Painting by Cheri Samba

Lokuta eyaka na ascenseur, kasi vérité eyei na escalier mpe ekomi. Lies come up in the elevator; the truth takes the stairs but gets here eventually. - Koffi Olomide

Ésthetique eboma vélo. Aesthetics will kill a bicycle. - Felix Wazekwa

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

The politics of the fait accompli

As the M23 engages in urban warfare in Goma (the latest news is that they have taken the town) one wonders what their strategy could be. While unfolding of the M23 rebellion has involved a lot of shooting from the hip––from all sides, including Kigali, the M23, and Kinshasa––one would imagine that by now, a strategy would have coalesced. So what is it?

In the past, I have speculated that it will be difficult for the M23 to conquer and hold territory, mostly due to their lack of manpower, which started off at around 400-700 and is probably around 1,500-2,500 now. They have been able to rely on Rwandan (and, to a lesser degree, Ugandan) firepower for operations close to the border (in particular Bunagana and Rutshuru, allegedly also this recent offensive), the farther into the interior they get, they harder it will be to mask outside involvement.

Alliances with other groups­­––Sheka, Raia Mutomboki, FDC, etc.––have acted as force multipliers, but have been very fickle, as the surrender of Col Albert Kahasha last week proved. From this perspective, the M23 strategy could well be more to nettle the government, underscore its ineptitude, and hope that it will collapse from within.

However, the recent offensive on Goma has made me consider another, bolder alternative. If the rebels take Goma, thereby humiliating the UN and the Congolese army, they will present the international community with a fait accompli. Yes, it will shine a sharp light on Rwandan involvement, but Kigali has been undeterred by donor pressure thus far, and has been emboldened by its seat on the Security Council. Also, as the looting by the Congolese army and their distribution of weapons to youths in Goma has shown, the battle for Goma is as much of a PR disaster for Kinshasa as for Kigali.

In any case, at least in the short term, if Goma falls, donors––and probably the Congolese government––will have no choice but to deal with the rebels and call on Rwanda to help. Already, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has called on President Kagame to “use his influence on the M23 to help calm the situation and restrain M23 from continuing their attack."

This is the magical and perverse logic of the fait accompli. Of course, this assumes that donors do not change tack and permanently cut aid to Rwanda. But this would not only go against entrenched aid bureaucracies, but also antagonize the only government that can quickly bring an end to the conflict.

This is just speculation for now. And it leaves many questions in suspense. Such as: take Goma as a stepping stone for what? Genuine talks or as an interlude to a further push (as the M23 have suggested) toward Bukavu? Although a Congolese delegation has reportedly flown to Kampala to negotiate discretely, I still have a hard time envisioning a compromise between the two sides. Just try to imagine Sultani Makenga and Bosco Ntaganda integrated back into the army as generals and you will know what I mean.

Thoughts are welcome.


Unknown said...

Jason, everyone is shooting from the hip? Meaning it is aimless shootings allover?
Okay, you make interesting conclusions in support of Hege and co. that RDF and UPDF reinfornced M23 to capture border towns. I have skimmed through the 44-page report by these 'experts'but it is like they had a set of facts they went out just to prove. They say the fact that Gen. kayonga admitted that they have a brigade closer to the border confirms Rwanda's involvement as it is able to send troops across the border easily!, a litterny of wild allegations, they are eating UN money for nothing.
To be honest, I cant deny that Rwanda does have a hand in what is going on in Congo, but the report does not prove anything to that effect. It can easily be rebutted by an educated person with background in law and research.
Now: Today Goma has fallen. To be honest, I dont know why. What will M23 do with Goma my goodness, how will they co-habit with MONUSCO, how about residents? How will Rwanda survive all-round condemnation? Where next after here? It must be understood that M23 are brave strategists, at a time when the world and UN are focused on Gaza, they have made their move! And double standard, international community is supporting rebels in Syria, Kordofan and even Darfur! So, M23 also operates within the current context. UN should have a unified policy towards rebellions all over the world.

tresor said...

You need to ask what will Rwanda do with Goma? Any fool can see that it's Rwanda that has invaded Goma.The entire global media is saying that.As a congolese I am justing waiting for words from the international community because for now they are our only hope. As for the congolese government, that not a government. God please help us to get rid of Kabila.

June Sina said...

@Tresor,If I were you I would have myself as my only hope and not International community.The tendency of congolese always relying on others to solve their own probs is the cause of all this and hence probs for neighbours who try hard to be independent.Its time to look for yr own inner strengh

June Sina said...

@Jason-shooting from the hip including from kigali" really Jason you dont give up do you?Yr hate for kgl is beginning to look like an obsession.You yrself have admitted tht the FARDC army are weak and so is their Kinshasha govt,for this I wld imagine that y knw that any organised group of rebels wld easily bring them to their knees.But yr hate for kgl clouds yr judgement and y refuse to accept tht M23 have actually won the war and yr continue to involve Kigali.Wht is it thy you want Jaosn?

tresor said...

@Juna , I totaly agree with you. but i am speaking from the current situation, or let me say short term solution. but it's true that as congolese we need that type of arab spring mentality

Eole said...

@James and June Sina

Rwandan propaganda is at full gear here. Let me "congratulate you" for your victory in Goma. Once again Jason is the target because he is trying to relate facts. If you had relatives in Goma now, you would realize how truthfull Jason is. By the way, what's the point anymore? Kabila, Museveni and Kagame have been outstanding in this! For you and your leaders, killing innocent congolese for greed has become a flourishing business.You must be laughing as few years ago your armies destroyed Kisangani without any consequences.
But I have the feeling that very soon, this will come back to haunt you and your leaders. Now leave us alone and let us mourn our dead and our robbed land. Take ti

blaise said...

Pres Kabila answering on Goma

Can you please not generalize by saying " the tendency of all Congolese", sounds racist since you don't know all Congolese.

Unknown said...

Just a quick point on the term 'shooting from the hip', as I think Jason intends here, means to react in the spur of the moment, ie to make it up as you go along, rather than have a planned strategy. I don't think he's talking about how they are shooting literally!

Unknown said...

congolese behind the computors talkin none sense ..any idear what to do now?

Coen J H van Wyk said...

Talk in Kigali seems to be that Kagame, during his last visit to New York, cut a deal with the US that makes him think a rebellion like that of Nkunda could lead to the international community allowing another peace deal, which, as you will remember, saw Nkunda's troops act with Rwandan and FARDC troops to try to end the FDLR operations. Someone on FB was saying that Nkunda had been training the M23 men. All speculation and loose talk, but there is a perception in Rwanda and Uganda that they have the US behind them and so can do what they want. And after France snubbed Kabila at the Francophonie in Kinshasa, maybe they felt stronger?

What has to be remembered is the legitimate security concerns of Rwanda, and the Tutsi/Banyamulenge/Banyarwanda, as well as the potential positive role they could play in a proper economic development. Not that this would excuse genocide or economic exploitation, but it has to be kept in mind.

Unknown said...

So do you guys also count M23 as Congolese or Rwandans

Unknown said...

Rumour scares FARDC, M23 Goma
Interesting how Goma fell! M23 walked in without being challenged by anyone. Do you know why? a rumour had spread that rwandan special forces were nearby, sending FARDC dumping their uniforms, dispearing. It was a rumour that aided M23. Who to blame? those who kept peddling false rumours that Rwanda had sent 3000 troops into Congo. Paluku is also to blame for the fall fo Goma, his rumour demolised FARDC!
The fall of Goma should be seen in the context of FARDC weakness and not rwanda intervention. Kabarebe once said that FARDC cannot even kill a rat. He also said the whole thing that Congo is, is giantness of emptness.
Bukavu, here M23 comes!

concerned said...

Interesting to read all these posts. I have been wondering who all the different actors are, which are allies, as well as to understand their different goals and strategies.

There certainly seem to be a lot of moving parts.
Residents of EDRC
M23 (leader? Ntaganda?)
Nkunda, (allied with M23?)
Kabila, DRC forces
Kigame, Rwanda forces
Musevani, Uganda forces
UN forces
US goal/strategy
Mai-Mai: Raia Mutomboki and Kifuafua
Others' (of course)
I can see a lot more to this blog below and will keep reading the blog and comments. Thank you.

blaise said...

Poor James S, so much anger and hatred,finding happiness in others grief.So much bitterness. What did those guys did to you?Are you talking to somebody?
How a two days battle can be summarize in a root without a fight?
You guys should have learn from your genocide in 1994.The feeling in Congo is not of a relief.You guys are putting innocent people from your community in danger.I hope you will take responsibility for any human right abuse.You are in charge now.Congratulations.Enjoy as long it will last.Only diamond last forever.

Unknown said...

What will be "increasingly hard to hide" is Jason Stearns' anti-Rwanda obsession. M23 fighters were greeted by population alike saviors, not like the criminal brutes Stearns and his buddies spent months depicting like... At the same time, retreating FARDC soldiers were helping themselves on defenseless civilians. As always... But don't expect Stearns to say a word about that.

Unknown said...

What will be "increasingly hard to hide" is Jason Stearns' anti-Rwanda obsession. M23 fighters were greeted by population like saviors, not like the criminal brutes Stearns and his buddies spent months depicting like... At the same time, retreating FARDC soldiers were helping themselves on defenseless civilians. As always... But don't expect Stearns to say a word about that.

Unknown said...

Beautiful, at least waters are clearer. For Congolese people, it is better to face inconvenient truths than live the last 15-year lies and hypocrisies.

(1)The DRCgov sin is clearly naivety, immobilism, indecisiveness, lack of anticipation and sheer lack of organization. But first of all, they have seemed to naively “negociate” with Rwanda in good faith and thought they were fighting so-called M23 and not, as reality has proven, RDF.

From what one gathers, FARDC have never really fought RDF throughout. They have retreated village after village. Is it because most of the commanders at the frontline are still M23 buddies? But one also gathers that a nucleus of truly patriot FARDC is slowly emerging.

(2)For some quarters of the IC, everyday this “unconditional inhumane support” of Kagame is becoming untenable. The moralistic evangelism of democracy, human rights or protecting civilians is being challenged “live” by facts in DRC. I mean how do we talk of all these ideals but ignore or fail to “actually” save lives of these millions innocent defenseless civilians dears Obama, Holland, Kabila or even Zuma?

(3)To powerfully equipped MONUSCO peacekeepers, don’t consider remarks by bastards like me on your non-role in the DRC. At least see what France’s FM Laurent Fabius finally says about the inaquacy of your mandate in DRC ( (@17:30)
The point is, why was MONUSCO sent into DRC to begin with? Have they kept peace or even created one?
Late president Wilson Woodrow or Truman are turning in their graves as the august IO they helped create is now used, not even to serve USA “vital national “interests", but by int’l coltan-gold mafia who are behind Kagame. Sad.

(4)As for Kagame’s Rwanda, the fall will be calamitous from this high in their automatic denials of their Implication in the latest killings in Kivus. 5000 RDC involved, USA weaponry and night-combat equipments used. Was it allowed by the USAgov as surely this should be from military assistance to Rwanda.

Unknown said...

@ June Sina at NOVEMBER 20, 2012 4:42 AM, @ James and the whole kagamist lot

Ref: “The tendency of congolese always relying on others to solve their own probs”
This quip is becoming either a mischief or an utter ignorance. Congolese are not asking for anything special. Know that everywhere vicious “rebellions” are always defeated through “MULTILATERAL COOPERATION or COMMITMENT” in the IC. How many countries are leagued to fight Al-Quaeda, Al-Shabaab, Touarehs, LRA… Remember, after 1994 the whole world went after interharmue through int’l trials, arrests,assassinations, generous aid and military assistance to Rwanda and so on and on. So don’t always believe the self-aggrandizing propaganda by your god kagame, it is bigger than that.

What Congolese are asking is justice and help. It is clear that in the short term the young FARDC will battle against more experienced Rwandan and Ugandan armies. But the future is OURS!!! I know u r laughing!

congo man said...

I don't see this as a victory. I now the entire world media is confirming what I have been saying for the last 8 month .now the world knows that this is the 3rd RWANDAN invasion of Eastern Congo but not a mutiny by some 600 angry soldiers. But this time the truth is out and all the war crimes and crimes against humanity that PAUL KAGAME and his troupes are committing in GOMA and elsewhere are being documented .unlike in 1998,or 2007...this time there's not going to be the FDRL ,defense of some Community,or any other lies to excuse the invasion. There will be no ONESUMBA,JP BEMBA,MBUSA NYAMWISI,JOHN CHIBANGU,GABRIEL AMISI,JEAN PIERRE ONDEKANE,ROGER LUMBALA ...or any powerful Congolese trator rallying to give a Congolese face to this barbaric RWANDO UGANDAN invasion. The COLTAN MAFIA and their remaining media like ALLAFRICA .COM .... will have a hard time convincing the rest of the international media to run their propaganda.even the BBC is now reporting the wide spread human whrite abuses that PAUL KAGAMEs m23 terrorists have perpetrated on civilian populations in all the areas under their control. all the Kagamists who are celebrating this crossing of a red line (GOMA)by PAUL KAGAME ,are just fooling themselves.they remind me how IRAQ SADAM HUSSEIN's SUNI supporters celebrated their leader's March to KUWAIT CITY. My friends you can celebrate this entrance to the trap as you wish but once the door is shut behind you ,there will be no easy way out.

Anonymous said...

Hi All-

Its Mel. Took some time off the SIasa Community to assist in the re-election of my President in the State of Florida(where I live)- which we accomplished with a squeaker! Glad to be back, as it were....

I guess I take some issue with the idea that we are, in this passion play, at the denouement.

Having set back and watched this from afar, M23 seems to be a vehicle of regional powers to assure that the status quo remains in force in the Eastern Congo. Thus, I think the goal here (not the strategy, but the goal- which is different) is to simply reassert that status quo, ie, “Museveni and Kagame are the bosses around here, Bosco is our patron, and if Kabila is seeking to upend this in any way we (Uganda and Rwanda) will simply need to remind him by unleashing him”.

I just really do get the impression this is an elaborate game of chess that is being played and taking Goma- or Bukavu, or Uvira, or hell, even Kisangani, is a series of checkmates from M23’s patrons. Each successive territorial gain is leverage that, at this point, only favors Congo’s enemies.

I realize some Congolese (like the folks who run our palm business in the Congo near Matadi) think the real goal is “pulling a Mali”- or causing the regime in Kinshasa to collapse by hook or crook from within. I grant that possibility. But, in my view, it isn’t probable given the iron fist/patronage mafia Kabila wields- even at this hour- and the simple fact that more gains on the battlefield outside of Goma proper will, as Jason is suggesting, point ever more cleanly to dirty hands in Kigali and Kampala. I’m also confident that no one in those two capitals want to risk a destabilization that could potentially draw the region into yet another cataclysm.

This is 2012, not 2002.

So, the real goal of M23 seems to be what it was when this all started: reinstate the status quo and force Kinshasa to drop their desire to end parallel chain of commands- and all that this actually means for those who benefit from it. The strategy is to engage in various tactics that expose Kinshasa as corrupt, inept, and un-worthy of respect and, at this point, to do so via a ying and yang of guerrilla warfare, stalemates, pressers, and now taking a major city.

The latter is clearly working and with more territorial gains to deepen their leverage further, they just might succeed at their ultimate goal.

M23 seems to be taking a page from Occupy. They are interested in the narrative- not the particulars- and its my thinking so too are “donors”.


June Sina said...

@Muana Congo, I agree that Intnal corporation is needed in wars but their is always a lead country-Others can help but Congo takes the lead instead of running away and calling the whole world to come and defend your house.

June Sina said...

@congo man,are you by nay chance related to Mende.Im sorry but y always play the same music-of blame Rda and sit back and relax.
Mende-w've been attacked by Rda,they are wearing RDF uniforms yet 2day Kazarama emerges wearing USA marine uniform-how sick is that? is it a matter of talking? really???

Unknown said...

congo man i seriously dont knw what world u live seems to me that u still believe in your army bs of tactical retreat r u kiddin me?if 23 decide to take bukavu tomrw it will be the same thing as goma they will melt away as kabarebe said b4 your army cant even kill a rat cause he knws them better than anybody else.believe me or not u got humuliated.tell me since when congo had an army nor a function government since the colonialism?

Unknown said...

@Jason, Congoman, Muna Congo, etc.
French ambassador has blasted MONUSCO for failure to hold off few hundred men. I can add that these men were armed with rusty AK47! AND THEY WERE YOUNG. They entered Goma in broad daylight, they used vehicles left behind by FARDC.
Where are Rwanda-supplied weapons? Where are Rwanda supplied night goggles? where are Rwandan commandos, the M23 guys look malnourished!
The whole thing has been characterised by a lie! falsehoods perpetuated by Jasons, the experts!
I have often seen pictres from m23 positions and it is pictures of poorly-fed guys armed with light weapons, nothing that suggests that they got heavy weapons!
Shame on Jason and other liars who made us believe that M23 was well equpied!
Their victory is because Congo is a giant of emptiness as Kabarebe said and nothing about outside support

tresor said...

Just give it up, everybody knows that Rwanda is directly involved. this war is between Rwanda and Congo for the control of both N and S Kivu. you can beat around the bush as much as you want, the evidence is there and has always been there long before the UN report

Unknown said...

Hi all,

Glad to be back.

Great news: Alex Goebbels Engwete just wrote this on his blog "People are now spoiling for a fight with M23, Rwanda, and all those
who side with them.And those siding with Rwanda include their own head of state and MONUSO."

Unlike many, if not most Congolese, I am not angry at Kabila at all.

I was angry at him almost one year ago when he stole the election.

Now, I leave that anger to those who are only awakening to reality that as long as a joke called JK is in power in this country, Rwanda will get a free ride in the Kivus...Do you think it was a coincidence why the CNDP was a member of the MP Presidential majority, why Ntaganda force Kabila "re-election" in Masisi the Kagame way?

Oh, wake up my brethen!


Unknown said...

For those who did not read this, here a transcript of the farce we followed yesterday:

Can one conclude this is a head of state of a country in serious military/security crisis speaking? oh my God,what do you expect with a "president" like this...


blaise said...

@Mel and Bruno,
welcome back guys.Good insights as usual.
I don't remember if I send you this already :

Were are your operations?We are on the outskirt of Banza Ngungu, testing Banana crops.
take care

SifaN28 said...

June, why is the truth hatred to you? There is no way you can tell me that m23 took Goma by there own capabilities! Two they are Congolese, I see Tutsi all over their faces!

grand stick said...

Déjà vu!

2 + 2 = 4

Why should anyone be truly surprised? Though under pressure, Kinshasa has the political weight of the international community. Kin has been playing (or arguably being fed) the victim card with the international community and have been consequently more apt to hold a harder line in the neighborhood. This doesn’t make for sine qua non confidence building measures between capitals.

Kigali made a decision to take this road. When Kigali makes a decision, it is frequently all or nothing (more below) and well calculated. A few months of a standstill and frustrations only added fuel to the fire – a more aggressive course of action. Though not altruistically motivated themselves; Kig, Kampala and Buj have suffered long years with a bad neighbor.

Bold move? Why should anyone be truly surprised? Kigali is nothing short of bold moves, whether that be economic (vision 2020)/health initiatives, information control/governance or the RDF, they are aggressive goal getters. Walk Goma to Gisenyi and one can easily see stark contrasts; night and day.

I mentioned a month ago that Rwanda would have the FARDC moving west at a high rate of speed.
The “Goma card’ is now the result of a strategic power play. Kigali has weighed this one in the balance and has several options. They will take the pain.

What westerners consider as rational just doesn’t cut it in Kigali. Pride is the Achilles heel of Kigali. They are making a “bold” move and what better supporter than Museveni who doesn’t give of a grand hoot of what western governments think. He enjoys sipping cocktails with Russia as much as with the UK. Also, Museveni has been bit by the RDF/Kagame and has learned enough from history to understand that his interest lie with a predictable neighbor and strong horse, Kigali. This relationship is good news. I like it.

In some regards, this can bear positive fruit. Exposing the gaping gunshot wound that has been covered with a band-aid by a PKO travesty (MONUSCO) and exploited by international investors and Kinshasa, is a necessary step. Got to get worse before it gets better.

I do know that if M23 controls the area for a protracted period, supported by UG and RW, there will be more stability in EDRC. We’ve already seen it under another guise...

Many of you NGOs are far from charitable in your efforts, too. Go home instead of hitting the clubs in Goma, running your feet through the sand at the Serena and sipping lattes at Bourbon.

Anonymous said...

Bruno! Blaise! How are you bloaks? Good, I hope ,though I’m fairly confident y’all are on edge these days like me.

@Blaise- Yep, you posted that a while back. Our farm is about 45 minutes outside of Matadi-in Kinzao. We purchased the land from a dear friend of my husbands-who grew up in Kisangani-and who is an importer of motorcycles in Butembo. We have a contract with the Nestle factory in Kinshasa and, hopefully, will secure one with a processing firm in Luanda. The farm management team (manager, foreman, accountant, secretary) are all jack AWESOME. They all have worked in various farming operations in the Congo for about 20 years now and the manager used to be a manager at his families local export/import company. His son is studying at U of Central Florida in Orlando (farming management major) and we are sponsoring him. We should have some profits in about 18 months- give or take.

@Bruno- HA! You had me at “Alex Goebbels Engwete”. Indeed, while deeply talented, “Alex” has morphed into a brilliant shill for the Kabila regime. So sad.

So, it appears the M23 is pretty serious about marching to Kinshasa and I was very wrong.

Given reports that Ambassador Rice is asking the UN to tone down the language on Rwanda in a forthcoming UNSC resolution, it seems clear to me that it has been decided amongst the relevant powers in this situation that the Kabila regime should end.

Public Service Announcement to Future Congolese Politicians: Political survival in this era of austerity means developing a political bass, not a patronage one, and spending the hard earned tax money of Westerners transparently, efficiently, and productively. Fail in these measures and you will lose your job.


Anonymous said...

And, in case Mssr Engwete is lurking around, here's his post taking me to task:

I was a little taken aback by that but, as you can see in my comments after his post, our tangoed continued.


blaise said...

@ Mel
looks like you have been busy.Good luck with your projects,Luanda is a great idea,that where the money is.
As for politics,indeed, we are on the edge.Tired to ear that M23 is taking town without a fight or barely.Feel for those IDP and Fardc poorly managed.
a lot of people don't want to see reality.they don't understand that our aspirations are different from our situation.We have to fight in order to achieve our dreams.
Had a long conversation with one of those prominent politician, my impression is that he didn't get what you just said"building a base versus patronage".Any logical person would have understand that,helas.
We are not deter by the grandiose plans of our Rwandan and Ugandan friends.I know that only diamond last forever.I'm confident that the after Kabila will be a better place.

Virunga Mountains said...

I think its good the way things have turned-out, politically-of-course, socially not good as the populace is bearing the brunt of M23 terrorism.

As many commentators[on this blog] have always pointed out that, M23 criminals was a Museveni and Kagame's terrorist out-fit. They were very right.

They themselves[M23] have now abandoned the March 23rd agreement mantra and are now shamelessly singing the overthrow of Joseph Kabila. What then happened to the previous cause? Why brew mistrust for Tutsi that are living peacefully under the control of Joseph Kabila??
Then how comes they're now very interested to go to Kinshasa when previously they all didn't want to go there, are the FDLR now in Kinshasa??

Of-course they had no legitimate cause but an adventure to harvest new killings fields in Congo.

From the audio communication(radio calls) at the battlefields, that I've managed to listen too, all the commanding instructions before the seizure of Goma, were being conducted in Kinyarwanda and most of the aggressive instructions-here I mean those that were calling for movement of big guns to vantage points, were in Rwandan Kinyarwanda. Yes,I can tell the difference between Congolese Kinyarwanda slang and Rwandan slang- because, I know both communities very well. Every single voice in the background, spoke in Kinyarwanda. Also the interesting bit of it, is the communication between Rwanda government journalist and fighters on the battle field.
i.e Journalist: have you managed to push the scumbags back?
Commander: Yes,the scums are already spilling everywhere and we're following it to Goma!
Journalist: I wish I was there with you to kick-arse.
Commander like you were picked to get information, I was also picked to kick these animals.
Journalist: I promise to give you 2 cows.
Commander: Don't worry we shall find many wild cows in Masisi.
These are just a few extracts from 5days audio and all in Kinyarwanda.
I promise to post everything on my blog when ready.

Getting back to the main point-why its politically a good thing the way things have turned out to be;
Just like a baboon on a tree, the world can now see its red ugly shitting-hole.
Criminal Kagame and Criminal Museveni might think that they're very smart and have outmaneuvered the world, but not.

Monusco managed to gather loads of ballistic evidence from points were M23 shells had landed,and samples have been sent to ballistic labs abroad.
The experts can trace it to the manufacturer-supplier-buyer,and owner.
Then the user will have to explain why it was fired at civilians and the UN, plus who broke the arms-embargo to supply lethal weapons to rogue elements in the DRC. Remember that during the battle of Kiwanja, 60 M3 terrorists were taken alive and have turned out to be a great source of information.

In-spite of Joseph Kabila's political mismanagement flows, the world has now woken-up from their deep slumber/self-denial.
What we're very likely to witness, is a transitional power-sharing arrangement between Etienne Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila. During this process, we could see Jose disappearing in Oblivion.
This is also the end of Criminal Paul Kagame-You could say that, his already limping to his demise. I won't spill the beans here, but just trust me on this.
How about M23 criminals?? The top cream will end up as wanted fugitives for war crimes-shooting at UN and overrunning their base. This is a very serious crime-also the UN report of experts won't go away. Basically, we shall witness the crumbling of M23 very soon, as they don't have Congo and Congolese on their side.
The welcoming of M23 in Goma does not mean support,its fear-seeing their tormentors back.... can you imagine how heart broken Congolese are, especially when their tormentors are back and being herded like cattle and then addressed not in Lingala, but Swahili?? Very heartbreaking!!


congo man said...

@virunga mountain
Welcome back bros ,i can't agree with you more . I have been telling all the Kagamists to celebrate as much as they can before the trap door get shut. Those who are dreaming of a president NTAGANDA, vice pres NKUNDA, defense minister MAKENGA can continue dreaming.
The truth is that GOMA,RUCHURU,BUNAGANA ,BUKAVU...will always be part of the DRC.PAUL KAGAME and YOWERI MUSEVENI can continue dreaming but they will never succeed on changing the map of that Country. They can again temporarily occupy those territories,and continue on their killing spree .but this is only adding more evidence against PAUL KAGAME and his terrorists.

blaise said...

here is the link to help Heal Africa hospital's trauma center.They are treating ppl of Goma for free.$5 and up.Thank you for your support

congo man said...

@kizza Brown
What is happening is a war between the RDF and the RDF .the RDF (m22)under MAKENGA and KABAREBE are wearing RDF, AMERCAN,UDF etc uniforms and The RDF (infilrated FARDC ) are wearing FARDC uniforms.this is the reason why the real FARDC are unable to fight .but this is just temporary. They'r going to be a clean up soon .my friend this is the last adventure for PAUL KAGAME and YOWERI MUSEVENI .their bloody dictatorships are on their last days.

congo man said...

@James and June Sina
I don't know what happened to the spin doctor in chief ms LOUS MUSHIKIWABO. You are now sending conflicting messages.wile the entire Rwanda is celebrating the RDF victory in GOMA only you and June are still denying the truth and Continue to call this an international DRC matter ,even your own boss PAUL KAGAME has just thrown you under the bus by agreeing to meet with KABILA in KAMPALA to negotiate the terms of a peace deal between KINSHASA and his M23 terrorists.if I was the one in charge of your spin room ,I would have asked PAUL KAGAME to ignore the KAMPALA joke ,stay in KIGALI ,hold a last press conference on this matter and like you ,deny all involvement by Rwanda and again call this an international DRC problem. anyway I don't think he (PAUL KAGAME ) listens to anyone .all psycho ruthless bloody dictators like KAGAME,MUSEVENI ,HITLER,MUSOLINI etc don't listen to anyone but themselves.

congo man said...

Sorry for my typo .I meant internal DRC matter.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for that, Blaise.

Sent it to my Congo "listserve" here in FL.

Bout 200 people.


Unknown said...

Spin doctoring or whatever, I have been consistent based on my logical reasoning and what I fairly know.
You are obsessed with caLLING NAMES AND GIVING YOURSELVES FALSE HOPES. That escape door will be shut. bla bla. I can assure you that if RDF was involved, Kinshasa would fall in three months. Remember RPA, which was smarting from bush life and was only two years old in power with no trained officers, marched to Kinshasa for six months. What about today? The sad thing they installed lunatics, who are messing up things!
As for their current involvement, why get involved? FARDC are not supplied, I saw FARDC brigadier general, who is in charge of North Kivu military region on TV, he look malnourished! He cannot even brush his teeth, these are kind of soldiers, who are even defeated by Raia Mutomboki. They ran without firing a shot. Any militia group can defeat them.

tresor said...

@ Virunga , I realy hope your analysis is correct and come true one day, because we are so tired

Jason Stearns said...

I am posting this for Philip Lancaster, who due to technical problems could not do so himself:

The fall of Goma should not come as a surprise to anyone who has watched the persistent ineptitude in Kinshasa and paid attention to what has been going on in North Kivu for more than a decade. What is surprising is the chorus of condemnation that seems, at the very least, inconsistent with years of outcry over endemic human rights abuse, particularly mass rape. It has seemed for some years that the Kivus were well described in Thomas Hobbes' idea of war of all against all and that the logic of the conditions called for the imposition of order through the actions of some force strong enough to impose its will on the many armed actors taking part in what had become a condition of violent anarchy. It seemed that the more UN Peacekeepers were deployed, the worse the situation became, particularly for women and children. Countless negotiations failed to resolve the problem as one or more players in the game of Congo politics cheated and reduced to naught whatever agreement had been reached. If UN Peacekeeping has consistently failed to protect civilians and if negotiation has also failed to generate a viable peace then something else needed to happen. It just did. Under the circumstances, perhaps we should wait to see how M23 behaves before we rush to condemn it. After all, it would have to be very bad indeed to create worse conditions than were there before they arrived.


Jason Stearns said...

(Part II from Phil Lancaster)

One other point that continues to fascinate me is the energy that has gone into condemnation of both Uganda and Rwanda for supporting M23 given our collective silence on the issue of Congolese support to the FDLR and their predecessors. There are several distinct issues here that need separate treatment. First, are we agreed on the facts? The deliberate leaking of the just released report by the UN Group of Experts had the effect of cheating the system of checks and balances that might have allowed for allegations to be publicly tested before conclusions were drawn. The allegations took on a life of their own and have been widely quoted as factually correct. If we truly believe in the rule of law then we need to ask ourselves some serious questions about what due process means in the field of international affairs.

Second, are we agreed that M23 is in the wrong? The mass of accusations and calls for sanction would seem to suggest that we are. But surely the Congolese community represented by M23 have some issues that need serious consideration. I do not think any careful observer of Congolese affairs could possibly mistake the double dealing and empty promises the M23 group have been subject to for anything but what they were - an attempt to silence them. The same issue arises with Rwandan claims that Congo continues to harbour and support genocidaires. Again, since the Genocide, their complaints and cries for justice have never been taken seriously - never! So, the actions taken by M23 may indeed include attrocities for which they should answer but their accusers should also answer for their silence on the issue of justice for the survivors of the Genocide.

Finally, for more than a century, Congo has been the target of criticism by human rights activists, religious leaders and humanists. King Leopold's creation has been dysfunctional from the start and yet since Independence various incompetent regimes have been propped up by outside help. Prior to the arrival of colonial interests several kingdoms and a number of smaller tribal groups managed to live in some sort of productive relationship in the space now occupied by DRC. So many attempts to 'fix it' have foundered on the rocks of Congo's internal tensions that it seems only logical to consider some other arrangement. Painful as it might be, perhaps M23 will be the catylist for something that actually works to the benefit of those who live there. I repeat, it would be hard for it to do worse than the best that has been done so far by the combined efforts of the UN and a weak central government.

Phil Lancaster, Victoria, Canada

Unknown said...


Let me tell you were not wrong at all in your analysis which I totally share.

The thing that's likely to happen is the M23 are going to defy the will of their patrons (who have no interest in toppling Kabila but only wanted to "teach him a lesson") by marching onto Kinshasa. Just remember also that back in 1996, Kagame's and Museveni's immediate and initial goal was not to overthrow Mobutu...but sometimes when you light a fire (as our three musketeers Kagame,Kabila and Museveni did) you don't always know in which direction it is going to flare, whether it'll burn you to start with.

That's what happens when you're as short-sighted as the DRC leader to start thinking a strong army is a threat to your power. Now, his chickens have come home to roost...

I'll come back with more thoughts on that one later.


tresor said...

IF the M23 is a pure congolese tutsi regime I fully support the march to kinshasa because realy one thing that the majority of congolese people are crying about is that Kabila needs to go. if only the m23 can break away from Rwanda's influence and mobalise other congolese to join them in removing Kabila the will be a dream come true

bfhend said...

I don't think the current situation is all that complicated...the DRC is in the throes of an interstate war involving three belligerent countries. What is complicated is the hyperreal simulation of reality in which the international community have been reticent in stating the obvious - though that is changing judging by statements from the British foreign secretary, the French foreign minister, and indeed the US State Department.

Phil Lancaster is correct that the humanitarian situation in the Kivus has worsened in recent years given the ineptitude of the Congolese government. The dysfunction of the UN system is also on full display - as the UNSC gave MONUSCO a mandate without the necessary means to carry it out.

I cannot agree with Phil Lancaster that the Congolese government has not attempted to deal with the FDLR. Indeed the Kivus have been under almost continuous occupation by Rwanda under various guises since 1996...and yet the FDLR continues to pose a threat, mostly to Congolese civilians.

Leaking the UN GoE report does not obviate its conclusions. The international community has shown no rush to judgement in trying Thomas Lubanga or indicting Bosco Ntaganda...for the people of Ituri the wheels of justice proved painfully slow.

I simply do not see a rush to judgement in condemning the M23 now. I believe the international community has correctly determined that nothing in M23's behavior suggests it will prove a catalyst for positive change in the DRC - and the relevant governments have shown no inclination to confer any international legitimacy on the rebellion or its leaders.

The incompetence of the Congolese government and the dysfunction of the UN system have led to a humanitarian catastrophe in eastern Congo...putting a spotlight on the failures of the international system at all levels might prove a catalyst for positive change in the DRC.


Kongo in NYC said...

I also feel this isn't complicated.

I think, as Congolese, we face a real moment of truth here. Our political system, from Lumumba to this very day, is simply unable to properly unify the nation and encourage development.

There are many reasons for this but, to a degree, I've always believed in stems from the sheer challenge of needing to govern so large a territory and a very diverse set of peoples.

For most of our history we've sought to do so by concentrating so much power in the center.

But what has been the cost of this approach? I'm not an academic, but from my vantage point this led to our first crisis, a kleptocratic dictatorship, a massive civil war, another dicatorship with the veneer of "democracy", and, ofcourse, crisis after crisis and rank anarchy in the East which brings us to where we are today.

We have got to stop this Congolese. Concetrating so much power in the center has led to the death and suffering of too many of our people. Yes, there are great powers in the world who seek unfettered access to our land but, in my view, this results from our inability to properly and efficiently govern it ourselves.

Is it time for a more federated, decentralized approach?

M23 fundamental concern isn't a "stolen election" or some other cynical complaint. As others on this blog have suggested (Blaise, Bruno, Bismarck, Mel, etc) it stems from Tutsi concern over their claims to citizenship. Yes, army pay, promotions, access to resources, and machinations in Kigali and Kampala(and silence from Dar, Luanda, and Nairobi) are part of these claims but, at its root, its really about their insecurity as a group in the eastern congo that is driving their 4,000th rebellion.

Like the ancient Greeks of old, I believe its time for we Congolese to take stock of our history and this latest crisis and try to imagine a different political system that can actually lead to a well-governed nation-as opposed to ethnic strife, criminal patronage networks, official and unyielding corruption, provinces pitted against provinces, human rights violations, and anarchy in the East that typify our system now.

This isn't complicated. It just means we need to start having the conversation, reimagine what something different could look like, and work to achieve it.

Let's use this crisis as the opening galvo of that attempt.


Anonymous said...

Interesting, Clay.

I think what M23 wants is their own nation in the East.

I mean, they can't be integrated, they likely don't have the capacity to take Kinshasa, I doubt their will be a coup in Kinshasa (perhaps, but not likely), and the Congolese simply won't tolerate too many more demands at this point.

The logical option then is their own nation. If it is, I don't really see that as too bad of an idea though, ofcourse, it will set a fairly dangerous precedent in Africa.


Nkunda said...

Phil Lancaster's "genocide" cries would only have legitimacy if this was 18 years ago. What does he have to say of the UN Mapping report that points to a possible genocide against members of the Hutu ethnic group by Kagame? Is this to be completely forgotten? Does it have any consequence on how we understand Rwanda and Kagame in particular?

Guys, stop hiding yourself under a one-legged view of history.

congo man said...

As long as the NANDE makes up over 60% of north KIVU's population,and the.Rwandophones are les than 2% of that provinces population.there will never be an M23 Country. KAGAME can dream as much as he wants but his dream will forever be a dream .if the South Soudanes population was over 80% ARAB MUSLIMS and 1% black Christians there was never going to be a SOUTH SUDAN . KAGAME can foul himself and western peoples who do not understand or know the Region ,and make his quik blood coltan money before his bloody dictatorship comes to a end .but the reality on the ground is against any plans that him (PAUL KAGAME) and his brother YOWERI MUSEVENI will ever draw . Can u imagine all those millions of NANDE ,HUNDES,NYANGAS,HAVUS,REGA,....became Rwandese?
The only solution for RWANDA is real reconciliation and power sharing a la BURUNDAISE. PAUL KAGAME behaves like a bully who thinks that he can just dump his mess on his neighbor's backyard just because that neighbor is having a non life threatening headache and is unable to stop him until that headache goes away .and all the KAGAMISTS who are now poping up all over this blog in support of the M23 are like the billy's friends who cheers every time that the garbage get over that neighbor's fence.and ignore that this tipe of behavior will back fire no matter what. The BURUNDI solution is the only way for RWANDA and there's no other way around it.

congo man said...

@ Nkunda
I totally agree with you bros .many of this peoples mostly with western names who are poping celebrating their clients victory in Goma .are amongst the many ARM DEALERS and Criminals who have been operating in that region as Humanitarians. You can see that most of them do not want any form of peace to return to that region .most of them are recist criminals who care less about the misery that PAUL KAGAME and his terrorists have been causing to the people of the great lakes .they will say and do anything to keep their bloody business going.

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June Sina said...

Scenerio.Kabila tells R'da & UG,part of my house is leaking in this rainy season,wht can I do? Fix it be4 the leakage thy tell him.No, I will just to move to the other side of the room.Soon the leak is directly on top of his bed and now he runs back to neighbours what can I do? Like we said be4,you have to fix the roof by these means-come we shall help you since yr lack of accomodation in this rainy season might affect as neighbours.This is wht happened.I dont want to negotiate with M23 and now Goma has fallen and y go back,I was wrong,I want to negociate.So kabila requests kagame to meet him and help him put back his hse in order.Kabila requested the meeting -very panicked.

congo man said...

@ June
I agree with you that KABILA's weakness, is the reason why PAUL KAGAME has been causing all this troubles in the Region .the DRC needs a leader to stand up to this tyrant .
but when it comes to panick, i do not agree with you. PAUL KAGAME ,and his spin doctor LOUIS MUSHIKIWABO looked more panicked and tense like if they did not get any sleep for the last 3moths. I think the pressures and threats of sanctions are stating to have an effect on them .I think he now knows that Goma was a red line .yes he might have succeed on buying time for his chief terrorist BOSCO NTAGANDA and ethers ,but new names like MAKENGA,KAZARAMA,JAMES KABAREBE ...are being added to the most wanted list and ICC is getting ready to come knock at his door .

Anonymous said...

@congo man

So, I agree with much of your sentiment. And, believe it or not, I share much of it. But, to be clear, I was responding to “Kongo in NYC” who, in my simple opinion, has probably asked the most salient question of this thread.

Clay’s basic question was the following: Given where we are does it not make sense to start giving more power and autonomy to Congo’s provinces- in particular those in the East?

I know this question, for Congolese nationalists, is deeply troubling when it comes from those outside the country. I understand that sentiment. But, it is a fine question to ask in light of some pretty glaring facts.

Here are those facts:

- The M23 rebellion is a rebellion of, by, and for, the Congolese. It is Congolese nationals who have taken up arms against their own government. Yes, Tutsi’s dominate it. But, the fact remains that they are Congolese Tutsi’s.
- This rebellion is winning. It has, on several occasions, humiliated and beaten the Congolese Army.
- This rebellion, while receiving support from abroad, is a direct result of the unwillingness of the Congolese government to extend its authority over the fullness of Congo’s territory and to reform the army.
- This rebellion, at its core, is the result of the centralization of power in Kinshasa. All power corrupts, but, in the Congo, this corruption is essentially what passes for normal “politics”. The corruption, decadence, and intrigue of this political system has severely blinded those who seek power in the Congo to such a degree that efforts at self-protection- like stealing elections- has led to yet another crisis that threatens the entire regime.
- This is not the first political or existential crisis the Congolese State has witnessed in the 50 years of independence.
- The country no longer has any friends or allies in its greatest hour of need. The Chinese “loaned” the country $6 billion. Well, where are they?

The M23 has all the leverage right now. Unless the West agrees to tighten the screws on Kigali, nothing will change that.

So, I leave you- congo man- with this question:

The international community must deal with yet another flare up in Palestine, continuing bloodshed in Syria, and a full blown fiscal crisis. Between that and two strong allies in Central Africa with broadly stable and strong governments (Uganda and Rwanda) what, rationally speaking, makes the most sense policy wise: destabilize Rwanda and East Africa with it? Or force the Congolese government to give more autonomy to its restive provinces and, with that, perhaps give the boot to a crook who has failed in governing (Kabila)?

Mr Stearns seems to think this logic is at best, perverse, and, at worst, immoral.

It is actually just politics which has never been the arena of moral purity or reasonableness.


Anonymous said...

And just to be clear, I actually believe Kabila will survive.

He has the Presidential Guard who, given his ability to be a good patron to each serviceman, will ensure he remains the Chief. In fact, I think one of the reasons the FADRC is folding so easily on the battlefield is because Kabila can still, paradoxically, maintain control and still lose what little authority he has in the East.

Those troops aren't the elite so, from Kabila's calculation, they are expendable and so too are a few battles.

congo man said...

@ Mel
I respect your opinion .but I strongly disagree with you .I spent many years in East Africa,mostly in KENYA ,TANZANIA and Eastern Congo.I have traveled that region and understand it very well.for the last 2 decades that region has gone through a big transformation,politicaly and the exception of Somalia. KENYA ,ETHIOPIA ,TANZANIA are the 3 biggest economies and engines of stability in that region.but i think TANZANIA and maybe Djibouti are the most in term of political stability. despite some low-level secessionist movement in Zanzibar .TANZANIA continue to be the most stable democracy in the Region.
Now I don't know what you meant by strong government or stability. because for the last 2 decades the dictatorships of RWANDA and UGANDA has proven to be the engines and exporters of instability in the Region . RWANDA and UGANDA remain the only 2 ruthless dictatorships in the Region with little or no freedom of press ,assembly....Rwanda's PAUL KAGAME and Uganda's YOWERI MUSEVENI are among the longest serving dictators in AFRICA who are trying to resist the democratic changes that have been sweeping that Continent for the last 2 decades.and continue to be the worst human wright abusers in the African Continent .
- in regard to the regional autonomy (BALKANIZATION). This up to the Congoles people to decide .and 99.9 % of the Congoles people wants and will die to keep that Country together .you sim to underestimate the patriotisme and pride of the Congoles people. Yes some of us are very obsessed with Geo politics yet they all want one DRC.
-the m23 Rebellion is just a cover for a 3rd RWANDO-UGANDAN invasion of the DRC and with more than 99% of the population opposed to it,that movement is doomed .
-I am not Concerned about KABILA or CHISEKEDI 's survival like many people on this blog .Congo is bigger than those 2 politicians ,but all I know is that unlike 1996, a military invasion of KINSHASA at this moment is more likely to result in a REPUBLIC of KATANGA with KABILA or someone else as their president. and blood baths in many other regions of the nation .anyway my prediction is that the m23 are doomed, Jk will be out after 2016 ,and The DRC will remain undivided. I respect your opinion but I think most of the tired old lies and propaganda from the bloody COLTAN MAFIA and the KAGAME's spin rooms ,is no longer working .
RWANDA is a ticking time bomb that sooner or later will explaud.

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Lora Nelson said...

@ Jason:
Why do you think the M23 gets to keep a battalion at the airport? So that they can continue smuggling minerals?

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