.
Also, more reports are coming out of the Ntoto-Kibua (southern Masisi) area of a mutinous ex-CNDP battalion. Not clear what exactly happened, but it appears that Colonel Emmanuel Nsengiyumva (ex-CNDP) deserted from his position around Nyabiondo around a month ago along with several hundred ex-CNDP soldiers. Other deserters have joined them since. Nsengiyumva is allegedly a relative of "Papa-6" (Nkunda's radio call sign) and used to be in his bodyguard. In other words, this is another sign of splintering within the CNDP.
The other CNDP wing accuses Nsengiyumva of being in cahoots with the FDLR.
Ah, Christmas in Masisi! Keep your eyes peeled, it always around this time of year (when the diplomats are busy tending to the yule log) that trouble breaks out around Goma - certainly was the case for the past three years.
What does this mean? Not a whole lot. As a reminder, after Laurent Nkunda was removed/arrested in January this year, a new crew was imposed: Desire Kamanzi and Jean Munyampenda. These guys were also largely ciphers (Munyampenda has been involved in the AFDL) and didn't really seem to have much weight within the CNDP. In any case, the CNDP troops are still largely divided between the minority who support Bosco Ntaganda and the majority who are behind Nkunda (even if he is under house arrest in Kigali). The CNDP political movement is now largely controlled by the pro-Bosco faction, which it is not surprising that Gafishi is rumored to be a relative of the ICC-indictee.
Talks in Kinshasa between the armed groups and the government began this past week, and it is not clear whether Gafishi will attend the talks, which are supposed to talk about the implementation of the March 23 agreement. Most of the armed groups are still unhappy that their soldiers have been integrated but the political leadership is still largely unemployed and broke.
What else is the CNDP getting for Christmas? It looks like perhaps a Supreme Court trial? Nkunda is supposed to finally get a hearing in front of the Rwandan Supreme Court, as his lawyer announced a few days ago. He has consistently complained that he has been illegally detained without an arrest warrant for almost a year. I don't think formal charges have been brought against him. The court hearing is supposed to happen on Janaury 13, 2010.
Also, more reports are coming out of the Ntoto-Kibua (southern Masisi) area of a mutinous ex-CNDP battalion. Not clear what exactly happened, but it appears that Colonel Emmanuel Nsengiyumva (ex-CNDP) deserted from his position around Nyabiondo around a month ago along with several hundred ex-CNDP soldiers. Other deserters have joined them since. Nsengiyumva is allegedly a relative of "Papa-6" (Nkunda's radio call sign) and used to be in his bodyguard. In other words, this is another sign of splintering within the CNDP.
The other CNDP wing accuses Nsengiyumva of being in cahoots with the FDLR.
Ah, Christmas in Masisi! Keep your eyes peeled, it always around this time of year (when the diplomats are busy tending to the yule log) that trouble breaks out around Goma - certainly was the case for the past three years.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Gossip from the UN
Some gossip from within the UN system:
1. Discussions have begun around MONUC's mandate renewal, led by the French (they are always given the lead on Congo matters in the Security Council). There will be a 5-6 month mandate renewal, as requested by Kabila, and preparations for a drawdown based on concrete benchmarks. The good news is that the Security Council seems to be considering to take on Human Rights Watch's recommendation of creating a "civilian protection expert group" (CPEG?) that would make sure MONUC implements strict conditionalities on their support of the Congolese army. In other words, the $1 million MONUC provides to the Congolese army (rations, transport, fuel) every month would only come if they comply with some conditions. Foremost amongst these is the removal of the major known human rights offenders (I hear that Bosco, Zimurinda, India Queen, B. Byamungu are top on this list).
2. Diplomats are seriously talking about Kimia II, part II (great name, guys). This is nothing terribly new, but it is important - the army would drastically downsize its offensive against the FDLR to around 10,000 of their best troops (currently, there are up to 60,000 deployed) and put the rest in barracks. This could potentially do wonders for the population. MONUC has ironically gained some leverage for this by helping Kabila out with transport for soldiers he sent to out down the "insurgency" in Equateur province (what exactly is going on there, no one seems to know).
3. The infamous "mapping exercise" that chronicled the largest war crimes and crimes against humanity in the DRC from 1993-2003 is still meandering around in the corridors of power. It was finally vetted by a bunch of different divisions at the High Commission for Human Rights in Geneva and is currently making its way through the Department of Peacekeeping Operations in New York. It will then be sent to the Secretary-General, who will show it to the Congolese government before it is finally published. Word on the street is that is MIGHT be out as early as March 2010, although I fear it could take quite a bit longer. Above all, I hope they are not cutting too much of it out - there are some explosive and fascinating conclusions in the report.
4. And yes, strike up the dirge. The rumors seem to be turning into real information: Alan Doss may well be stepping down as the head of MONUC, as early as March 2010. I have heard several names floated for his replacement (not an enviable post): Aldo Ajello (former EU envoy to the region, very experienced Italian diplomat); Jean Maurice Ripert (former French ambassador to the UN and current the UN envoy to Pakistan); and Jean-Marie Guehenno (former French head of UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations). I think especially the first and the last possibilities would be promising. But as I said, these are rumors (this is why I have a blog and not a press agency, I can dabble in hearsay).
1. Discussions have begun around MONUC's mandate renewal, led by the French (they are always given the lead on Congo matters in the Security Council). There will be a 5-6 month mandate renewal, as requested by Kabila, and preparations for a drawdown based on concrete benchmarks. The good news is that the Security Council seems to be considering to take on Human Rights Watch's recommendation of creating a "civilian protection expert group" (CPEG?) that would make sure MONUC implements strict conditionalities on their support of the Congolese army. In other words, the $1 million MONUC provides to the Congolese army (rations, transport, fuel) every month would only come if they comply with some conditions. Foremost amongst these is the removal of the major known human rights offenders (I hear that Bosco, Zimurinda, India Queen, B. Byamungu are top on this list).
2. Diplomats are seriously talking about Kimia II, part II (great name, guys). This is nothing terribly new, but it is important - the army would drastically downsize its offensive against the FDLR to around 10,000 of their best troops (currently, there are up to 60,000 deployed) and put the rest in barracks. This could potentially do wonders for the population. MONUC has ironically gained some leverage for this by helping Kabila out with transport for soldiers he sent to out down the "insurgency" in Equateur province (what exactly is going on there, no one seems to know).
3. The infamous "mapping exercise" that chronicled the largest war crimes and crimes against humanity in the DRC from 1993-2003 is still meandering around in the corridors of power. It was finally vetted by a bunch of different divisions at the High Commission for Human Rights in Geneva and is currently making its way through the Department of Peacekeeping Operations in New York. It will then be sent to the Secretary-General, who will show it to the Congolese government before it is finally published. Word on the street is that is MIGHT be out as early as March 2010, although I fear it could take quite a bit longer. Above all, I hope they are not cutting too much of it out - there are some explosive and fascinating conclusions in the report.
4. And yes, strike up the dirge. The rumors seem to be turning into real information: Alan Doss may well be stepping down as the head of MONUC, as early as March 2010. I have heard several names floated for his replacement (not an enviable post): Aldo Ajello (former EU envoy to the region, very experienced Italian diplomat); Jean Maurice Ripert (former French ambassador to the UN and current the UN envoy to Pakistan); and Jean-Marie Guehenno (former French head of UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations). I think especially the first and the last possibilities would be promising. But as I said, these are rumors (this is why I have a blog and not a press agency, I can dabble in hearsay).
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