According to various reports, Col Sultani Makenga joined the CNDP mutiny during the night. This is a significant development, since Makenga was the second highest ranking CNDP officer behind Bosco in the Amani Leo structure as the deputy commander of South Kivu. If confirmed, it will bring a new élan to the mutiny, which had been rocked over the last week by the massive deployment of army troops and attacks on various fronts.
The question then arises: Why would a commander join a rebellion that seems on its last legs? Either it is not on its last legs, there is support that will be forthcoming soon, or Makenga was afraid of being arrested himself. A little bit of all three may be the case; certainly Makenga had already been fingered by the Congolese intelligence service as having been involved in the planning of the mutiny in the first place.
Will other CNDP commanders, such as Col Faustin Muhindo (in Goma) and Col Claude Micho (in Bukavu) now follow? Micho, for example, was recently ordered to reduce his rather large bodyguard; he refused.
The defection comes just hours after a meeting in Gisenyi, Rwanda between the army chiefs of the two countries, Gen. Didier Etumba and Gen. Charles Kayonga. The Rwandan press reported the meeting to be a success. I am sure other interpretations will follow.
Friday, May 4, 2012
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53 comments:
Jason - What is the official line from Rwanda as to why they would be involved in these talks at all? I know there are many obvious reasons they would be involved, but these all seem to relate to non public or under the table type of connections. This meeting seems to be very publicized.
It's really sad that we keep coming back to case one over and over again.
I believe that the CNDP should realize that they are keeping the region hostage. People are suffering folks! They had the money and the political cloud, can't they use their resources to change the KIVUS' landscape? All that monolithic view of things will just bring more death. I guess those who are profiting from this mafia can't let go easily. Let's identify them.
It's obvious to me that the government has been handling the whole mess poorly. They don't think hard enough to take away those pretexts. I think it's normal for a soldier to defect if his pairs makes him feel that he doesn't belong and he is a traitor. It's psychological. The EMS should have anticipate this problem. I don't think the guy had the intention to defect in the first place. But probably with those finger pointing, I won't feel secure myself. It's happened before:
- japanese americans in ww2
- Balkars, Crimean Tartars, Karachi, Kalmyks, Meskhetians
All said, the main question still remain : is Joseph Kabila interested in peace or not? Yet again, his acts contradict his words.
Well a lot should change over this weekend as its not reported that FARDC are right over the hill from Bosco's farm in Mushaki
@BradLehigh
Sorry, *now, not "not"
It IS reported that FARDC are right over the hill
@ Brad Lehigh
It remains to be seen if things will really change is Bosco is captured. It seems a bit simplistic to assume that all other problems will be resolved once (and if) Bosco is removed from the scene.
I start to believe that Bosco was just a pretext for the CNDP to rebel. Some of them believes that Bosco betrayed Nkunda. Beside, he had several of their commanders kill. So, just a pretext is my take.
@Blaise. it's really unfortunate and sad to see this kind of comments.I'm sure you called yourself as "Spécialité du Congo". When you say that the CNDP is keeping the region hostage and when you call CNDP's grievances as pretexts.The whole mess started in January 2009.Off course JK don't want peace it was clear at time with he prefer to "talk and negotiate" with fake CNDP.it was a comedy.The Government of Congo and all folks (specialists, NGO, HRW, UN group of experts) were only interested by the integration and deploy CNDP officers outside of North Kivu while ignoring the political aspect.Now again things will be handle in the same way and the problem will remain the same.
This does not shock me a bit. What you are seeing is Kanambe's government going down. Kanambe is losing his government let alone his army. His army is all full of Tutsis ready to betray whenever they want. Bosco is another Nknunda, a traitor who will operate however he wants to. It is sad but not surprising. I was hoping Kanambe would show leadership but he has not. Kanambe is just doing a PR stunt right now. As I said, the only way Congo will ever get back its credibility is when Kanambe leaves and Tshisekedi becomes the president.
not to go off topic, but it is amazing to me that the region's real powers (which doesn't include Rwanda) tolerate all this crap.
given the de jure embargo of the congo's minerals, how lucrative could it really be to get into the smuggling racket that props up these so called "power networks" (stearns is being really generous here, i much more prefer the world mafia)?
are tanzania, uganda, and angola that frightented of more refugees? isn't it in their interests to see a stable congo?
it just doesn't make sense to me that the region's powers allow rwanda and congo to continue to play this stupid game and begin to finally resolve the whole tutsi question that feeds this problem.
i realize analysts believe the problem is compounded by things like land conclict and such but it really is beginning to feel like the REAL issue here is overwhelming and burning hatred for tutsi's among the congolese.
it seems to fuel everything in the great lakes so, to a degree, it is why i support the effort to clean up these "power networks".
i hate to simplify all this but this "rebellion" is really getting annoying.
all the rebels in east congo need to be presented with a cold and harsh choice: either you declare complete and total alliagence to the state or you die.
these self-serving pigs don't understand anything but violence, thuggery, and force so they need to do then like we americans did to southerners after the civil war: take their lands, free their slaves, bar them from political and military office, and present that "you are with us or you die" choice.
sorry to be the american cowboy on the thread but, again, this whole thing is so incredibly pointless and stupid.
and, mind you, i'm a jew so I get the tutsi's worldview.
its just time to start treating these folks like criminals and rebels because that is indeed what they are.
jose
@ At Anonym MAY 4, 2012 8:19 AM,
I agree with you, it's really unfortunate and sad to see this kind of comments.
If you want to contradict me, choose to do so with arguments, I will have more respect for you in that regard.
I don't pretend to be a specialist of Congo, I leave this honor to you. I voice my opinion as the article 23 of our constitution give me power to do.
That said, to elaborate on my " blasphemy", you should know that the CNDP doesn't have the monopoly of grievances. The difference with the rest of us is that we don't take arms against our country and provoked misery among some poor peasants. In my book, is taking people hostage: you do our way or else...
We all got grievances against Kabila, you guys bullied people to vote for him, you never heard that who sups with the devil should have a long spoon? Jk fooled you guys, nobody's feeling sorry for you.
I said Bosco was the pretext because:
- it started with him cornered
- soldiers started to follow his orders
- now we are hearing that the CNDP has grievances.
How do you call that?
If I follow your thinking, every provinces should have a local army, made up of local. It's even better if mono ethnic. That's a pathetic way of thinking. When you enlist in the army, they send you whenever it please them.
Jk fooled you? Well, take a number in the queue.
Where all these ways of protesting are getting you? I believe that you should band together and develop your region, you should look for economic power, it's the only true power. Money talks. Look across the lake, stop whining.
@jose
Well your comments are not off base, I feel that Kanambe needs to go. Enough of this loser. Kabila has not shown leadership for a while. This fool needs to go. Tshisekedi is the president of Congo and he has some leadership that Kanambe has never had.
Which CNDP’s grievances? See how Tutsi are overrepresented in the Congolese army and administration:
01 Général Jean BIVEGETE Auditeur Général de l'armée
02 Général MASUNZU Cmd 10ème Région militaire/Bukavu
03 Général MALICK KIJEGE Inspecteur Général de l'Armée /KINSHASA
04 Général OBED RWIBASIRA Cmd 5ème Région militaire à Kananga/Kasaï-Occidental
05 Général MUSTAPHA MUKIZA Cmd Base militaire de KITONA (Bas-Congo)
06 Général Charles BISENGIMANA Inspecteur Général de La Police Nationale/Kinshasa
07 Général JEROME GAGAKWAVU EMG/FARDC-Kinshasa
08 Général BOSCO NTAGANDA
09 Général Laurent NKUNDA
10 Colonel BONANE Cmd 4ème Brigade Ituri
11 Colonel MAKENGA SULTANI
12 Colonel KAMANZI François
13 Colonel MUNYARUGERERO Françoise Cmd de la Police de l'enfance/Nord-Kivu
14 Colonel MUHINDO François
15 Colonel François ZERO BRAVO
16 Colonel MUTEBUTSI Jules
17 Colonel RORIMBERE
18 Colonel GISHONDO ELIE
19 Colonel PADIRI Jonas
20 Colonel BOLINGO MATANE
21 Colonel BIRORI Benjamin
22 Colonel BOSOGO Venant
23 Colonel WILSON
24 Lt Colonel MUNYAKAZI
25 Lt Colonel Claude MUCHO
26 Lt Colonel INNOCENT
27 Lt Colonel KABUNDI
28 Lt Colonel BISAMAZA
29 Lt Colonel NIYIBIZI
Add to this list more than 300 captains.
Add also several civilians who are in other institutions and in the Public Service. Here are a sample:
Senateurs Moïse Nyarugabo and Edouard Mwanga CHUCHU (they were elected by Non-tutsi Congolese Provincial Deputies : this shows how congolese people like Tutsi)
Déo RUGWIZA MAGERA (the powerful CEO of all Congo Revenue : ADG des Douanes), Jean-Jacques RUHARA : Directeur de l'Autorité de Régulation des Télécommunications/ Kinshasa ; Albert SEMANA : Directeur de la Sécurité MATADI/Bas-Congo ; Léon MUHETO : Directeur à la SNEL et Administrateur de la REGIDESO/Kinshasa, RWIYEREKA Pancrace, Pierrot KAMBANDA, RUCOGOZA, GATAMBIYE ISSA, Damas NDAGIJIMANA, Alphonse SEBANANIRA
Questions:
1)Which other tribe in Kivu has such big number of generals?
2)In the ICC arrest warrant, Bosco Ntaganga is CLEARLY identified as Rwandan Citizen. It is publicly known that there are other many Rwanda intelligence and military officers within FARDC. Monuc knows this. Unlike Nkunda who is a Congolese by birth, Ntaganda is Rwandese. This shows you how FARDC soldiers in Kivu feel: they are frustrated by Rwanda’s arrogant interference in the Congolese army.
Congolese Tutsi people have always lived peacefully with other Congolese since 1959 until 1994 when Fdlr came to Congo. Congolese Tutsi refugees who are in Rwanda refugee camps will come back when Fdlr is completely crushed. The big problem in Masisi today is the way CNDP soldiers (Congolese and Rwandese) grab lands from Congolese Hunde and Congolese Hutus. Even if Ntaganda is arrested, this land problem will remain. In Masisi, the problem is land grabbing by Cndp mafia! Currently, most of the big ranches in Masisi are owned by military high ranking officers from neighboring countries. The Cndp soldiers are just the ranch’s caretakers. That is why they refuse to deploy elsewhere than in Masisi. So Masisi’s problems are only about land.
@jose
"these self-serving pigs don't understand anything but violence, thuggery, and force so they need to do then like we americans did to southerners after the civil war: take their lands, free their slaves, bar them from political and military office, and present that "you are with us or you die" choice. "
i wonder in which category Kinshasa and most of the FARDC ( which ARE the state ) fall for you in this equation !? For a long time in DRC you had only the choice between two nasty diseases... there is no good white knight in shining armor you can give the country too. It may be frustrating but its a reality that none of the choices available in this whole clown-show is any better then the other. To believe that JK, if he only would be let by the "bad bad" rebels, would fix the country is naive...the same applies in my opinion to the arrest of Bosco. I doubt that the Kivus will become a paradise. I think the international community has to understand that they fed far too long a powernetwork that now acts like a cancer and rewards bully behavior in any aspect of society. It seems that is a possible element that everyone on the policy, aid and political side seems to ignore.
@FrancoPepeKalle
I have good and bad news for you;
Bad news - Your dream will never come true.
Good News - Your Tshisekedi will never be a president.
CHURUCHURU
Hi All,
Another meeting in KIGALI.
Rwandan troops going back to DRC...
Find below the link;
http://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/index.php?i=14983&a=53295
Things are boiling faster.
CHURUCHURU
Just saw that, what is the hidden agenda with CNDP? Come and correct rebels? Bring Bosco to Rwanda?
andrea
@ Churuchuru
interesting link. Seems to me that there was some horses trading here. You should read Kagame's interview " you can't build democracy on the sand" ,very entertaining.
Hidden agenda? possible. Bosco's getaway. It's remarkable that they are talking about Rwanda's involvement just when the FARDC are close to Bosco's farm.( My reading/speculation).
@ Marc Hofer,
I agree that it's hard to chose between Charybdis and Scylla but one should never do the biding of a foreign country.
I believe that the CNDP's fight will have more legitimacy if they position themselves as protectors of the people, not just their people, and if they morph to a force of change(economic power). People don;t care how you look like as long as you protect them and give them hope.
I always wonder why the FDLR is still in the region beside the fact that the CNDP had a presence all over the Kivus.
http://www.wat.tv/video/enfants-perdues-kinshasa-1iuoi_2exyh_.html
@blaise:
"I always wonder why the FDLR is still in the region beside the fact that the CNDP had a presence all over the Kivus."
Because they alos became part of the bigger power network. They are needed to keep the machine running as it is. I dont think the CNDP or any other group in the region, sees the point of putting them up for some bigger role as they have right now. Everyone is chasing its own interest and as long as the status quo is there, its good for everyone. It only starts to become a problem if Kinshasa starts to "mess things up". But i dont see Kinshasa doing it for the "greater good". They do it cause they want something more for their side of the power network and for their part they do it quite clumsy.
Take anything newtimes writes with a grain of salt.
Remember it was less than a week ago that they reported the refugees crossing from goma to gisenyi were fleeing FDLR and LRA fighting (lra!?!?) and not cndp/fardc fighting. It's simply not a good publication.
@papa
i feel you, man. but, as churuchuru is saying, its just never going to be and i strongly believe ya tshisi supporters should start thinking about elections the provincial level and building a wider party. why? that’s what democrats in america did in 2004- when al gore’s victory was stolen by the supreme court (sorry, but it was), bush nearly destroyed the country and its institutions, but dems worked hard, took back the congress and state governments in 2006, and clinched victory in 2008 by making history with obama.
sure, i realize the congolese opposition do not have a obama-like, inspiring figure. but YOU NEED to find a few, groom them at the local level, build a nationwide infrastructure (UDPS cannot just be in the kasai’s), and run them in 2016.
but ET is done friend and its time to re-strategize. the opposition in the congo must stop sulking about their losses and how “hard” it is to make headway in what is an autocratic state.
it is GOING TO BE HARD but, as with all people, i have confidence the opposition will figure out how to win.
now is the time to organize, organize, organize, organize, organize........
@marc
where i believe we agree is a culture in the congo that rewards mafia behavior and the international community’s tacit support for it- though i actually believe that the IC don’t actually understand how power truly functions in the congo because analysts have been so focused on its symptoms(war, rebellion, corruption, state collapse, etc). in otherwards, the IC kinda/sorta gets that congolese political culture has some real problems but NOONE has studied, in real depth, why this is the case and that’s why we see such dumb policy from the west.
but i’m digressing....the point is that the IC has recognized the Kabila regime as sovereign...end of story. as such, i agree with blaise here. while kabila completely sucks, he is not dumb and is in the process of check-mating kagame. he has had to accept all this external influence given his army was so weak, divided, and unprofessional after years of fighting and decay under Mobutu. well, that is slowly beginning to change given training up of battalions by the south africans, belgians, and americans. i’m not sure what general ham said to kabila but i’m pretty sure, given ham’s history, that he told this autocrat (as he has told others in his past) who rules in an unstable land to begin to show authority given improvements with the army and police.
we all tend to forget that the bulk of security reform up to this point has been NEW and more PROFESSIONAL troops trained by others. yes, more is needed but that’s been the absolute goal of kinshasa. well, its starting to bear fruit, kabila knows this, and so too does kigali.
so, sure, we need a less mafioso political environment in the congo but, that doesn’t mean its sovereign government shouldn’t do what it needs to do to assert total and complete authority over this lawless region SO AS to checkmate Rwanda. the tutsi’s out east (and the hutu) need to understand who is in charge and fully accept this- no compromises.
once that happens than we can get to their real and understandable grievances about land, citizenship, re-socializing the young men in the region who see joining a militia as the ticket to the good life, and other matters.
bosco is a “compromise” and, as such, getting rid of him will allow the congo to get to these other issues.
jose
@Papa
Your concerns are well taken, brother. But I broadly agree with, Jose. It is time for the opposition to give up the ghost and start planning to retake- or atleast decisively shift- power in the Congo via organizing real hard for the provincial elections and, by doing so, setting themselves up for the 2015 national elections.
This current strategy of not talking to ambassadors, kicking out party members who take government ministries jobs or their seats in the Assembly, passing manifestos that read highly treasoness to authorities, and other tactics does not help their cause. It makes them look like angry children who did not get their way and gives no one confidence that- if one day given power- that they will not govern with maturity and seriousness.
Indeed, it gives Kabila and donors the right to say "the opposition are divided and weak and not serious. Why should I give them the opportunity to govern when we have very real problems?"
Now, the good news is that it is entirely within their ability to take the majority of provincial governments in those elections. And, if they do, this may lead to having more Senators than the majority and if that occurs this puts an effective “check” on Kabila and the regime. The rule of law, Etienne’s and the opposition’s main cause, does not evolve in a vacuum. It requires both strong institutions- like the Senate- and conflict. Given Kabila is able to dismiss Provincial governors- but not legislatures- this gives the opposition a real opening. But, if the opposition continues to fight a losing fight over the November 11’ elections they will miss this opening.
The Congolese need the opposition to be smart- not angry.
The main challenge, as I see it, for the opposition is the lack of internal democracy in political parties and the weak and divided nature of Congolese civil society. Both stem from the autocratic nature of the Congo’s political culture and a “newness” to democratic culture but it is critical that the opposition UNITE and engage Congolese civil society. I’m not sure what the strategy should be but there are many opportunities:
- Have not unions in the Congo been striking for better pay? What would an alliance with the opposition look like with unions that strengthen them and the opposition?
- Have not students demonstrated about conditions at UKin? ULum? UKisangani? What would an alliance with students- always the vanguard of change- look like?
- Have not artisanal miners been shafted by big mining companies? What does an alliance look like with them?
-Have not the business community complained at length about corruption, arbitrary taxes, and other issues?
It is so important that the opposition really begin to figure out both what is required to increase trust among themselves, civil society, and others so as to build long term power together to confront the regime and build a better Congo for everyone.
The key to doing this, however, is to strategize and to build truly mass parties throughout the Congo. Building mass parties requires internal democracy.
Why has Etienne- or others- not called for a Convention to elect new officers and create a platform? Could it be that they do not want to be kicked out of their positions? Are they afraid that there might be others who can earn the allegiance of party activists/militants?
If UDPS and others are serious about national democracy, than they need to be serious about democracy within their parties.
You cannot build a mass movement to defeat Kabila without getting everyone involved and that requires giving them the right to choose who in the party will lead them via internal party democracy, forming alliances with key civil society organizations, and a strategy to take provincial governments and thus the Senate.
- D
@ d.,
That's exactly the bottom line. I hope somebody in the opposition will realize just that. I think they should create job opportunities for their members in order to broader their financial supports. They need networking as well. There is so much to be done!
@ d.
You are right, it is very unlikely that we will have a new president but what the opposition like UPDS need to do is find a organization with other parties and unite and find a way to get power when it comes to the 2015 elections so Kabila can leave. Jose is right, Congolese around the world including myself need to unite and find a way to get Congo back on track so we will have a strong country.
And if the problem was that we Congolese are TOO peaceful ? Organized AND armed, do you think that the IC could continue to despise us as they do ?
It is truly amazing that Etienne continues to hold forth and issue these fatwas from Limete. When Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan- which began 8 long years of conservative hell for Americans of which we are STILL recovering from- the Democratic Party didn’t make him its head. It dispensed him to his farm in Georgia and said “have a good life”- which he has. When Al Gore’s election was stolen by the Reagan/Bush I appointed Supreme Court did Al become the Democratic Party head? NO. Like Jimmy, he was sent home to his ranch in Tennessee and told to “have a good life”- which he has as well. Why is Etienne allowed to lead anything? He FAILED. I repeat: HE FAILED. Congolese democracy, for all its many problems, does NOT belong to ONE man. It belongs to THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE. If Etienne truly loved his people, he would step down and allow others to step up. He would call for party elections and conventions to bring in NEW leadership and new IDEAS. But no. He keeps holding back democratic progress in the Congo because of his savior-complex. I recognize the election was stolen. Well, that’s too bad and it happens pretty regularly in all kinds of democratic states. Either its stolen on the cheap by ballot stuffing (Congo) or its stolen on the rich by corporate money (America). Either way, elections are rarely, if ever, fair. UDPS and the opposition need to get a GRIP ON REALITY, learn the central lesson of their failure (they did not unite) and begin to organize for 2013 and 2015. Anything short of this, and the opposition will FAIL again. Stop complaining and start organizing. NOW. Not 6 months before an election but NOW. The international community does NOT care that Kabila cheated. From their viewpoint, that’s what African autocrats do: THEY CHEAT, LIE, and STEAL. The opposition must stop HOPING for the international community to right this wrong and start organizing RIGHT NOW. The international community WILL NOT ride in on a white horse to save the Congolese from themselves just like they could care less that Bashir is SLAUGHTERING his own people like cattle or the Chinese jailing hundreds of thousands of dissidents. Why? They just need access to the minerals as they just need access to the oil and cheap Chinese labor. They only care about the $$$$$$.
STOP WAITING, STOP COMPLAINING, TOSS ETIENNE TO THE CURB, AND START ORGANIZING.
NOW!!!!
carpe diem
While this may seem obvious to write, I really think it isn't very appropropriate to compare Congolese democracy to American democracy.
When we Americans lit the flame of revolution in Boston, hundreds of years ago, in protest of an English King (or really a German one), the central rallying cry was freedom against tyranny. But for the early colonists to get to this point psychologically, they had to first come to believe a truly odd notion- that the right to govern rests entirely on the consent of the governed.
The American people have had nearly 300 years to engage in the democratic experiment. As everyone knows, it didn't begin to well, nearly 3/4th of its people didn't even have the franchise, and it took a violent civil war, equally violent union activity, a peaceful but determined civil rights movement, and over a century of Supreme Court decisions to perfect the idea, spoken so long ago by one of humanity's greatest leaders- Abe Lincoln- to a government "of the people, by the people, and for the people".
And we still aren't there yet....
That said, the Congolese have had less than 7 years to experiment with democracy. (or 20, if you count the opening of the SNC). It should surprise noone that the path hasn't been smooth or that the Congolese have come to see that their democracy is, in fact, theirs.
Yes, their political system is so unrelentingly corrupt. Yes, their opposition and political parties are not sufficiently internally democratic. Yes, we have impunity and the lack of the rule of law. Yes, the institution of the Presidency has too much power over the Legislative and Judicial branches. And yes, Congolese civil society is often non-existent, provinicial, divided, and lacks national reach.
All this is true.
But what is also true and what I will argue is that the trajectory, by and large, looks very promising. As has been the case in many African countries, a botched election tends to really focus a society on making sure an enabling enviroment is created for subsequent ones. I highly doubt we will see the level of opposition divison and electoral incompetence- whether it was willful or not- in future Congolese elections.
Perhaps more importantly, the Congolese themselves are increasingly aware that the right to govern rests with their consent. This is a major and critically important pyschological shift- as it was for Americans so many years ago-and it will bear fruit in years to come.
As hard as it is to stare down what so often seems like the black hole of the Congo, we must have hope. The Congolese have so much of it and, in spite of their difficulties, encourage their young to see their troubled country as theirs for the re-making. I have seen this numerous times in my visits to this vibrant nation over many very difficult years.
Kabila and his clique believed they were securing their positions by engaging in such brazen electoral theft. Like so many autocrats, he in fact secured his regime's- and the system that buttresses it- extinction.
The future of Congolese democracy is a bright one.
We just need to look hard to see it and, for those of us of good will in the West, hold our governments accountable to further it along.
Bryce
Senior Minister
Decatur Baptist Church
Decatur, GA
@ Bryce.,
U forgot 1960 till 1965 before the coup. That was even better than the. Cns!
Once the opposition organizes...what will prevent Ngoy Mulunda from naming MP's of his choosing? and proclaim Kabila the winner of a third term???
All this talk of unity is rubish.... even if we go by Ngoy Mulunda numbers Tshisekedi would have not won and Kabila would have had a magic 50.95%.
It seems we are blaming the victims (opposition) than we are willing to put blame on the perpetrators.... what can we expect from cheaters??? That all of a sudden they start caring and finding solutions for the country? T
Oraganized unarmed people fighting for liberty have lost in front of armed brutes. Do you think that the US and al could send an Ocampo clone to France to help Sarkozy cling to power after he has lost the election ? No way. The guy would have been cut to pieces the minute he put his foot in France with such a mission.
Do you think that a liar could give totally fake figures about elections in the UK in front of US and al ambassadors and under the control of those ? Really ? This is what they did in the Congo though. You have to realize that the US and al do not respect anything but might.
@blaise ,Jose and all
we need to start calling things what they are, the so called CNDP,RCD GOMA,RCL ML.....are all cover names for the Rwandan KAGAME and his criminal networks .all the so called mutineers and deserters are all Rwandan soldiers who infiltrated the FRDC. there is no possible political solution to this and never they will be.the only solution to this will be military.the DRC has to build its army and confront KAGAME . the KAGAME regime thinks a stable DRC that attract investors is a treat to their little impoverished nation(RWANDA),they think in order for them(RWANDA)to develop,their big rich next door neighbor (DR CONGO) has to be destroyed. BOSCO,NKUNDA,THOMAS LUBANGA,The CNDP,RCD GOMA.... are just tools that the KAGAME regime has been using to carryout its plan of destroying the DRC. whoever thinks that they can be a negotiating solution to this is just dreaming. the DRC needs to beet up its military and confront the KAGAME regime in order to bring peace to its people.if KABILA cant deliver on this ,sooner or later someone will.i don't like coups but some time it's the only way to bring change.i think KABILA senior understood that a negotiating solution was not possible with the KAGAME regime and think JK is learning this a very hard way. the KAGAME regime will stop at nothing in their quest to destroy the great lake region until someone stops them.
@ Congoman
I salute your analysis which is very clever. I would simply highlight the fact that Joseph Kabila has no interest in putting an end to this situation. The turmoil in East Congo benefits Joseph Kabila, remember that Bosco helped Kabila during the last parody of elections. Power must change hands in Kinshasa, this is on its way as the humiliation has reached its pick
I just believe that we need to gather financial might in order to control the military. Our army is full of mercenaries, they go with the higher bidder. Maybe if the people take care of their military they will be motivate to help the people. Just a thought. What u think?
@Congoman
I couldn't disagree with you more. I really don't see how a confrontation with Rwanda serves anyone least of all the Congolese.
At the core of the problem in the eastern region is the inability for the Hutu and Tutsi to live together. Sure, there are other challenges but this is the MAIN challenge that, to a degree, feeds all the others.
Until that central challenges is adequetly resolved there will never be peace in the region. I'm fairly certain everyone knows that but few seem willing to muster the political will to get to real and lasting peace between these two groups.
I just don't believe Rwanda is so blood-thirsty for, I dunno, Congolese minerals, land, and women that it engages as it does with the Congo.
That's just too simplistic and the regime is too smart for so crass of a reason for all the meddling we see.
I've always thought that Kigali is divided between the "modernists" and the "militarists". The latter are alot like Israelis with a 'never again' mentality that, at its worst, leads to visions of empire. The former seem to simply want to make Rwanda economically powerful so as to heal divisions. Kagame needs the latter to maintain power and it just so happens this group gets rich off of Congolese mineral theft and smuggling and Congo's general weakness. Many of those are Hutu and he can't just dismiss them for their corruption because that could unravel the whole regime.
So, again, we need to get Rwanda and Burundi to a place where Hutu and Tutsi can live in real peace.
And that's going to require some hard diplomacy from all the great powers in the region...not confrontation.
Mel
@Congoman
I agree with you on almost everything. We need a new president. Hypolite Kanambe alais Joseph Kabila will benefit from the fact that 1 million women in East Congo are being raped every day, children are being slaved into making coltan, and soldiers are being beaten. This helps Kabila have more money.
Kabila needs to leave if you want to even discusss about developing Congo.
Aww yes. What would a site about Congo be like without your occasional Congolese birther?
h/t FracoPepeKalle
@d
quick correction friend. so, the constitutional changes made last year gave kabila two additional powers over the provinces.
a) he can dismiss governors (which you note)
b) he can dismiss the entire assemblies
you stated that "b" wasn't an option and, unfortunately, it is. :(
now, that doesn't mean the opposition should not try, as one tactic of a broader strategy, to take provincial assemblies so as to try to get a majority of Senators in the national assembly.
indeed, kabila likely was looking ahead when he made this change as a means of saying "checkmate" to the opposition if they tried this approach at clipping his power.
personally, i think institutional means at change have been exhausted at this point. i'd personally contribute alot of money to supporting strikes in the mining industry and public services as a means of deepening social ties- and increasing confidence- among the congolese. kabila's true power, in my opinion, is his ability to get keep the mafia network- more popularly known as the congolese government- greased with $$$.
what happens if miners and public workers simply stop working? food stops arriving from the countrysides?
honestly, I'd pay a cool $1 million for bright activists in the unions, student unions, and others to spend the next few months on the Obama campaign learning the nuts and bolts of organizing from the folks who are the best organizers in the world.
it would pay dividends to congolese democracy I believe.
jose
@mel Great comment, I perfectly agree with you and I would like to add a couple fo things:
- the problem of a proper nation-building in the region is still unsolved
- the IC should redefine his "agenda for peace" in the region. It seems to me that donors aren't using the same approach with Rwanda and DRC. If for the first economic development is the justification on donor's agenda the latter has to present clear records of human rights and democracy.
News from Goma;
The Governor of North Kivu has visited a camp where fresh refugees are located in Rwanda.
Here is the link;
http://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/index.php?i=14985&a=53319
A new baby was born with an open letter to JK (A true story - believe it or not)
Find the link below;
http://www.radiokivu1.com/info_passee/enfant_ne_avec_lettre_adressee_au_chef_etat_rdc_joseph_kabila_a-goma.htm
CHURUCHURU
@ Jose,
I think that although Jk has those two powers, it will be dangerous for him to use them lightly, specially if the assembly and the governors are popular among the people. I heard at one point they tried to destabilize Moise Katumbi, for example, and it wasn't pretty for them. If I was the opposition, I will try to go for the provincial anyway since the possibility of removing those two institutions are remote in my view specially if their acts are in the limit of legality.
As for the strike, it's a little hard to implement without financial support. People live in a day by day basis.The strikers will end up like the miners under Tatcher.
They may succeed, I think, if they organize something like a time bank : exchange of services.
Since the rebellion of CNDP soldiers, food price has soared. In Goma, the price of cassava, corn, potatoes, bananas, vegetable and other essential goods have all but doubled. New elected members of the parlement are pressing Primer Minister Matata to do his utmost to help North Kivu citiznes who are enduring this new ordeal. But once again, Kabila is sidestepping the new government. The Congolese delegation to the sensitive negotiations conducted in Rwanda was conducted by a guy from Katanga directly reporting to Kabila. One has to wonder why no delegates from North and/or South Kivu are associated to these sensitive talks. After all, they are the one who shoulder all the burden and sustain the casualities. Moreover master the dynamics of their provinces better than these Kabila delegates. But Kabila and Kagame do not trust these guys, opting for naive congolese delegates.
Another intruiging observation is the fact that the military operations have just been suspended when the rebels were in disarray. This suspension will give them time to regroup. I take here the risk to forecast the defeat of the two new FARDC battalions by the end of may. Time only will tell...
Check it out
https://docs.google.com/a/zadko.com/file/d/0B3GJKd5i8PncMzl0d3gwRnFHeG8/edit
@BradLehigh
Interesting link on the feelings of congolese
http://www.benilubero.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3142:le-depute-lusenge-bonane-udcf-denonce-la-complicite-de-kinshasa-dans-linsecurite-a-lest-de-la-rdc-&catid=16:vie-nationale&Itemid=99
To @BradLehigh,
my understanding is that Colonel Makenga Sultani is the new leader of the military wing of CNDP. Have they dismissed Ntaganda? They fault the congolese government for the failure rather than criticizing Terminator for the killings of innocents. No hope as far as peace is concerned
@anonymous 5:56 pm.
Funny you mention me in a weird way. BTW, I do have my own blog. Check it here won't you.
http://francopepekalleclassicambiance.blogspot.com/
a TIME BANK!!! love it. we did something like that at occupy wall street. then turned it into a "committee" in the general assembly of the occupy cell in zocotti park, lol.
yeah, strikes are hard- particularly for the congolese. but if folks partnered up with peasants who, instead of joining the strike, they "joined" by helping out with food, child care, etc, that would work.
jose
Here is our own Jason on RFI, la radio mondiale.
http://telechargement.rfi.fr.edgesuite.net/rfi/francais/audio/modules/actu/201205/INVITE_LONG_STEARNS_OK.mp3
Rich
@BradLehigh
Did you noticed the flag at the right? Are they getting nostalgic?
Idk what the guy from butembo is expecting from JK, really. If we all know that Kabila and some of his commanders are collaborating with the ennemy, why are the people not united to defeat this coallition. I think there is a lot of ways to disrupt their activities and bring to the light what is kept in the shadow. The people had to denounce and refuse anybody associate to this maffia. They need to kick those traitors out of there!
@ Jose,
I don't think the peasants will do anything unless there is something there for them. It will go down to a more sophisticate "troc" system : I provide services, you give me what you have or some like that. I think the greek people are doing some similar.
@ Blaise
"PRESS RELEASE n°011/ANC/CNDP/2012
Members of the Military High Command of the Congolese National Army (ANC) met in an extraordinary session this Sunday, May 6, 2012 in Rutshuru, Province of North Kivu. One single item was on the special meeting’s agenda: the evaluation of the peace process negotiated with the Government of the Republic in January 2009 at the Ihusi hotel in Goma leading to the January 16 Official Press Release and the Political Agreement March 23 of the same year.
In May 6, 2012 meeting in Rutshuru, the ANC Military High Command has assigned to the current leadership of the organization full responsibility for the failure in implementing the negotiated agreements with the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Consequently, from the date of this special meeting, the High Military Command of the ANC has decided the following:
1. The creation within the organization of a new entity called the March 23 Movement (M23 acronym) with the aim of reviving the dynamics of the provisions contained in the January 16 2009 Official Press Release as well as the March 23rd 2009 Political Agreement;
2. The appointment of Colonel Sultani MAKENGA as the Coordinator of the Movement of March 23rd;
3. The ANC Military High Command instructs all Senior officers, Deputy- officers, Junior Officers and corporals to work under the command of and report to Colonel Sultani MAKENGA.
Done in Rutshuru, May 6th, 2012
The Spokesman of the High Military Command of the ANC?CNDP
Lt Kazarana Vianney"
@Rich,
Is this means that BN has been officially replaced by SM. Looks like it was one of the option of the Poker Game that took place few weeks ago when JK was in the area. There are rumors that BN has been wounded and in Hospital in Rda (May be that was the planned exit strategy)
On the other, it seems that the situation is pretty serious and some "chasse a l'homme to the "T" have started again? True or False not sure?
Can we say that the division that we felt in the CNDP between pro-BN and pro-LN has been resolved with SM as the new Leader and reuniting everybody?
At the end of the day, I think CNDP will need to make a decision not to become a ping-pong ball and be tossed back and forth, between making peace with JK and commit to RDC and keeping ties with Rda, which get scarry when things turn south and Rda makes a deal with JK through IC pressure and they are left in the middle.
At the end of the day, the poker game has resulted with 7,000 displaced people and probably many casualities! Was it worth it, time will tell.
I was wondering if Rda, DRC, CNDP can seriously work on making a deal as follow:
* Dismantle FDLR at once and For good, and plan their return - This has been done before with the Mugunga Camp dismantlement.
* While FDLR returns to their Country, the resettlement of Congolese Refugees in DRC back to their land in Congo can be also done.
* Establish clean business partnerships for smooth trading between DRC and Rda where all the Entrepreneurs of both countries can prosper through various businesses and reinvest in their community to support the development of the whole region.
* CNDP will also need to show some good leadership in the peace building and development of the DRC. I strongly believe that JK, CNDP and Rda can come to an agreement that will build a peaceful Eastern Congo and work toward the developments of DRC. It is possible. After all, there are members of CNDP communities who have good relationship with JK and they can act as the mediator.
I think JK, CNDP and Rda should really get this: People are TIRED of this unending wars!
Anon 12:49 -
You are right, BN as a fuse that has just burnt and it seems SM is like the replacement fuse. however, the press release document has so many contradictions and keeps quiet on many of the recent developments on the ground... Why now?
BN's where about is a matter of so many speculation and the latest is in the update Jason posted on this blog today...
You are so right, JK, PK and CNDP should find a common ground. I think with the recent 'good results' by the FARDC on the theater, JK should be able to negociate from a much much better position hence, for instance, name a military top commander for the region who can be conciliatory with RDA yet remains completely loyal to KIN. That officer can be almost like a diplomatic figure who can wage both the stick and the carrot to culprits from both RDA's proteges and DRC loyals whilst keeping a good balance in keeping peace and allowing politics and civil society to get on with state building and the development of the region.
Rich
CNDP must fight intil the end
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