Painting by Cheri Samba

Lokuta eyaka na ascenseur, kasi vérité eyei na escalier mpe ekomi. Lies come up in the elevator; the truth takes the stairs but gets here eventually. - Koffi Olomide

Ésthetique eboma vélo. Aesthetics will kill a bicycle. - Felix Wazekwa

Monday, April 30, 2012

As fighting in Kivus intensifies, deeper problems linger

The weekend saw a confusing situation develop in North Kivu, with serious fighting breaking out for the first time between Bosco's troops in Masisi and the Congolese army. The "mutineers," as Bosco's forces are now being called, took the upper hand and took the towns of Mweso, Mushaki and Karuba, and were even threatening the lakeside town of Sake, the gateway to Goma. Meanwhile, the Congolese army appeared disorganized and confused; the deputy regional commander, Col. Jonas Padiri, was stuck with several other senior officers for almost a whole day before he could get back to Sake.

In the meantime, troops loyal to Commander Sheka Ntaberi, a Mai-Mai commander in Walikale, have also taken control of several towns in central Walikale, as Congolese army troops have retreated from the area. The price of food items is going up dramatically in Goma, as it is cut off from important hinterlands, and thousands of people are fleeing from the violence. Rumors abound, often contradicting each other - some say that Rwandan troops have infiltrated to prop up Bosco, others conjecture that Bosco has struck a cynical alliance with the FDLR.

But behind the bluster, a deeper story is playing out. While the trigger of the conflict was Bosco's fear of being arrested and taken to the Hague, it is unlikely that he would have been able to mobilize this many troops without some help. Indeed, in the early days of his mutiny, he appeared to have faltered, as many of his ex-CNDP comrades failed to go along with him. Again and again, commanders mutinied only to see most of their troops re-defect back to the government.

Then, however, something appeared to change. The main mutineers - Cols. India Queen, Saddam, Zaire, Baudouin, Butoni, Zimurinda - converged on the Masisi highlands, their home turf. Some tactical mistakes were made by the Congolese army, such as giving Col. Baudouin, a Bosco loyalist, a truck full of ammunition and tens of thousands of dollars for supplies, only to see him reject his new assignment and head back to join Bosco, arms and all.

But there is a deeper problem, one that goes beyond just tactical mistakes and disorganization. Both Rwanda and the ex-CNDP cadres can suffer to see Bosco go - after all, many have personal quibbles with him. But they cannot suffer to see the CNDP networks and power dismantled. And this is what was lurking on the horizon as Kabila brought in loyalist troops ("special forces"), arrested prominent ex-CNDP allies, and redeployed a few ex-CNDP commanders outside of the Kivus. Now, even ex-CNDP commanders who had previously been hostile to Bosco are openly dismissive of the offensive against him and express sympathy for his cause. In sum, the foundation of the 2009 peace deal between Kigali, Kinshasa and the CNDP is being shaken.

We are likely in for some more fighting before the situation becomes any clearer. For now, Gen. Gabriel Amisi (Commander of Land Forces) and Gen. Didier Etumba (Commander of the Army) have arrived back in Goma to oversee the operations themselves. Let's see what will happen.

96 comments:

Anand said...

This analysis raises a ton of questions and concerns.

1. Will Kigali get involved (even if under the table)?

2. Are ethnic and historical beefs fading in favor of self interest?(i.e. "others conjecture that Bosco has struck a cynical alliance with the FDLR.")

3. Did Western players have any idea what pushing for Bosco's arrest, using military means, could lead to? Is this tied to SSR? Because 1000s displaced doesn't seem very secure.

4. Is the U.S. strategy of letting go of the elections and working with Kinshasa going to backfire in general?

5. Will there be any backlash against the general Tutsi population? I had read a post that several Tutsi's were fleeing, though not confirmed.

I am not optimistic about anybody's diplomatic abilities nowadays, but I certainly hope this tamps down somehow.

blaise said...

I hate to said that " I told u so" to some people who were advocating the arrest of bosco without solving some prealable in the army. I don't think the destruction of those networks are the main motive of the new rebellion. I think we are underestimating the fear factor those who rebelled must feel. There must be discipline in the army but in the same time you have to encourage defection not send ultimatum if u are not ready to back up your words. How comes the fardc are always taken by surprise? Did cheka has commandos has well? As long that those who are corrupted will call the shots the fardc will fail.

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot Jason for this, there is a lot of confusion on official media around the problem and your post is great.

A source state that Rwanda is supporting both Bosco and Cheka that allegedly is operating from Giseny (?!?).
The New Times, in these last two days presented the news in this way: refugees fleeing exactions of FDLR and LRA. Is it smoke in the eyes for covering support somewhere or eventually tu justify a new interventions?

"the foundation of the 2009 peace deal between Kigali, Kinshasa and the CNDP is being shaken. " sounds like the crucial of the problem. Does this mean that we are back to a cndp-related political problem rather than a cross-cutting justice (and salary) issue with cndp-pareco integrated units as it seemed at the beginning? If so should we expect again a situation similar to that of the failed peace of 2008?

How far can go the eventual alliane Cheka-cndp-bosco-rwanda?
Isn't dangerous for Kagame to repeat mistakes of 2008 and risk once again public charges that could fragilise his leadership at the eyes of the int.community?

Any reaction from FDLR in NK? Mouvements, preparations, contacts?

In the end we can say that every 1.5/2 years there is a serious crise in NK. It's mathematical, recurrent and donors and policy makers should think about it.

andrea

Rich said...

Thanks andrea, Blaise & Anand -

It is clear that fighting between loyalists and bosco + his/rwandan faithful intensified since last weekend.

Is the fighting a final last stand of bosco et al. and their handlers, or is it a sign of a revival of the movement(cndp)? We do not know yet. Will nkunda be released from his sabbatical to help out?

On Monday evening, in a spectacular twist (after condemning, early this month, the initial mutiny); cndp representatives have now condemned FARDC attacks against mutineers. cndp’s national president Edouard Hizi Mwangachuchu says, soldiers who deserted did so for "security reasons,".

I don’t know how many innocent Congolese need to die, this time round; before those pushing for the arrest of bosco starts to admit they can see kigali’s hand in both preventing this arrest and manufacturing this nth upsurge of armed conflict and violence in Kivu! What is Human Right Watch et al. waiting to single out rwanda’s unscrupulous behaviour in Masisi and lobby for it to stop without delay?

Yes everyone is waiting for an interesting excess death toll before they can try anything but the statistics to be contained in that 'interesting' excess death toll are people like you and me... That is sickening...

Rich

Anonymous said...

how about, if this was a threat to Rwanda!! and Kabila was doing analogically some reverse psychology!! doing the same thing Museveni did, covertly, to support the RPF to go on the front. Hence, this would explain the ammunitions and supplies... One should never underestimate Kabila, he might be the leader, us congolese people need badly.

blaise said...

@ Anonym MAY 1, 2012 5:06 AM,
I would not underestimate Kabila for sure but in the same time I don't think he is that sophisticated to use reverse psychology. I think he is good at playing the victim's card than anything else.
Don't take me wrong, I don't particularly love or hate the man but it's in adversity that leadership blossom. As far as I'm concerned, Kabila appears weak in the light of the events.
I will love to know who is( I'm sorry for the expression) the idiot who authorized that 40,000 dollars transfer plus ammunition. That's sound like bribery to me. That's telling me there was no trust in the first place here. Whatever the reasons, that was stupid in a military standpoint.
Maybe someone can help me here: why did he matters if or not Rwanda is supporting the CNDP? As powerful as they are, they have their limitations. I'm just curious about JK's strategy. Did he really want to end all that? Mbusa Mabe showed that with the right leadership even Nkunda/Rwanda can be defeated. His reward? He was parked at Kamina.
I maybe wrong but as far as I know,Nyabolwa was in Mayele's team that stopped for a while FPR's advance in Rwanda. Is he even near the front? I doubt it.
We lack leadership, that's all. Rwanda is not invincible. If they commit too much of their forces in Congo they will expose their mainland to their enemies. I don't think Kagame is that stupid.

Anonymous said...

@ Anand

Did the Western powers have any idea what pushing for Bosco's arrest could lead to? I wondered about that when General Carter Ham was dispatched to Kinshasa a few weeks back to push for Bosco's arrest.

Sending an officer of his rank on a public mission was certainly intended as a signal to all of the governments in the region...one that Rwanda has apparently chosen to ignore. Perhaps the Pentagon calculated that General Ham's visit would be enough to deter Kigali from launching yet another precipitous action in the Kivus.

Given that, as Andrea points out, these crises erupt with predictable regularity I find it difficult to believe that policymakers didn't anticipate that an attempt to arrest Bosco would lead to a violent reaction.

Are we witnessing the effects of a policy miscalculation...or was it decided that sooner or later a confrontation with the CNDP was inevitable? I don't know...but as blaise points out the FARDC should not have been pushed into a confrontation until it is operationally ready to deal with every possible contingency. Perhaps it is.

Bruce

Anand said...

@Bruce - Excellent analysis. You may have a point that Western powers felt a confrontation with CNDP would be inevitable. I always wonder though, if the U.S. and others has any idea what the complexities are when they push for military action. Based on the U.S.'s own recent track record of military action, I would say foresight is usually lacking. Western motivations, that's a whole other complex story.

@Blaise - I totally agree that as long as motivations are corrupt, FARDC will falter. I too am wondering about JK's strategy or goal.

@Rich - You make the most important point we can consider. With the deep history of conflict and civilian suffering in this area, why must we quantify suffering to judge how "big" the problem is. It's big now. 1000s displaced. That always reads very innocuously. But displacement is suffering and often leads to more insecurity for those affected. I think this misguided action should be protested now, before it gets "out of hand." Because I don't see that any parties involved are considering civilian impact in any way.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't put too much into the new times reports that people were fleeing LRA and FDLR. New Times is very pro Rwanda/Kagame and for them to say this is FDLR and not CNDP is no surprise

While it would be interesting to know what FDLR is up to during all this, it is generally understood that people fleeing from Goma into Gisenyi are fleeing the FARDC/ex CNDP fighting - not FDLR or LRA. I don't even think LRA is currently that far south.

@BradLehigh

Anonymous said...

@rich I don't know UN timing but maybe there is a quick chance. UN Group of experts are supposed tu deliver an interim report normally near the end of the month of May. I wonder if a draft has already been sent to NY. If not maybe there is room for further research on the "eventual" rwandan support to the rebellion.
Last time with Nkunda it worked very well; I wonder if western donors are very pissed off with JK after the election they could really push now for strong reform of the security sector. It would be just one more scream at JK's ear.

Coming back to the alliances interesting to see how this will develop. I'm thinking at potential reflex in SK. Raia mutomboki, FRF, all the groups MM in South Kivu just can't wait an order (even unofficial) from Kinshasa to join in and give "Amani Leo" back to cndp people. It really risks to escalate again if rwanda's intervention is clear

andrea

Anonymous said...

I have really very little to add other than, as we've all said in other threads, let's continue to pray and hope for the best and that the powers that be have several contingencies in place as this situation evolves.

Personally, I fully support the effort to "get" Bosco (whatever this ends up meaning) given a false peace where women are raped daily, trade in conflict minerals continues unabated, children work in mines instead of going to school, and displacement is the reality for way too many people.

That is not peace to me and I'm glad that a real peace is in the making. Yes, collateral damage is horrifying but noone should prefer a false peace to real peace and, unfortunately, in the Eastern Congo the only choices are bad and worse in the short term. Thus, if this gets us to real peace in the LONG term I will continue to support this effort.

False peace, in my humble opinion, only contributes to inertia which only contributes to the status quo.

Its time to break the inertia and stop being ok with the horrific exploitation, criminality, impunity, and sexual violence that has come with this false peace.

Mel

Anonymous said...

Also, I wanted to highlight a blog post from Enough's Blog.

http://www.raisehopeforcongo.org/blog/post/obama-administration-support-key-part-fight-against-conflict-minerals-independent-monitori

The Obama Administration will be supporting, or really increasing more funding for, conflict mineral monitoring along the lines of Jason's ideas to the tune of $4 million dollars.

This is a big victory for us activists and, I'd venture, a sign that the Adminstration is very serious about cleaning up the "networks" Jason and Judith keep mentioning that fuels all this- both on the Rwanda side (and its proxies) and in the Congo.

It is this seriousness, coupled with the effort to get Bosco and the Ham visit that should give us hope about this current flare up.

I actually found this link from a new facebook group "Congolese Americans for Obama".

http://www.facebook.com/CongoleseAmericansForBarackObama

Mel

Anand said...

@Mel - Thanks so much for your thoughts and the links. I agree that the status quo is not acceptable and the "peace" has not been particularly peaceful for far too many. I also agree that allowing Bosco (and others) impunity, is not a viable standard. I am just not convinced that this particular course of action we are seeing is a precursor to creating a lasting peace. I don't even know that this is the motivation of the parties involved. And I have yet to see that this current initiative is well planned out. I do see that it is taking a civilian toll already though. Hopefully you are right that it will lead to something positive.

Regarding the Enough story:. For some reason, the link to Jason and Steve's proposal wouldn't open for me, so can't react to that. I am happy for even the smallest progress made on mining legitimacy. I wonder though how the ideas in the Enough story could work in an environment of shifting control and murky supply chains. Seems difficult to validate a mine today, if that may not be true tomorrow. Need to read up more. Thanks for the heads up!

Rich said...

Bosco has broken his silence.

bosco was speaking to AFP by telephone on Tuesday 1st/04/2012 this is what Africa No1 reported:

"Je ne suis pas impliqué dans les affrontements qui se passent entre les FARDC (Forces armées de la RDC) et les militaires qui ont fait défection" he said in Swahili.

He went on to say,

"Je suis dans ma ferme près de Mushak. Ma hiérarchie militaire sait que je suis là et m’a autorisé d’y reste. Même le chef de l’Etat (Joseph Kabila) le sait..." he insisted.

This to me is yet another deja vu. Bosco is not a man of peace and now he is trying to manipulate and buy time to plan more misery for local communities.

I don't know what strategy this can be... but J Kabila should show some leadership on this and state in clear terms that he has ordered the arrest of bosco. By now he should know that people around him are really bad at reading his mind when they don't contradict each other they simply end up creating even more mess when they try to interprete his unclear orders...

Rich

Anonymous said...

Hi All,

Since early this morning Colonel Smith's troops have surrounded Bosco Ntaganda's house where more than 20 Loyal escorts leave.
They surrounded a large area (From BCC bank up to Sainte espirit church)It is in the center of Goma town where many civilian live.
If they try to disarm remaining Bosco's escorts by force, it will be a disaster - I do not think if Bosco's troops will give up easily.
While i am typing this message, many civilian staying around the very area are escaping before the worst comes.
The residence of Bosco is located at the border of Rwanda, if a single bullet fired to Rwanda Territory, i think Rwandan soldiers may react - but i do not know in which way.
For the sake of Civilian i wish the confronting get finished peacefully.

More to come as it happens.....

CHURUCHURU

Anonymous said...

This is consequence of the deal peace of January 2009. The roots problems were not resolved at that time. Peoples were busy to quicly integrate the CNDP troops into FARDC and ignoring the "cahier des charges". Now again int.communities will push for the arrest of Bosco and over look for the roots problems.For sustainable peace the so called int. communities with JK must have the humility of resolving the roots problems and then arrest Bosco.

Anonymous said...

As far as I know, Bosco's main residence is not located in that area, but rather in Katindo somewhat near Ishango hotel. Moreover, Colonel Smith does not seem entitled to conduct this operation. I guess this operation is another smokescreen to hide something very awful. Why these CNDP soldiers cannot behave like Masunzu's soldiers in South Kivu and earn respect of their congolese fellows? Patrick Masunzu has really helped the case of Congolese Tutsi, while Nkunda, Bosco and their friends are only jeopardizing reconciliation with other congolese tribes in Kivu

blaise said...

@ Anon MAY 2, 2012 1:12 AM,
I agree with your assertion. The example of Masunzu and his faction is a case against all anti-Tutsi sentiment in the army.
Of course there is stigmatization and resentment but only justice and discipline will make this magic to spread.
@ Rich and Mel,
the question I'm asking myself is simple: is Kabila for peace or not? His actions suggest that anything will be better than real peace. Leadership wise, he should have plant his tent in Goma until harmony is restored in NK.

Anonymous said...

If you sit and talk to opinion leaders in Kivu (church leaders, traditional chiefs, civilian society leaders, etc.), it seems crystal clear for them that the current president is against any long lasting peace in Kivu. After all he was a soldier in 1996 and was part of the AFDL which committed massacres. Was not he under the orders of General Nkunda and Bosco in Kisangani and Tingi-Tingi? If these guys were to be arrested and stand trial, they could talk and say unpleasant things...
Therefore, he will do whatever possible to protect these guys.
I have had the privilege to talk to inner circles of Kivu bishops as well as some leaders in the military and they are adamant he is aware. There is even a specific story when the Butembo bishop implored the President by phone to do his utmost to prevent CNDP troops to take Kanyabayonga. JK, who was in Lubumbashi promised to solve his problem. A couple of hours later, the president called back the bishop to reassure him, and within 24 hours, the CNDP battalions lifted the siege of Kanyabayonga, without even firing a single bullet.
It is unfortunate for Kivu people because they do not deserve this leader. Kivu is so lovely and its people so cute and so friendly. But seeing fear and despair in their eyes whenever you meet is difficult to bear.

Anonymous said...

@ Anonymous May2, 2012 1:12

Bosco has never stayed in Katindo. He was staying near to the border with Rwanda then after the UN experts accusation for smuggling mineral, he shifted to another house but the same area. At the time he left his former house, his loyal escorts remained in the house.

I think this is the last war to be happened and long lasting solution to come.
Kabila is doing two tricks at the same time.
He wanted to satisfy the devils and Angels.
If the Angels aware of his tricks, he will be lucky but if the devils aware of the tricks he will pay for it.

CHURUCHURU

Rich said...

Blaise -

I personally think JK is very committed to peace and I say this for fact because I saw him in action back in 1998 when he was in charge of operations at the airport of Njili and assissted She Okitundu the then Minister for Human Right to make sure people accused of being rwandan or tutsi were taken care of and handed safely to Red Cross people and other NGOs. We went to see him concerning a family of Congolese wrongly accused of being rwandan etc... and he was ever so helpful. He seems very conciliatory than his father for instance and there are many examples to back that...

That said, I know every one may have very strong opinions on this but let's remind ourselves that this conflict is older than J K and over the years, different regimes both in rwanda and DRC have exploited this conflict for political agendas rather than peace.

Now, wanting peace and delivering it is not a straight forward affair. As Chuchuru said, there is a dilemma here, angels and devils wanting to be pleased... If we were in a political system protected by societal security the answer to the bosco's sad saga would have been to follow the law by the letter and the matter would have been resolved. However, we are in a political system were governance is protected by a regime security rather than a societal one. This means, although the law is there to be applied, people will still wait for the boss to specify what he wants. When the boss does not specify what he wants you have all sorts of interpretation and other zealous officials who can step into the vacuum occasioned by the confusing orders of the boss to do their own want rather than the society ones...

So,we are seeing a bit of that in the case of bosco. J Kabila was pushing bosco to commit a fault so JK could use it to arrest hence please those pushing for the arrest of bosco in return for some credit to top up of his deflated legitimacy. Now, bosco is aware of the trap and have made sure he can lobby (militarily or else) but not openly committing the mistake J Kabila wants him to commit (by that I mean participating openly in operations on the side of those who defected from FARDC). Now, this is difficult for J kabila because he gave bosco his word that he will not hand him over to the ICC and rwanda is the witness of that promise.

Brief, unless as J Kabila said earlier this month, he has more than a hundred reasons to arrest bosco, he should then show some leadership and order his officers to just do that; but at the same time prepare for rwanda and bosco's community in DRC to come after him in whatever form they will decide...

as long as bosco is not killed in the operation there will always be a chance to fix this in a peaceful way. So, if the army can do a good job by administering the stick but not killing the culprit and indeed innocent civilians that will be a good outcome from which to continue consolidating peace...

I was thinking and writing at the same time so it may read all over the place...

Rich

FrancoPepeKalle said...

Mr. Kabila has once again shown his lack of leadership. It does not surprise me that Kabila has not caled for their arrest of Bosco. If he did, he would be screwed. His phony friend Kagame would hurt him with his big army. Bosco is another Laurent Nkunda. He may end up arrested but nothing will happen. As long as Kabila is president, nothing good will ever occur.

blaise said...

@ Rich,
I don't know, it seems to me that afande Kabila was a more conciliatory person than rais Kabila. I remember also some stories about him before being president. Some people may interpret his actions with She O. as trying to protect "his people". Idk, I miss the man he used to be. I cheered when his father brought him back from China, he was such a contrast from the average AFDL commandders.
But that said, I'm not convince his actual actions promote peace. In the contrary, he seems to exacerbate tensions among those tribes. I tend to believe what a gentleman said about some conversation in the East. I'm afraid that absolute power yet again corrupted absolutely.
As far as I can tell his ways of dealing with the situation a4re catastrophic:
- too many indiscipline troops
- favor some groups against others
- don't crack down on corruption
- advocacy of military might versus permanent solution
In my understanding, if one want peace in the Kivus, he should first address people fears, promote justice and reconciliation. Threatening a militia armed to the teeth is either foolish or short sighted. either way, we are in the losing hand as far as peace is concern.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rich,

I agree with most of your comments, but let me give some thoughts :
1. Though Kabila protected people accused of being rwandan tutsi back in 1998 in Kinshasa him as someone who is for everlasting peace.
2. I think that basically Kabila can be considered as a good person if we look back in 1998.
3. Nevertheless, we have to look at what he is doing now and judge every move.
4. How can we explain these facts :
- people are assassinated on a daily basis in Goma, Butembo, Beni and so far no reaction from him. I would love to see him act as he acted in 1998. Last year in Butembo, he told suffering people in Butembo that if this killing were taking place, it was their only fault. This prompted the Butembo bishop to write an open letter complaining on the behavior of the president. The letter was published by a catholic media outlet.
- Why can't he show the same commitment towards people of Butembo and Beni now, as he did towards the congolese tutsi back in 1998? These are facts, unless one decides to overlook and ignore them.
Why is he not now in Goma to oversee the operations?
- Back in 2004, I had the privilege to witness first hand the damages of Nkunda in Bukavu. Bukavu people expected him to show some sympathy, but this never occured. Instead,the general who ousted Nkunda out of the town was removed and is dead right now. These are bad signals he gives and at the end, they will come back to haunt him.
Throughout these events, General Patrick Masunzu opted to remain loyal to Congo rather than engaging in these unnecessary wars. He even had to sustain a war against Rwanda who was not happy that the guy opted for the country instead of the tribe.
The General must be lauded for that and hopefully he will play a more important role in the years to come.
As for Kabila, he must face pressure and arrest Ntaganda once for all. It is time for Terminator to stand trial. I was very dissapointed to read these letters to UN asking for the charges against Bosco to be dropped. This is really shameful.

A remark for CHURUCHURU:
I was in Goma few months ago. Back to my hotel, we passed near a heavily guarded house near Ishango hotel. My driver (a local from Goma) told me it was Bosco's residence. I had no means to check ; however given the strength in display it was difficult for me to have a different opinion. To be honest, I did not conduct any inquiry and believed my driver.
From Rwanda Border to Goma, I did not see something else heavily guarded.

Anonymous said...

william.nall@wfp.org

Rich said...

News from Goma -

"The Congolese government has asked me to communicate the following -- everything that is happening currently in the Masisi is under the responsibility of General Bosco Ntaganda and he should be sought for that," said Julien Paluku, governor of Nord-Kivu.

"If our units catch hold of him, he will have to answer for all his actions before Congolese jurisdictions," the governor said, adding that even if it takes "a war" to do so, "we will do it."

Rich

Anonymous said...

I have learned that the soldiers deployed in Goma to fight the renegades are disciplined soldiers who were trained by Belgian officers in Kindu. If this is true, it means that Kabila has finally yielded to the pressure from Belgium who were asking that these soldiers be sent to fight in Kivu. Back in 2009 the training was conducted in Kananga (Occidental Kasai). The training camp was moved in Kindu which is near to the battlefield. Instead of being sent in Kivu hills, the first trained battalions were sent in Equateur province to quell the Enyele rebellion, while other battalions were redirected to Kinshasa. I heard some belgian officials complaining about that. They believed that Kabila did not trust these new trained soldiers. I had the chance to talk to a reliable source close to these soldiers and it appears that they were not happy with how the Equateur situation was handled. They were told that they would conduct peace keeping operations or fight tribal warriors. For that purpose they were given light weaponry and little if any ammunition, only to find out that they had to fight a real war against ex-FAZ soldiers. They sustained heavy losses though they prevailed the end. This irked some military experts, who were convinced these soldiers were voluntarily sent to slaughter. It will be interesting to see how the war is conducted this time and what means are given to these disciplined FARDC. If the same thing we saw in Mushaki and Equateur is repeated, then many experts will conclude that Kabila is not interested in a long lasting peace. He is being pressured and asked to deliver. So let's watch and see how things unfold...

Anonymous said...

Any comments on Julien Paluku's claim that they caught an FDLR element (Emmanuel Ndirenganya) fighting with Major Gasore (Close to Bosco)

I cannot imagine why the FDLR would be working with Bosco while he in turn is allied with Sheka.

My gut tells me that Ndirenganya working with Gasore is more personal and doesn't actually have anything to do with the FDLR

@BradLehigh

Anand said...

@Brad - I've been wondering if the fundamental philosophy and dynamic behind FDLR might be changing as membership changes with time. Also, some leaders being recently assassinated, and arrested in the past few years, might contribute to a shift in focus or at least strategy. I am not very well researched on the current make up of FDLR, now 18 years or so post Rwandan Genocide. Also wondering if Mai-Mai Yakutumba has taken any stance on the recent happenings. Sorry if this was covered earlier. I don't remember reading about it.

Rich said...

Anand & Brad -

I have my doubts about the alliance ex-cndp - fdlr -mai mai etc...

I may be wrong but if this is the case on the ground as many reports tend to suggest, then bosco is literally isolated and in for a personal fight rather than representing any rwandan agenda... Because rwanda will never ever side with fdlr. You have to see what is happening with the trial of Victoire Ingabire in rwanda as she is accused of dealing with fdlr...

I guess things will get clearer with time... many reports are saying FARDC are taking back lost grounds with no resistance from the rebels. That is good news but I am very cautious since it sounds more like a deja vu to me, we all can remember Mushaki back in 2007...

Still it has been said, the number of IDP is increasing fast...

Rich

Anonymous said...

Exactly, that is what i pointed out!! why ex cndp's are going along with Fdlr and mai mai? Answering this question correctly demands deep research, but for the start, upfront; one needs to look closely on the alliances that are happening on the political platform,between the RNC and the FDU( mind you , this is Ingabire party, that is allegedly linked to the fdlr). As one said earlier analogically, the last cards are getting played!! In my opinion even though what is happening right now in Congo, is affecting its stability, the worst will contagiously affect Rwanda. And something needs to be done by the international community to stop the violence, these so called lord of wars.
the international community can do something, in the most economical ways, cheaper than what they did in Libya, Afghanistan, and Irak!!! But the will need to be there;the Monuc has been there for a decade, however the bias that was in the UN mission in 94 is still present in the Congo, probably even worst.

Anand said...

@Rich - You may well be right. Some of these possible alliances seem a bit far fetched. But at the same time, Bosco seems to operate in sort of a middle ground. He might have some Rwandan backing and some of his own networks. It seems that power, control, and survival are more pressing objectives than political or social philosophies for many armed groups nowadays. This could lead to odd alliances, especially if those groups are somewhat fractured. I suppose we will see. Thanks for the update on IDPs. This could become a huge issue. As you, I am cautious to react to anything yet. Still too early.

@Anon May 2, 3:26PM - I agree that the International Community should take measures to curb violence, especially when so many civilians are already affected. Part of the problem, as you note, is that the will is not there. And some Western powers may be stoking the current situation by pushing Kinshasa. Tough situation.

Anonymous said...

From http://mushakipager.blogspot.com/
Very interesting analyse
TOUJOURS A LA CASE DU DEPART
Les vautours, comme tout le monde, sous le coup de la confusion qui recommence au Nord-Kivu nous servent des interprétations variées de ce qui se passe. Le scenario indiscutable pour eux c'est que Ntaganda ayant peur d'être arrêté, se retire dans le Masisi et allume le feu qui se propage. Mais puisqu'ils croient Ntaganda incapable de faire quoi que ce soit sans Kagame, ils lisent dans les dernières échauffourées du Masisi, une manoeuvre du Rwanda. Cela ne m'étonnerait pas de voir les calculs de 2008 se repéter avec tout le bataclan de rapports d'experts de l'ONU, HRW, ICG, etc. Enfin, franchement c'est ce que les vautours veulent que tout le monde pense. Les vautours et tous ceux qui se sont habitués à considérer la RDC comme une entité gérée par les officines activistes au service de divers multinationales qui payent les experts en RDC, qui à leur tour créent ces interprétations. Elles ne nous mènent nulle part du reste, car nous revenons sans cesse à la case du départ tant pour les problèmes militaires endémiques de la RDC, que pour ses questions politiques toujours irrésolues comme je ne cesse de le rappeler.

Alors de quoi il retourne encore? Une déclaration de ce que je continue de considérer comme le faux CNDP, c'est-à-dire, celui de Ntaganda, circule depuis hier. Si j'en comprends bien le contenu, il met en question l'incapacité de Kinshasa d'honorer sa part d'engagement dans les fameux accords bidon de janvier 2009. Ce CNDP (faux) qui fait partie de la majorité présidentielle encore, n'a-t-il pas d'autre moyens d'exiger ou de faire entendre ses revendications? Renvoyer aux accords de 2009 arrache un sourire narquois à ceux qui savons que ces accords étaient entachés de traitrise, et il aurait été terriblement surprenant de les voir faire avancer la paix en RDC. J'espère que qui a trahi ne trahira pas encore, ne fut-ce que pour contredire le dicton. Car maintenant il y a bel et bien une crise initiée depuis le memorandum de troupes auquel Kabila a répondu d'une façon plutot cavalière, toujours dorloté par le fait que les vautours le couvrent et sont les premiers à l'aider à pointer du doight les tutsis du Kivu pour n'importe quel gachis. Et ce faisant, ils déplacent le problème complètement. Il serait souhaitable que ceux qui ont trahi, prennent cette nouvelle opportunité pour éclipser la traitrise, et revenir à la raison qui dicte ceux-ci:

1) Les accords de 2009 n'ont avancé en rien la solution militaire et politique pour retablir aussi bien la paix que l'autorité de l'Etat en RDC et bien entendu, au Kivu.

2) Pour relancer le dialgue sur le fond et la forme de cette question complexe, que les vautours s'acharnent à traiter d'une manière par trop simpliste, il faut aller plus loin que les accords de Janvier 2009. Il faut plutot faire marche arrière jusqu'à la fameuse conférence qui a suivi la victoire du vrai CNDP sur les hauteurs de Mushaki en 2008. Cette conférence avait produit une avancée sérieuse en la forme des négociations interrompues à Nairobi, peu avant la traitrise de janvier 2009 exactement.

3) Que les vautours cessent de maquiller les problèmes politiques irrésolues de l'Est du pays en brandissant le spectre du Rwanda car cette argument d'une monotonie inutile ne comporte aucune solution. Ceux qui ont des comptes personnelles ou affairistes à regler avec le regime rwandais devraient trouver d'autre moyen de lui presenter opposition. Tot ou tard, il faudra bien faire face au probleme politique congolais de l'Est qu'on ne résoud pas par bouc emissaire interposé indéfiniment.

4) Si le faux CNDP se trouve en difficulté avec Kinshasa aujourd'hui, cela n'est rien d'autre qu'une preuve de ce que Laurent Nkunda avait raison depuis le début. ...next on the blog

Anonymous said...

To Anand,

Alliance between CNDP and FDLR are not that fetched as you might think. In fact, they can cooperate when it comes to gold or coltan smuggling. This is what Congolese working for NGO often tell us. In fact they even share a beer in the hills, as witness working for HCR witnessed it in Lemera. The mission was there to prepare for the resettlement of returnees from Tanzania and were shown CNDP-FARDC soldiers and FDLR-Interahamwe sharing a beer and relaxing.
Do not forget that these people (CNDP, FDRL and various Mai mai militia) talk, discuss, trade, smuggle and fight. The common goal is to loot as much as they can. I would love to see someone explaining the rationale of Bosco behaviour when he recruits children, slaughter people and smuggle gold and coltan. This is basically the same as FDLR and mai mai

ghulam sarwar said...

thank you for sharing

sameer said...

nice work

Anonymous said...

It is surprising to me why still so many people think the FDLR are "anti-Kagame". The FDLR are totally harmless to Kagame and they have been infiltrated 100% by his clique. There might be a bunch of old-school hardliners in there thinking they are still fighting Kigal, but the reality is that the FDLR is a sort of poodle to Kagame: you can make it bark a little now and then if its expedient, but it will never bite. The FDLR are also an immense source of intel to Kigali, as they have many alliances with Congolese groups, and like said, are fully infiltrated by Kagame's intel apparatus

For sure, the FDLR can cooperate with Bosco. They don't have necessarily something against Congolese Tutsis : witness years of peaceful coexistence with the Banyamulenge and cordial relations with the FRF in South Kivu. Their main issue has always been first and foremost the Kagama regime, not Tutsis as such (they are not the FNL!)

Anonymous said...

That is interesting to hear how the FDLR has transitioned over the years.

However, what struck me more about the supposed FDLR-Bosco alliance was not the Kigali connection, but more so the fact that Sheka's group was already working with Bosco. I know that Sheka was previousy allied with FDLR anyways but after Sadiki's assasination I suppose I didn't see such an alliance happening again so soon.

I guess the FDLR now, business is business

@BradLehigh

Anonymous said...

Continued.....

The face-off between FRDC and remaining Bosco's escorts in Goma got finalized peacefully yesterday at around 16h00.
The escorts were disarmed and there was no problem - Thank God.

Bosco and Baudouin are now sitting and thinking how this scandals have started and curse the one who advised them to do so.

A piece of question;
Why Julien Paluku was chosen to announce this decision of the Government to arrest Bosco?
Why not the spokesman or JK or some one from the army?
Do not you see something behind the screen?

Many Congolese are angry at MONUSCO for not playing much role to protect civilians - They have done almost nothing!

CHURUCHURU

blaise said...

@ Anonym MAY 2, 2012 11:12 PM,
I read that article and a little more @ the mushaki papers, my takes is that there is more speculations than information there. If people are wrong and this particular blogger is talking for all Tutsis, he should at least give us facts or insight in ,let's say , Bosco's mind.
Like some people, I don't think it will be extraordinary for the FDLR to cooperate with Rwanda for a couple reasons:
- this group his not as homogeneous as people painted it ( a lot of factions like the Mai-mai forces)
- Rwanda is not exclusively a Tutsis monolithic society. There are hutus as well working for the regime.
Facts on the ground suggested in my opinion that there is some collusion between the two factions:
- the FDLR mined goods that transited to Kigali
- the RPF can assassinate people in South Africa or Norway but had extraordinary hard time to infiltrate the East and target FDLR top dogs.
- The FDLR is more a threat to congolese than Rwandese. There was even allegation that people who were repatriated to Rwanda was sent back to continue the insurrection.
That just speculation from me. Maybe the people on the ground can inform us better( no propaganda, please, I don't think Rwanda is stupid enough to believe allegedly cheap tricks from Kinshasa).

Anand said...

@Anon May 3, 3:10am - Yeah. I am not saying I don't agree that alliances are possible. Just exploring the dynamic behind it and the shifting constructs of FDLR over the past several years. Thanks for your feedback. Thanks everyone for the perspective on FDLR today.

@Churuchuru - Thanks for the update on Goma. Glad to hear that standoff ended peacefully.

FrancoPepeKalle said...

FDLR is a total ally to Kagame so what is their problem with Kagame.

Rich said...

Just wanted to say we've got to be a bit more careful when dealing the the term fdlr.

Now it is almost common belief that fdlr is associated to genocide, rape, illegal mining and negative force sustaining instability in the great lakes region. lauded with these bad endeavors it is easy for any one to couple the term fdlr with his worse enemy to attrack the word's sympathy.

rwanda has played that game very well in disqualifying opponents to the kagame's reign. DRC government has also played that game very well to cover up abuses committed by its own armed forces... the same thing was done to find an excuse for the almost endemic symptom of male violence against women in DRC... the list can go on and on and on...

Now, let's remind ourselves that there are rwandan with genuine grievances against the government in their country but since kagame is not open to the idea of democracy, the easiest thing to do to disqualify his opponents is to label them as fdlr... Victoire Ingabire is the latest case of its kind...

Now, what we have here is a situation where the term fdlr is again wrongly or rightly used to further discredit bosco and whatever he's up to these days.

fdlr is every one's enemy and no one's friend therefore one needs to be able to disentangle good and bad actors among those opposed to rwanda in order to help others know who they are blaming or associating to bosco or indeed sheka, mai mai etc...

In my opinion, sheka, fdlr, mai mai bad elements of the FARDC, the approch taken by kigali to maintain chaos in DRC are just as bad as the fdlr (genocider, rapist of congolese women etc...) and they should all be clearly and individually identified and made accountable for all their wrong doings.

Rich

Rich said...

PPRD says NO to the idea of handing bosco over to the ICC...

http://radiookapi.net/actualite/2012/05/03/rdc-le-pprd-soppose-au-transfert-de-bosco-ntaganda-la-cpi/

Rich

Anonymous said...

The machine is at work. The plan has been prepared and submitted to rwanda.
Bosco will be "arrested" because he is responsible of troubles (Paluku) but he won't be sent to CPI (PPRD).

Etumba met yesterday with Kayonga to confirm this and the next phase. http://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/index.php?i=14982&a=53244

Bosco will be another Nkunda, kept in the drawer to prevent he sais too much.

Let's pray that the international community will finally use some points to leverage this situation, I hope they won't trade justice and peace ( closing an eye on this other debacle) for economic development (support at matata ponyo's gov).

Once again it is another lost chance for both congolese authority and the international community to male a step toward peace.

Anonymous said...

Rwanda, DRC military chiefs meet over clashes

http://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/index.php?i=14982&a=53244

That is why you see every thing cool down after their meeting.

Rwanda was, is , will (be) playing a key role in the east.
Not a shame to Congolese leaders or not a proud to Rwanda, it is just a everything for both.

CHURUCHURU

Jason Stearns said...

@Churuchuru and Anon: Interesting indeed - but I hear this morning that Col Makenga defected to join Bosco, which would cast a different light on that meeting in Gisenyi. If true, would represent important development in the mutiny. A suivre.

Anonymous said...

All that Congo siasa and BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17994753 see in their own small minds is "tutsi", their deep hate is shown in the way they report, Jason Stearns and Thomas Hubert are in fact the new faces of RTLM!!!!

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