Painting by Cheri Samba

Lokuta eyaka na ascenseur, kasi vérité eyei na escalier mpe ekomi. Lies come up in the elevator; the truth takes the stairs but gets here eventually. - Koffi Olomide

Ésthetique eboma vélo. Aesthetics will kill a bicycle. - Felix Wazekwa

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Kabila's parties have strong lead in legislative elections

With over half of the seats in the legislative elections decided, Kabila's fractious coalition has a strong lead. We could well we looking forward to another five years of the ruling coalition controlling both parliament and the presidency.

Or perhaps I should say "tentatively decided." The legislative election results have been postponed to January 26, after which we can expect a protracted period of disputes, both inside and outside of courts. Kabila's Majorité présidentielle coalition has reportedly even set up an internal committee to deal with disputes. Stalwarts like Bahati Lukwebo, former member of the national assembly leadership, have made harsh accusations against the election commission and other MP candidates for fraud.

Nonetheless, according to my back-of-the-envelope count (don't sue me), here are the preliminary results as of today:

Parties supporting Kabila:
  • PPRD 39 seats
  • PPPD 18
  • MSR (led by Pierre Lumbi) 16
  • ARC (Olivier Kamitatu) 11
  • PALU (Antoine Gizenga) 9
  • AFDC (Modeste Bahati) 4
  • ADH (Jean-Claude Baende) 4
  • UNADEF (Charles Mwando Simba) 4
  • CCU (Lambert Mende) 3
  • COFEDEC (Venant Tshipasa) 3
  • NAD (Athanase Matenda) 3
Opposition parties:
  • UDPS 21
  • MLC 13
  • UNC 9
  • UFC 3
Many other parties only won one or two seats, but it is clear that the ruling coalition has a strong lead, with over half of the 500 seats announced, although their ruling coalition looks like it will be even more fractious than the last one. 

According to the published results, Lukwebo lost his seat in Kabare territory (South Kivu). So how have other legislative candidates fared?

There are some notable winners. Two of the president's siblings won in landslides: his twin sister Jaynet Kabila in the Kalemie (Katanga) constituency, and his brother Zoé Kabila in Manono (Katanga). Meanwhile, presidential advisor Katumba Mwanke won in Pweto territory (Katanga), and two brothers of the election commissioner won - despite controversies surrounding their campaigns - in separate Katangan electoral districts. Other Kabila allies who won: Evariste Boshab (speaker of the national assembly, Mweka territory); Aubin Minaku (head of the Majorité présidentielle coalition, Idiofa); Olivier Kamitatu (minister of planning, ); Jeannine Mabunda (minister of state companies, Bumba); Médard Autsai (governor of Province Orientale, Aru); Adolphe Muzito (prime minister, Kikwit); Konde Vila Kikanda (former governor of North Kivu under Mobutu, Goma); Norbert Katintima (minister of agriculture, Walungu); Jean-Marie Bulambo (minister of medium and small business, Bukavu).

Winners from the opposition include: Anzuluni Bembe (former speaker of parliament under Mobutu, Fizi); Gilbert Kiakwama (opposition leader, Mbanza-Ngungu); Jean Claude Vuemba (opposition leader, Kasangulu); Eve Bazaiba (former opposition spokeswoman, Basoko); Kizito Mushizi (former radio director, Bukavu); Omer Engwake (opposition leader and former minister, Bumba); Delly Sessanga (opposition leader, Luiza); Christian Badibangi (opposition leader, Dimbelenge).

The losers include several officials from the ruling coalition: Alexis Thambe Mwamba (minister of foreign affairs, Kindu); Claude Nyamugabo (minister of sports, Kabare); José Endundo (minister of environment, Mbandaka); Marcellin Cisambo (governor of South Kivu); Shenila Mwanza (senator, Fizi).

32 comments:

ethuin said...

thank you for this update!

Christophe Rigaud said...

Bonjour,
Je ne pense pas que José Makila soit à mettre
dans les soutiens au président Kabila. Makila soutenait Kengo à la présidentielle... peut-être a-t-il changé d'avis depuis....

Christophe Rigaud

Jason Stearns said...

Merci, Christophe - il y a des gens qui chuchotent que Makila se serait rallié a l'MP, mais tu as raison, ce n'est pas officiel ni confirmé. J'ai enlevé ses quatre voix.

Chronologies Grands Lacs said...

En fait, il y a aussi beaucoup d'autres petits "partis" qui ont déclaré soutenir la MP. J'arrive à un total de 145 (dont 42 du PPRD). La stratégie "attrape tout" de Kabila and Co paraît avoir bien fonctionné, même dans les deux Kivu

BradLehigh said...

Thanks for the update Jason, nobody does it better than you.

Rich said...

Jason -

As you said, many are saying that J Kabila will have enough seats to controll the parliament...

I can expect things to be slightly different for the Senate or even the regional Governors when we get to that ...

That said, I wonder where UDPS' 21 + ... MPs will be working; in Lingwala (Palais du Peuple) or Limete (10 eme Rue)? They must for sure come up with an unequivocal attitude rather than, for instance, continue claiming both a thing and its opposite... Doing that may put them in a similar/tricky situation as the pre 2006 where they missed out, amongst many other, a chance, for instance, to have a say in the correction of the constitution (the electoral law: from two to one round for the presidential...) the makeup of the CENI etc...

Rich

Chronologies Grands Lacs said...

To Rich

I am not sure that things will be different for the Senate or the Governors. As Vital Kamerhe told us during a private meeting the day before elections : "in DRC, either you win, either you win. It is never :either you win, either you lose".

As for UDPS, Limete is made up of "radicals" and "moderates". One cannot be sure about who will win

Jason Stearns said...

@Chronologies - merci pour avoir fait ce boulot, je n'ai pas trouvé un liste avec tous ces detailles. Tu l'as online quelque part?

Par rapport a la strategie "attrape tout," c'a apparemment fontionné, mais a aussi crée des problemes au sein de la MP, comme les accusation de Bahati Lukwebo le temoignent.

Anand said...

One step forward, two steps back; the last ten years of DRC politics. Moving in the wrong direction now, in almost all facets. Kabila consolidating "legitimate" power.

Hello Rich. Hope you had a great holiday season.

Chronologies Grands Lacs said...

@Jason

Non. Je ferai plus tard une analyse complète sur mon site google. Je me base pour l'instant sur les résultats publié depuis le 22/12 sur le site de la CENI (248 députés en principe non contestés).

Bahati n'est ni sérieux ni crédible. Pour lui, comme pour beaucoup d'autres, "tout se négocie de même que tout se vend et tout s'achète" (cfr le documentaire étonnant : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1uTtopQeQg

Chronologies Grands Lacs said...

@Jason

Non. Je ferai plus tard une analyse complète sur mon site google. Je me base pour l'instant sur les résultats publié depuis le 22/12 sur le site de la CENI (248 députés en principe non contestés).

Bahati n'est ni sérieux ni crédible. Pour lui, comme pour beaucoup d'autres, "tout se négocie de même que tout se vend et tout s'achète" (cfr le documentaire étonnant : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1uTtopQeQg

Brandon Blattner said...

How do the members of the cabinet (i.e. Minister of the Environment, etc.) get elected? Is it by the prime minister? If so, should we expect the same (or similar) cabinet members for the next term, or are they affected by the legislative vote (or any other influence)?

I'm just curious, as I've never known the answer to this.

Thanks, and keep up the great writing Jason!

Regards,
Brandon

Anonymous said...

Only in DRC an unknown party like the PPPD emerges weeks before the election and comes up with so far the 3rd best results in the election well ahead of parties that have been established for years.... and to this day we don't know who is the founder and the leaders of that party.
@Brandon
The prime minister will emerge probably from the PPRD or its cousin PPPD, everything will be negotiated between the members of the MP coalition, and it will take weeks to create a government. The negative in this type of government is that members are not really responsible before the prime minister since their position has been negotiated within the coalition...and in many cases you have ministers who work independently or against the direction that the prime minister sets.

Rich said...

Chronologies -

You may be right saying we're in for a copycat of the 2006 Assemblee Nationale. However, 2006 taught us that the indirect election of Senat members can be very unpredictable... Remember Kengo beating Okitundu in a Senate dominated by J Kabila's loyals?

As for the governors I bet the majority will not enjoy a record 11 governors out of 11 by the end of the next legislature... I can almost see people like Ngoy Kasanji, Jean Claude Baende or even Andre Kimbuta leaving their seats to the opposition...

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see how this wil unfold.

AFFAIRE A SUIVRE...

Hey Anand -

Great to hear from you brother.

Yes, I had a very refreshing break and towards the end, I almost started to fill hitchy to get back to some serious work and storm my projects...

I wish the Congo Siasa community a great and very peaceful 2012.

Rich

Anonymous said...

My understanding is that Governors will be appointed by the President, and not ellected by the Pronvincial assemblies as in 2006. This was part of the Constitutional changes of 2011. Is this correct?

Chronologies Grands Lacs said...

No, the Governors and Vive-governors are still elected by the provincial assemblies.

blaise said...

@ anonym jan 15.2012 10:20,
that's right, the governors and v-g are still elected by the provincial assemblies but the president of the republic has now the power to sack them and even to dissolute the assembly. That's too much powers given that the president is elected like those mp and is less legitimate than those people who are directly elected by their constituents.

Anonymous said...

just wonder how you can analyse results obtained by fraud while we are talking negotiations or cancelation of results

blaise said...

For the moment, those " fraudulent results" are the reality, facts. Unless there is a coup, they will stand. Beside, how can we denounce fraud if we don't know what were their nature?

Anonymous said...

There are rumours of serious disagreements between PALU and PPRD over who should hold the Prime Minister position. Shouldn't the opisition exploit these disputes to "negotiate away" from AMP PALU and other pro-Gizenga small parties and attemp to form an opposition governing majority in the Parliament?

It looks to me like, given the way Congolese politics works, deal making is always a possibility, even though, admittedly, Kabila has a lot of "goodwill" in the Congolese political class as being someone who can hold his end of a political bargain (see coalition AMP-PALU-UDEMO).

Note: Jason's list does not include DCF/N and RCD-KML (Mbusa Nyamwisi) seats in the opposition column.

Anonymous said...

Anon Jan 17 7:40. Right on! This discussion is just surreal given the circumstances!
Lusamba

Rich said...

Tshisekedi planned to give a press conference today and the following summary has just come out and it is being distributed by tshisekedi sympathisers.

FLASH: LES POINTS FORTS DE LA CONFERENCE DE PRESSE DU PRESIDENT ETIENNE TSHISEKEDI DU 20/01/2012
Publié le 20 janvier 2012 by http://dc-kin.net
LES POINTS FORTS DE LA CONFERENCE DE PRESSE DU PRESIDENT ETIENNE TSHISEKEDI DU 20/01/2012:

1.LE PRESIDENT PREND SA FONCTION ACTIVE AUJOURD HUI;
2.IL VA FORMER SON GOUVERNEMENT LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE;
3.CONSIDERE COMME NULLES LES ELECTIONS LEGISLATIVES;
4.IL PREVOIT UN RECENSEMENT GENERAL DE LA POPULATION AVANT DES ELECTIONS LOCALES ET ENSUITE NATIONALES; …
5.IL REJETTE TOUTE HYPOTHESE DE TABLE RONDE OU AUTRE SOLUTION DE COMPROMIS;
6.IL EST OBLIGE DE FORMER UN GOUVERNEMENT SUR LA BASE DE LA NECESSITE ET L URGENCE ET DE GOUVERNER PAR ORDONNANCE JUSQU A LA MISE EN PLACE DES INSTITUTIONS ELUES SUR LA BASE D UN VERITABLE RECENSEMENT DE LA POPULATION ET L ORGANISATION D ELECTIONS A TOUS LES NIVEAUX;
7. IL CONFIRME LE SOUTIEN DES FORCES ARMEES ET DE LA POLICE ACQUISES AU CHANGEMENT;
8. IL A DONNE LES DETAILS DE SA RENCONTRE AVEC LES EXPERTS DE NDI QUI LUI ONT CONFIRME L IMPOSSIBILITE POUR EUX D ACCOMPLIR LEUR TRAVAIL DE VERIFICATION DES RESULTATS A CAUSE DE L OSTRUCTION DE LA CENI. ILS SONT PARTIS EN COLERE POUR NE PAS AVOIR EU ACCES A AUCUNE INFORMATION OU VRAIE DOCUMENTATION EN MESURE DE LEUR PERMETTRE D ACCOMPLIR LEUR TRAVAIL. D AILLEURS LA PUBLICATION DES RESULTATS DE CES LEGISLATIVES ET RENVOYEE “SINE DIE”;
9. LE PRESIDENT A EXPRIME LA VOLONTE DE SE RENDRE AUJOURD HUI AU PALAIS DE LA NATION.

Anand said...

@Rich - I am wondering what actual effect all of this self proclaiming will have on the general population. Will this compel people to take action? Is that Tshisekedi's intent? I feel I have yet to see any concrete strategy to deal with the elections from any party (U.S., other international players, the church, etc.) everyone seems to fall short of offering up any feasible solutions. I really feel for the average Congolese citizen caught up in this mish- mesh of ideas. With people in the east dealing more with the recent spread of displaced folks from the Kivus to Maniema and Katanga (and in Katanga itself), I hope to see some sort of solution. With every passing day, the elections become more "legitimate."

Rich said...

@ Anand

I don't think this will get any vib from the public. In my opinion, thsisekedi, used all his ammunition well before even the fight start... people are just waking up from the electoral hangover and I don't think they have any energy or desire for yet another confrontation. He's done more than this during the campaign but the massive protest simply failed to take off...

He did the samething during mobutu's era but after a few months meeting at his house in Limete his government disbanded and mobutu carried on as usual...

The international community will always run out of ideas with tshisekedi because he doesn't seem to trust anyone other than himself...

In the east things are not really good since Kinshasa still dealing with the elections leaving the local authorities and NGO trying what they can to contain the situation.

Yes, every passing day, the election become more "legitimate" and you can see that in the press...

From what I heard J Kabila was very keen to open up to the opposition (represented by tshisekedi) but I doubt if tshisekedi will even listen to what Kabila has to say...

In the end, it seems to me like, people just want peace and some help on the social front. Who ever will deliver that will be tolerated by the majority of Congolese.

Images:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftyUQjpvIIE

Rich

Anonymous said...

@Rich:
I do hear ,regularly, that argument: development (i.e.food & security) comes before democracy (i.e. free, fair & transparent elections)...this is fair argument. What happens when you don't have either as it has been the case in the DRC under the Kabilas for the past 15 years?
Just like you, I want to see a prosperous, stable and peaceful Congo, I am not convinced the current political leadership will deliver on that. My guess is that they have been emboldened by the international community indifference and might press ahead with their clearly failed security, social and economic policies.

Rich said...

Anon Jan 21, 2012 2:46 AM -

Ref # "I do hear ,regularly, that argument: development (i.e.food & security) comes before democracy (i.e. free, fair & transparent elections)...this is fair argument."

Trust me, I was not being that deterministic when I said, "In the end, it seems to me like, people just want peace and some help on the social front. Whoever will deliver that will be tolerated by the majority of Congolese.". Do I need to tell you that there is more to that?

What you said in your first sentence is not the point I was trying to make. I observe and speak to Congolese and what I said, was the only way I could summarise their hopes. However, the question to be asked would be, how do you deliver on their hopes? and I was not trying to answer that question…

It is obvious that every problem in the DRC is urgent and legitimate; so, solutions to those problems must be integrated and I don't think that is an easy thing to implement.

Ref # “I am not convinced the current political leadership will deliver on that.”

I don’t quite disagree with you; but, mind you, even the alternative solution to the current leadership is in deep crisis. We all saw how the Congolese opposition failed to agree even on the basics... That's just another way to show that solutions to Congolese problems must imperatively come from Congolese.

Some think that solutions to DRC problems can/must materialise within weeks if not months... Sorry, but my assessment is, it is going to be a very long/slow and tough process. Admitting that reality is in its own a big step towards making peace with oneself and hence with others who are equally/legitimately concerned with the welfare of that nation.

We may not live long enough to see that materialise; but I hope history will, at least, be able to map some significant democracy related progress during the period our generation (born after 1960) increasingly became politically active/involved.

I’ve promised not to reply to anonymous posts but I made an exception. I think people should be able to assume what they say in public.

Rich

Rich said...

Zuma on DRC and protests by Congolese in South Africa...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1KpAJDbkTNU

Anonymous said...

tshisekedi's eagerness to continue life as the president of limete only undermines his own credibility. after all, time is not on his side. i'm not offering a moral evaluation of the elections, just a practical one. in 2006 he missed the train; now it's as though he insists that the train stops with him after it has already gone by. i think all this controversy blows over, and kabila gets on with life. the real question is what is the next step for the opposition beyond engaging in a kind of meaningless kabuki.

blaise said...

@ Rich,
I think there was a study around 2006 which stated that social development come before democracy. The reason advanced was that the emerging bourgeoisie will push for more and more freedom. That push will expand to the rest. There was only two exception to the rule: Singapore and Senegal.
For what I see, in Singapore the prime minister and his associates allocated to themselves huge paid while in Senegal the president is trying to cling to power.
What I'm trying to say regarding Congo is that we need to develop the social front first in order to achieve democracy. As long as we will have people so poor that a mere 1000 dollars can buy you political supports we will go no where.
I believe that we need to work as the Hezbollah and the Hamas in the social front. How?
- determine the problems
- divide the country by sectors
- devise a plan
- create source of funds
- establish a subscription program to sustain the plan
- coordinate with NGO so that you are not doing the same thing

It's reported that there is more than 2 millions Congolese people abroad and some more friends. I believe if we band together it's possible to start something and finance the revolution within Congo.
A credible candidat for me should be the catholic Church: they have the infrastructure, the people and the discipline to pull that off.
For the army and the police, get them in the payroll, buy their loyalty. People react to incitement : we know they are poor, we know they are illiterate. How about addressing their fears?
I strongly believe that it's possible to find enough goodwill in and out of Congo in order to develop the country.

Anonymous said...

Hi Jason,

Thanks for this post which,as informative as it is, seems to me as coming short of relevance. Of course, these are only the "preliminary results" as released so far by CENI. Perhaps as evidenced by the relatively limited number of comments to this post, people's focus of attention is somewhere else, not really on these unreliable CENI results, but on what's going on inside CLCRs, or compilation centers.

That's why I'd humbly suggest that you kindly share with your readers whatever information you have at your disposal regarding the ongoing messy COMPILATION (which is now being labeled as COMPLICATION) process for the legislative polls.

It's interesting to note CENI's significant departure from its earlier position that the electoral body was not a dispute resolution entity, that they would only count and publish results. Whatever claims or grievances candidates might have over them shall have to be referred to the courts. Now, CENI announced yesterday the umpteenth postponement of the release of legislative results citing the necessity to resolve the backlog of disputes over the results (I suppose they are referring to results which have already been announced. One can't dispute results that have not been announced). This left me wondering what could be the rationale behind such sudden change of approach. I almost instantly guessed why: the bulk of disgruntled fellows are among the MP ruling coalition candidates. So, when mostly it's the opponents who are not happy about the resuts, they are referred to the courts; when the same fate befall pro-Kabila candidates, let's resolve the disputes at CENI level...(And of course, this time around, oppositionists will hopefully be also the beneficiaries of this measure).

In a nutshell, pro-Kabila candidates are accusing pro-Kabila candidates of stealing each other's votes with CENI's blessing. If they could do that to their pals, what about their foes? It's anybody's guess...

Bruno

Anonymous said...

You Lazy (Intellectual) African Scum!

http://mindofmalaka.wordpress.com/2012/01/18/you-lazy-intellectual-african-scum/

Mwafrika.

Jason Stearns said...

To many of the above posts: You are absolutely right, these results need to be treated with a heavy load of salt, as they are just preliminary and many of them are fiercely contested. Nonetheless, it is reasonable to think that the results are an indication for what the final (perhaps not true or fair) results will look like.

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