Painting by Cheri Samba

Lokuta eyaka na ascenseur, kasi vérité eyei na escalier mpe ekomi. Lies come up in the elevator; the truth takes the stairs but gets here eventually. - Koffi Olomide

Ésthetique eboma vélo. Aesthetics will kill a bicycle. - Felix Wazekwa

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Criticism of how the votes are being compiled

Further to my post yesterday, foreign diplomats have asked election commissioner Ngoy Mulunda why he is invalidating entire polling stations in Kinshasa but not in other provinces. Apparently, the commission has now said he would not invalidate votes in Kinshasa - observers are waiting to see if the disqualified bundles of votes will be entered into the system now.

In general, the main complaint has been the lack of transparency in vote compilation. The election commission is releasing bulk results by entire electoral districts, which makes it impossible for observers and political parties to check individual polling station results with the official tally. Observer missions (including the Catholic church and civil society) feel that they had representative in a majority of polling stations and will be able to check for large incidents of fraud.

Publishing results by polling station will also help (although not completely solve) address allegations of fake voting stations. When the list of voting stations was published before elections, allegations came forward that some of the stations on the list did not exist, which raised the possibility that the poll would rigged in stations where by definition there could be no independent witnesses. But here, too, disaggregated results could pinpoint stations where there were no opposition witnesses or observers. If results there were questionable, they could then be scrutinized further.

Foreign ambassadors have raised this matter with Ngoy Mulunda, who has cited logistical problems - including the fact that their website was hacked - as a reason for not publishing disaggregated results. 

44 comments:

james said...

Jason, I just received phone call from a friend in Kinshasa, someone who normally has a balanced and moderate view of events in DRC. The population in Kin is panicking, it seems. They fear they will be abandonned by the international community as the Rwandese have been abandonned in 1994. They fear a civil war with countless casualties. Is he exaggerating? There are also rumours that foreign troops have arrived in Kin to quell any resistance (Eritrean and Tanzanian troops, says radio trottoire)
Roger

Anonymous said...

ambiance!! let the rumors flow: de site of France24 has closed the comments because all the internet-"con"battants going bezurk in front of their pc's.
see: ->
http://www.france24.com/fr/20111203-rumeurs-intox-rd-congo-presidentielle-congolaise-web-internet-portable

ethuin said...

i have been receiving information on increasing tension in kinshasa as well and i further agree with jason's post of the last couple of days, but i do not see any way to draw comparisons to rwanda. just wrote another analysis on my blog as well:

http://ethuin.wordpress.com/2011/12/03/second-partial-tranche-of-drc-election-results-ceni-gives-kabila-clear-lead/

Anonymous said...

@ethuin: nobody is suggesting another genocide is on the way but that the "International community" is turning a blind eye to irregularities and if trouble starts they will pull out instead of defusing a situation that is clearly within their power to solve...like in Rwanda in 1994. That said, Ngoy Mulunda could also help defuse the situation by giving details of the counting methodology. People are more likely to accept defeat if it is substantiated with figures. For instance, Tshisekedi will have no ground for challenge if votes counted by CENI match those published by each polling bureau and that political parties also recorded. I think the opacity of the counting increases distrust: Congolese psyche is always receptive to conspiracy theories and the lack of transparency increases the idea that something is being prepared behind the scenes against the interest of the vast majority of Congolese. It is the pastor duty to clear that misunderstanding !!

ethuin said...

ok, i agree. still i would rather compare to the ivorian than to the rwandan case. but that is a matter of analytical approach and not relevant for the actual observation of drc. the underlying issue in this is whether the ceni is not capable or not willing to respond to claims for transparency.

Anonymous said...

I fully agree with Jason's post because it brings back common sense in this debate, Ngoyi Mulunda is on a mission to win the election for his candidate. How the hacking of CENI's website prevents them from publishing disaggregated results? What particular logistics do you need to provide the name or code of the centres which have already been processed? You do not need to be a conspiracy theorist to understand what is going on. I believe that the process was biased from its start because it was suicidal for the opposition to accept Mulunda as chair person of the CENI, Mulunda's acquaintances with Kabila utterly affect his objectivity.

Anand said...

@Anonymous Dec. 4, 6:09am - I think your words, "You do not need to be a conspiracy theorist to understand what is going on," perfectly sum up what is happening. Without going into super specifics or over analyzing, it seems the basic questions being asked of CENI have not been answered reasonably. WHAT logistical problems prevent releasing results by polling station? WHY were votes going to be invalidated, and now they are not? Are the votes that are not being disqualified now going to be ENTERED? HOW does a hacked website prevent disaggregated results? These aren't difficult questions to answer if the overseeing entity is being truly transparent.

@Ethuin - I am not sure how or why CENI would lack the capability to answer these questions. It seems to be a matter of willingness. Why they are unwilling is a good question.

Anonymous said...

Anon Dec 4th 6:09 and Anand LITERALLY stole the words right out of my mouth (or laptop?).

It is probably the case that some of this is the sword of Damocles being held over CENI's head at the moment. But, at the very least, they need to answer these very basic questions if the results they are PUBLICLY releasing are to be considered even barely accurate- among other questions.

The concern about the website is a complete red herring. CENI has an internal intranet right? That's where all this is being kept right? So how does a public site's hacking have anything to do with link results to polling stations?

Honestly, I am trying to give CENI the benefit of the doubt here for the pure sake of being impartial but they are fundamentally failing on the most basic of tasks and that failure could literally cause the country to explode.

Ngoy had better answer, very soon, whether or not they will disaggregate results PER polling station. While I don't want Kabila to win, if he or ET does it needs to be through a credible and transparent process.

Short of this, and we will dive headlong and fast into the abyss.

Mel

Anonymous said...

Wait a minute.

CENI is releasing results that are not disaggregated?

Oh.My.God.

ethuin said...

@anand i also rather think ceni is not willing. but if you have been to drc, you will know how things are on the ground. therefore, even if it is less probable than the other way round, it is also possible that ceni is not capable...

Anand said...

@Mel - I don't doubt that CENI is acutely aware of the potential backlash that could come from what they say and do, alluded to in your Greek analogy. I truly hope voices of calm and reason guide the coming events as much as possible, as Rich has alluded to in some previous posts.

Anonymous said...

if foreign diplomats are asking Ngoy these questions, i think that is a fairly big deal.

it seems to suggest that they want to see basic transparency before, well, they reserve judgement on this regime they support.

if this most basic of election procedures is not upheld the only justifiable conclusion is that ceni is not interested in transparency and, as such, the results they are releasing cannot be trusted.

i really do hope Ngoy gets on with the dis-aggregating.

if not, its rather likely the west will come to see this election as a sizable portion of congolese do- fraudulent to the very core given the "irregularities" that have been documented.

personally, I am with the great Howard French, the "Jason Stearns" of his day, on what is unfolding in the Congo:

French's tweet today:

@hofrench: a picture of very serious fraud is taking shape in the Congo. One worries about its aftermath.


jose

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Anand and good post Jose (as per always).

I do have faith calmer heads will prevail in the Congo. I actually believe that the elites in this country, while divided, do love the Congo and that to a degree the craziness we are seeing from all sides reflects a deep and abiding love for the Congo but also a desperation about its plight domestically and internationally.

I actually believe that even with all the repression, predation, and division.

Its my thinking that:

- we will have violence
- at some point the West will intervene
- impartial Congolese leaders (like the awesome Archbishop of Kinshasa) will mediate, or Mandela or someone. (just not Jesse Jackson please)
- some transitional structure will be created with Etienne/UDPS having a measure of power with Kabila or vice versa like in Kenya
- this will encourage a more vibrant and less rumber stamp-y National Assembly which will mean a less powerful Presidency.
- reforms to the Congo's political system will occur
- the next vote will be far more prepared, credible, and transparent.
- we could likely see another Constitution as well
- the economy will boom with the political risk, more or less, removed and stronger institutions to fight impunity, corruption, etc.

I don't think this is too far fetched given other examples (Kenya, Zimbabwe, Zambia back in the day, etc) though my preference is the Kenyan model.

Mel

ethuin said...

mel, you're drawing a nice picture, though it seems somewhat utopian to me. i am crossing fingers, but i cannot believe there will be substantial change in the way the political system of drc is configurated.

Rich said...

Anand & Mel -

Thanks for your comments, yes I could not agree more with you when you say CENI MUST provide disaggregated results.

That said, I am also thinking about the practicability of this. For statistical presentation, this means one (CENI) would have to produce a crosstabulation of + or - 63,000 X 11 plus breakdowns of total registered and total turned out to vote/missing voters/invalidated (if ever there are) etc... at both column and row levels! Such crosstab would seem a little bit congested hence the CENI blaming logistic problems...

Anyway, there should be a way of doing this but I am not sure what technology and expertise they have to crunch and present these numbers let not forget that the central server was discredited early in the process... bottom line, independant observers and partis must cross check the published results with what they've got and so far no one has come to say if any from the polling stations published do not reflect their figures...

Maybe J Kabila is not as unpopular as people were led to believe! It will be very interesting to get an early snapshot of the parliamentary. One of my brothers finished 5th out of more than 100 candidates in Likasi but only the top 3 are going to be MPs for his juridiction... He campaigned as an independant with no resources at all...

Rich

Anonymous said...

@ethuin

its not that utopian. i was in Nairobi during the crisis with my wife (who is Congolese and has family in Nairobi) and not ONE kenyan thought something good or grand would come out of their crisis.

and, ofcourse, it did. now, on the grand scheme of things, what country is more important? kenya or congo?

and to be clear, i've actually had worse problems on the corruption end in kenya (and nigeria) than I have EVER had in the congo. even kids of low level civil servants ask for bribes in kenya, man!

let's just hope for mel's basic "transitional" process. that really is the only escape hatch here.

@rich- the process cannot be that hard. this is basically what should happen in all elections.

- people vote
- the poll is closed and has a number
- the poll workers, observers (if any), party reps, count the ballots- the good and the "bad"
- the poll sends-via text, phone, email, mail, internal intranet to the election body, etc- the final count of the good and bad ballots. each poll does this.
- the poll puts up the final result for the public to view.
- the ballots are taken to some central tabulation center and counted again.
- as they are counted, a "valid" ballot has to come from an actual polling center before it is included in the final results
- the results are published
- a winner is declared

somewhere along the way, congolese observers (as Jason noted) noticed that these steps were not taken.

here's ONE group led by a Bishop: http://freefairdrc.com/en/latest-news/blog-posts/292-the-partial-results-of-the-elections-an-ngo-asks-the-ceni-to-be-more-precise-with-regards-to-the-polling-stations-reported

and ofcourse, the group of Congolese bishops-CENCO- are raising alarms as well:
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE7B304420111204?sp=true

now, this is pretty standard. i mean, i did this in high school in New York City. hell, i even know all the ways you can cheat having done so in those elections. :) hahaha!

but the problem good Rich is that we are releasing results without this basic process being set.

thus, how can we be sure the results we are seeing are, indeed, actually the result?

again, this is STANDARD procedure and you want to suggest that CENI either did not know this or can't do it?

that's crazy, rich and I know you are smarter than than.

at bare minimum, ceni is responsible for this BASIC OF PROCESSES. they need to get on with ensuring that atleast the tabulation process- given how volatile it is- is credible and transparent.

finally, noone is saying Kabila is not liked. all we are asking is to get a clear and credible vote that demonstrates he is indeed the people's choice for president.

we are a loooooonnnnggg ways from that given this new revelation.

jose

Anonymous said...

Ha!

You're a New Yorker, Jose!!?? No wonder you know all this. Good lord that city's political machine engaged in ballot fraud that would likely make the Congolese blush back in the day.

Indeed, had it NOT been for Tammany Hall and other machines we probably wouldn't have had President's like Lincoln and Woodrow Wilson.

Mel

ethuin said...

@jose don't get me wrong, please... but reforms in drc might be more difficult to achieve than in kenya. and, in that regard, it doesn't really matter which country is important or not, it is rather a question of the political cultures and political systems. i don't have any particular topic in mind where drc and kenya share identical patterns - especially not concerning democratic culture or similar things.
i am hoping as you and @mel and many others probably do as well. but we should not fall prey to unrealistic expectations, as this will not favour the congolese devleopments either. we should stick to some sort of reserved and realistic optimism, in my view.

Rich said...

@ ethuin -

Thanks, I agree with your last comment.

Rich

Anonymous said...

Dear @

i have chosen to stay away of the contreversy on results and data collection and methodology. I believe most of you are well informed and have given good comments sometime a bit biased. Yet i feel closer to support Rich positions and defintely like Mel last posting full of forward thinking. let me add some meat on:

1. Actually, no one should be surprised by the level of violence as indicated in my previous posting on the real issues or diagnostic of the Congo. This country was created from scratch – ex nihilo- in violence since the Congo Independent States (CIS in 1884), Leopold II tragic era, harsh Belgium Colonization, disastrous de-colonization in 1960 and subsequent catastrophic Mobutu era and much closer. Controlling the state power was and is always the prime objective of the politicians and their allies. Not necessary the development of the people. Just the exploitation of vast and strategic resources still untapped or not exhausted! SA is the biggest winner after SunCity effect. Real powerful and vested interests intending to finish up the unfinished businesses!

2. DR Congo was pushed is this logic of universal direct elections every five years without the necessary political culture and infrastructure? A big social lab with try and error? Who had suggested this instead of the Electoral College that impose to have local representatives elected at the grass root level on merit and then be mandated at upper level. Why federalism or confederalism is always silenced?. Why not the rotating presidency like in the Federal Swiss with similar model to self managed Cantons? Why not envisage an amicable separation well negotiated by the Congolese themselves? The more we delay to engage discussions on this, the more costly will be each election. The copy pasted democracy model has shown its limits and will never work properly without local adjustments, cultural and historical based adaptation.

3. There must be another round of talks to build a new political consensus and order. The elected President shall have this in his mind as a matter of priority and the international community should support and encourage this absolutely imperative move and stay away from doctinal or ideological position of the western democacy model one size fits all. Whatever the outcome, the next President shall engage the Congolese and potical and social forces into reforms talks to localize (tropicalize) the democracy model, to making it more suitable to the entire Congolese “ethnics” toward more stability and inclusion, national prosperity and individual human development, justice and fairness.


Rogers

Anonymous said...

I KNOW THIS ELECTION WAS NOT PERFECT ,BUT THERE IS NO WAY SUCH A DIVIDED OPPOSITION WAS GOING TO WIN AGAINST A WELL FINANCED AND ORGANISED KABILA CAMPAIGN. SO MANY UDPS SUPPORTERS ARE KABILA HEATERS HAVE BEEN INVADING THIS BLOG ... TO TRY TO DEMONSTRATE THAT CHISEKEDI HAS WON THE ELECTIONS BUT THEY KNOW VERY WELL THAT CHISEKEDI IS VERY UNPOPULAR IN THE EAST AND THE MAJORITY OF ELECTORATES ARE IN THE EAST OF THE COUNTRY. CONGO IS VERY IMPORTANT TO AFRICA AND THE AFRICAN AND CONGOLES PEOPLE ARE NOT GOIN TO GIVE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF SUCH A BIG COUNTRY TO A FRAIL AND SICK 80 YEARS OLD MAN. CHISEKEDI BELONGS IN A NURSING HOME AND THE CONGOLES PEOPLES ARE NOT STUPID TO PUT THEIRE FUTURE IN THE HAND OF A 80 YEARS OLD IRRESPONSIBLE ,UNPREDICTABLE,FRAIL AND SICK MAN. THE CONGOLES PEOPLES HAVE BEEN THROUGH SO MANY CHALLENGES AND A SICK 80 YEARS OLD MAN IS NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS THAT WE ARE FACING . I KNOW THE ANEMYS OF CONGO WANT CHISEKEDI TO WIN,BUT THE CONGOLES PEOPLE ARE NOT GOING TO ALOW THIS. CHISEKEDI BELONGS IN A NURSING HOME.

Anonymous said...

@Anon 11:42: you are missing the point. The only thing I am asking is for the CENI to confront its tally with polling stations results that all political parties witnesses have. If the votes counted by these witnesses broadly match the counting at CENI levels, then well done J kabila....you are the winner. If they do not match then your argument that most people are in the East and that they don't support Tshisekedi doesn't stand.....why does J Kabila resort to fraud if he is that popular with the majority of the Congolese people in the East. Also, a unique opposition candidate would not have made a difference, because J Kabila would have cheated anyway: the fraud would just have been blatant.
You seem to know alot about the Congolese as "they are not going to give responsability to a frail and sick 80 year-old man". The only thing you are forgetting is that elders are held to a very high esteem in Africa because of their supposed wisdom, knowledge. Additionally, young and healthy 40-year old J Kabila has disappointed his electorate with failed promises on peace, prosperity and stability in the East. It is ironic that the very region that has been most affected by recent instability and conflict will massively vote for the very person who has done little to solve their problems...Again, I am saying that Tshisekedi has won, J Kabila (like any other candidate) has to show that he won fair and square.
Some people have argued over the years that decent Congolese leaders don't last long as "enemies of Congo" don't want this country to be run by a patriotic and visionary leaders like Lumumba or LD Kabila. J kabila and Mobutu longevity prove that they are someone else's puppet and not for the Congolese people.

Tony said...

Just saw the reading of the provisional figures this evening on rtnc.

I do not understand the diplomats who are asking from the president of the CENI to read the results of the 11 candidates for the 33.000 poling statons. If this takes one second per figure, the man should read for more then 100 hours.

The fact that he has to read has to do with the fact that the website of CENI has been hacked. The way this site was hacked was very impressive. So can you imagine what it would mean that they publish the results of the 33.000 poling stations on the website and afterwards, some clever guys go and chenge those figures?

Any way, at the end all figures shall be published and everything can be controlled, so where is the problem?

Anonymous said...

@Toni: Nothing prevents CENI from giving a copy of a reconciled master file (in Excel or Access format) with the 33 000 polling stations information to the different parties to this process.

Anonymous said...

Not expecting MONUSCO to take actions like the UN did in Cote d'Ivoire, since the SRSG Roger Meece, and previous US Ambassador to the DRC during the last elections in 2006 (what a coincidence !!) and used to present himself as Kabila's political mentor and advisor.

The political opposition is right, Roger Meece should be replaced once the elections are completed. His job is done.

Anonymous said...

MPL wrote:
There is one certainty, CENI has succeeded in unifying a divided opposition. Further more by its actions it has succeeded in shifting people like myself from undecided towards the opposition, which I did not support. However, injustice brings resentment. Is this the start of a congolese spring?

Rich said...

CENI has published the 3rd batch of compiled results. Kabila's lead has increased with another 48% of the results remaining to be published by Tueasday 6th Dec 2011. Almost 2 Million votes is now the advance J Kabila has on tshisekedi. If the opposition was united, we would be talking a different story now since the race would have been tighter...

Also I note with satisfaction from radio okapi that Ngoie Mulunda has promised to give breakdown at polling station level.

http://radiookapi.net/actualite/2011/12/04/rdc-la-ceni-publie-les-troisiemes-resultats-partiels-de-la-presidentielle/

Rich said...

Break down of compiled results at polling station levels... I can anticipate that there will be no massive fraud to be discovered there.

I think the election was not well organised but the compiled results are actually Congolese votes.

Someone was talking about elders being held in high respect in Congo. I would like to disagree slightly since I have personally had to physically intervene to stop a mob from lynching an elderly couple who was acuused of being witches. I know this may not apply as the standard but we are not talking about social here we are talking about politics and it is a fact that the older generation of Congolese politician has NO POSITIVE LEGACY to boast to the younger generation so they can just keep it shut and we should be fine.

Rich

Anonymous said...

The third round of preliminary results is out:

http://radiookapi.net/actualite/2011/12/04/rdc-la-ceni-publie-les-troisiemes-resultats-partiels-de-la-presidentielle/

Kabila is holding on to his lead with 1,538,900 votes ahead of Tshisekedi. With over 72% of the results from Katanga reported and only 27% of Kin's results reported, the gap should narrow significantly on Monday. Is Tshisekedi maintains his high winning margins in the Kasais and in Bas-Congo and improves somewhat on his showing in Province Orientale (he is not competitive in the Kivus, especially in Sud-Kivu), he has a good chance of taking the lead and keep it.

It will be helful is the CENI could breakdown the results by "territoire". That would help is projecting the trendlines. Anyways, let's hope the CENI will keep its promise to release detailed results by poling sites.

Let's wait and see.

Anonymous said...

In all fairness, nobody expected Tshisekedi to catalyse the aspirations of so many Congolese the way he did. I personnally wasn't convinced. However, the qualities for which he is disliked by the West are exactly what endeared him to his countrymen, particularly the Congolese diaspora, responsible for the day to day survival of their families back home. Kabila's only 40 years old, he can try and come back in 2016. He should play fair to avoid any bloodshed. I'm very optimistic and do not think he would want to hold on to power seeing how Kinshasa has repudiated him and his associates. Why? Because they see them flaunting their indecent wealth everyday while the majority of them can't even secure one meal per day for themselves and their children.
Lusamba

Anonymous said...

@Rogers, I'm sorry to say but your analysis is so anachronic and passé it doesn't reflect the evolution of that country in recent years, especially after the war of agression it has suffered at the hands of Rwanda and Uganda under the guise of a rebellion or civil war as the western media likes to report -how can it be a civil war when all the belligerants were armed by and fighting external powers? There is a revival of Congolese citizenship and identity that moves across tribal lines today. The election results - even if they are tempered with - will demonstrate that Tshisekedi was massively voted in Bas-Congo, Equateur and Kinshasa (in addition to his stronghold, the two Kasai) so your argument to partition the country doesn't really stand. One more thing, the current Constitution provides for a federal, decentralised state, with more than twice the number of provinces...
Lusamba

Vishal Jobanputra said...

They all know how it is being complied and west is backing whom? dont know why they are spending so much money for show off? I guess its not yet democracy it is yet a Kingdom

Nkunda said...

Jason,

Are you aware if the 3,000 Rwandan troops who entered the DRC in 2009 ever left? Did operation Umoja Wetu officially end? Or are these "rebels without borders" still camping there, waiting for possible orders?

Rich said...

Crunching the numbers...

An analysis proposed by a Congolese news paper following the provisional results published so far.

Sunday night, when the Rev. Daniel Ngoy Mulunda began the publication of partial results, he came under fire from the opposition who wanted the partial publication of results to include the number people enrolled those who voted and void ballots cast for each candidate. This suggestion was also supported by the Catholic Church through the National Episcopal Conference of Congo (CENCO).

From what has been published so far, Bas-Congo has the highest compilation rate (86.29%) followed by Maniema (73.10%), Kasai Oriental (65.44%) and Kasai Occidental (60.38%). It is obvious for the first two provinces to have the highest compilation rates since they are the least populated out of the 11 provinces the DRC has. The lowest compilation rate by polling station is in Kinshasa (27.44% or 2,836 polling stations compiled for the capital city). This is due to the fact that Kinshasa, on top of being one of the most populated city/province in the country, it has only four main compilation centres to deal with ballots from 10,334 polling stations! One can guess the nightmare in these compilation centres!!!

Rev. Ngoy Mulunda admitted that so far the results published were aggregated. However, he confirmed that on Tuesday, December 6, 2011, he will publish provisional results for the 11 candidates by polling centres. He said this maybe tedious, but necessary to remove any scepticism in the minds of politicians and especially the opposition.

Kabila is ahead of Tshisekedi with 4,841,650 votes against 3,401,650

Thus, after 52.92% of polling stations have been compiled, early trends indicate that Joseph Kabila Kabange is ahead with a consolidated total of 4,841,650 votes against far 3.401.6501 for Etienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba. When you map these results, you would note that the incumbent maximised his votes in Katanga where he made a score of 1,862,315 votes, in Province Orientale where he gained 683,158 votes so far, in Bandundu, where he led the way with 478,333 votes. The advantage is that Kabila has done well in the provinces that have a relatively high weighting in terms of number of population or indeed registered voters. Of the five provinces with a high weighting, Kabila made leads in Katanga, Province Orientale and Bandundu and the gap between him and tshisekedi is quite staggering since the ratio of their score ranges between 1 and 10.

Continuing...

Rich said...

As for Etienne Tshisekedi, so far he has done well in two provinces with higher weighting in terms of registered voters, in Kinshasa and Equateur. In Kinshasa, with only 22% of the results compiled he has earned around 393,617 votes whilst J Kabila has only managed half of that score (174,032). In Equateur tshisekedi has so far 304,042 votes against 104,187 votes for Joseph Kabila. Given these statistics, it is possible to anticipate an improvement in tshisekedi overall score since he can still increase his ascension as the results from Kinshasa keeps trickling in and that both the two Kasais are far from finished hence increasing his chance to catch up with J Kabila.
To finish, It should be noted that compared to 2006, Joseph Kabila has significantly improved his score in the West (Bas-Congo, Equateur) and even in the city of Kinshasa. It is quite natural that the two Kasai have strongly voted tshisekedi. It seems to me like the biggest loser will be Kamerhe since he has not managed to commend any lead from any of what we thought would be his natural fief… adding to that, he has been severely denigrated by tshisekedi in recent days meaning that, unlike my previous comments where I suggested he may establish himself as the leader of the opposition if he scores well during these elections… now it all looks like even within the opposition he may end up being rejected like a bat (not a bird nor a rat?).

Rich

Anonymous said...

@Rich: Do not kid yourself. The election has been organised for J Kabila's to win. The numbers are only an excuse to justify what was decided long ago. This is probably why CENI won't release any detailed information until final results are out and have confirmed J Kabila as the winner on 17 Dec. Kabila beats Tshisekedi with a ratio of 10 to 1 in his stronghold but Tshisekedi beats Kabila 5 to 1 in his...please. Katangans vote overwhelmingly for a fellow Katangan (Kabila) but South Kivatians do NOT vote overwhelmingly for a fellow South Kivutian (Kamerhe) after 5 years of a disappointing leadership for South Kivu ?.

Anonymous said...

thanks, rich.

i am personally really looking forward to those poll by poll breakdowns.

you also said ngoy finds doing so "tedious". its fairly standard in virtually every democracy that considers itself one to do so thus i find it disquieting if that's his attitude- to say the least of posting them after the tabulation (Violation 2 of democratic procedure) and provisionally (violation 3).

is this indeed his words? "tedious"?

it would also be interesting for observers to focus their investigations in three provinces: Katanga, one of the Kasai's, and South Kivu.

it seems a measure of what i will just term inflation, coupled with the vast majority of irregularities noted, has occurred in these provinces.


thanks,
jose

Anonymous said...

also, while the tabulations are not done, the total turnout for this election is very low.

which, ofcourse, is not a good sign about the mood of the congolese going into this election.

jose

Anonymous said...

European Union observers have all now been pulled from the field and are on plains to Brussels and Paris tonight and tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

It is amazing how so many people generally well disposed are advocating a “divine" intervention from the West to “save” an electoral process slowly and surely bent to a catastrophe of unbelievable proportions. A WASTE OF TIME! I hate to disabuse those hopes. It should be obvious for all that it is not in the INTEREST of the West (EU, Canada, Japan & US) and its main partners AU, South Africa, PRC China etc ... to save the process. To the West, it is better to see the incoming disaster than to see the opposition and mainly Tshisekedi triumph at the polls. But why, the ENLIGHTENED MASTERS closed their eyes and their voices throughout the utterly broken process of which they knew very well the limits. They are bitterly disappointed to see the Old Man Tshisekedi come so strong. They are certainly not SURPRISED to see how the outgoing is coming all out with tanks and all the repressive apparatus of the state to HIGHJACK the election again. Having vomited him for over the last 3 years because of the Chinese Contracts, the ENLIGHTENED MASTERS are beginning to backpedal and to walk backwards, thus THE GREAT SILENCE OF THE TOADS. They are now seeking to re-impose him again with a hypocrite deafening CHORUS call to ALL to accept once again the manipulated results of the polls, to ACCEPT THE INACCEPTABLE one more time as in 2006. But as every African knows, the SILENCE OF THE TOADS often presages an UNHEARD catastrophe. Remember the last time this occurred was with P.E. Lumumba, now 50 years after, it's the same dead end with the Old Warrior Tshisekedi, UNCORRUPTIBLE and diabolized for standing FIRM for the Congolese much abused people. The pleading that is reverberating in this blog is being lost in face of what the ENLIGHTENED MASTERS fear most: the FEAR OF THE TRUTH... Tunisia, Egypt and Libyan have given the bright example of the context when the pleading CEASED with the people definitive resolution. It is also possible for Congo, this time. So much for the so called political alternation by ballot!!! A joke…
-Xebo

Anonymous said...

hi jason, i saw my comment was removed after it was published yesterday as first comment.

han yu said...

Further to my post yesterday, foreign diplomats have asked election commissioner Ngoy Mulunda why he is invalidating entire polling stations in Kinshasa but not in other provinces. Apparently, the commission has now said he would not invalidate votes in Kinshasa - observers are waiting to see if the disqualified bundles of votes will be entered into the system now
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han yu said...

while the tabulations are not done, the total turnout for this election is very low. guild wars 2 gold
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emily said...

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