Painting by Cheri Samba

Lokuta eyaka na ascenseur, kasi vérité eyei na escalier mpe ekomi. Lies come up in the elevator; the truth takes the stairs but gets here eventually. - Koffi Olomide

Ésthetique eboma vélo. Aesthetics will kill a bicycle. - Felix Wazekwa

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Preliminary analysis of results

Yesterday we got the fifth installment of election results. The election commissioner says we are now at 89,29% of total votes. While they did not want to declare a winner until Friday (they have postponed the results), it is virtually impossible for Tshisekedi still to win. That is, if these results are correct.

By my back-of-the-envelope calculus, Kabila now has 8,353,573 votes and Tshisekedi 5,927,528, with only around two million votes left to count.

So what does a preliminary analysis of the votes that have been counted say?

Here are the current figures by province, with turnout and Joseph Kabila's percentages for both rounds of 2006 elections.


Province
Kabila
Kabila 2006 1st round
Kabila 2006 2nd
Tshisekedi
Turnout
Bandundu
63%
3%
40%
20%
57%
Bas-Congo
20%
14%
25%
74%
56%
Equateur
10%
2%
2,8%
36%
51%
Kasai-Occ
15%
11%
23%
79%
50%
Kasai-Or
20%
36%
32%
71%
50%
Katanga
90%
77%
93%
7%
68%
Kinshasa
30%
14%
32%
64%
68%
P Orientale
62%
70%
79%
14%
62%
Maniema
87%
90%
98%
3%
57%
North Kivu
37%
77%
96%
22%
62%
South Kivu
45%
95%
98%
9%
69%

 There are a few comments to make, all with the proviso that these are preliminary results.

Kabila scores surprisingly high in Bandundu - he did receive the endorsement of Antoine Gizenga, who helped him get a good result in the province in 2006. But even then, he only got 40% of the votes there - he has increased his score to 63% of votes now. While there are tensions between the Luba (Tshisekedi's community) and other groups in the province, this result is still striking.

Kabila also scores surprisingly well in areas with large Luba communities - the Kasais, Kinshasa and Lubumbashi. In the Kasais, it is striking that the turnout remained low, barely higher than 2006, when many boycotted the vote. Considering how immensely popular Tshisekedi is in part of these provinces, this is strange (but is surely linked to the violence on election day). It is also strange that Tshisekedi would get almost the same results as Bemba in Katanga - there is a very large Luba community there, and tensions between southerners and northerners (Kabila's community). As for Kinshasa, few people in this opposition stronghold thought Kabila would be able to hold onto 30% of the vote there.

People in South Kivu have also been scratching their heads about Kabila's score there - he has fallen out of favor with many in the province, and Kamerhe was considered to be a favorite by many. However, there is probably an urban bias against Kabila, and most of the people I have spoken to are in urban areas. Equateur is also a bit puzzling, as it is difficult to see how the president gained in popularity in this opposition bastion, even if he is still at a low 10%.

If the figures are accurate (despite all of the many allegations of fraud and rigging), then Kabila will have won the elections by gaining support in the West of the country, even as he suffered a steep decline in support in the East. It will also show that his tactic of dividing the opposition worked - a coalition of Tshisekedi, Kamerhe and Kengo would have beaten Kabila, if they had been able to carry over their votes to a common opposition candidate.

Again, this is all still speculation, since there final results have not been announced, and these figures are still steeped in controversy as thick as Masisi mud.

56 comments:

George said...

Jason, I know Congo very well and I can confirm that your analysis is absolutely correct. Mr. Mulunda and his CENI's results are coming from some other place than the ballots count. In Congo people vote by tribe influence. It's impossible for KABILA to beat KAMERHE in South Kivu, for example. Furthermore KABILA can NEVER win in North Kivu where MBUSA NYAMWISI and KAMERHE are candidates. BALUBA of Katanga will NEVER vote for KABILA where TSHISEKEDI is a candidate, and they are more than 7% which CENI is giving Tshisekedi. WELCOME CONFLICT IF THIS ELECTION IS RIGGED!

zkaiyum said...

so far i have learnt from talking with local people Mr. kabila is no more and no way popular among congolese rather he is bluntly criticised by little school boys . how does he get that much vote all over the country ?

Nicolas said...

Thank you Jason for this analysis. I have had a look at it from even a more abstract level, comparing participation and total population in each province. If you consider the a lower population density to be a higher logistical challenge, it is even more worrying. Katanga for instance has a total population of 5.6M and a density of 11/sq Km. They pulled out 3M votes. Kinshasa with 10M and over 1000/sq Km will be below 2M once compilation will be completed. Same partern, even if less exagerated, can be found between provinces that are "pro" and provinces that are "against" the current regime. Please have a look at this as you seem to be well informed and tell us what you think about it.

Gabriello Princip said...

and the last sentence may be the most prophetic of all!

Anonymous said...

I agree the bandundu and Kinshasa results look odd. About the east I have no idea though again your analysis of Katanga sounds spot on. In Kin there did seem to be very few votes for a third candidate and in the polling stations I saw - in Mont Amba and Tshangu - tshi-tshi had about double Kabila's score so about a third is not so unrealistic??? maybe that helped Kabila hold up. My sceptisism relates more to how the opposition seemed to be feeling after the result. They thought they had won, and pesumably that was based on reports from other parts of the country. Most of the stories are pretty fanciful but friends in CENI say there are various points where the result could have been changed after the count.

blaise said...

I think it should be fairly easy to show rigging: how many people were registered to vote, how many actually voted, and stuff like that. Beside, every center published his own results, why the opposition doesn't do their own compilation and compare it with the ceni? We cry out rigging but we don't demonstrate it. So far all I see is speculation.
So far the catholic church which was supposed to be the light choose once again to look the other way, exactly like they did during Hitler-Mussolini tenure, they make me sick!@!!!

@digitaldjeli said...

Thanks for this Jason..

The DRC Red Cross had training from DREF before the elections. Violence was anticipated since before last May http://thinkafricapress.com/drc/fight-or-flight-planning-disaster-drc-elections

Anonymous said...

We just want results polling station by polling station as was available 2006.

Anonymous said...

From the figures so far it seems Kabila is destined to "win" these elections. Actually what is happening at the moment is the populace is being made aware of this fact gradually until finally the eventual winner (kabila) is officially declared.

If i'm not wrong emissaries are shifting from one candidate to the other while post election deals are being struck and the common mwananchi (citizen) will still remain impoverished and dejected.

Mwafika.

Aloysius Horn said...

Clearly, Tshisekedi would win if there was a second round. The theft of this election really happened when, as I understand, Kabila pressured the legislature to eliminate the "deuxième tour." If the constitution and legislature of this country is that weak, it's doomed, anyway. Where was international pressure when it was needed to prevent that from happening and where was foresight in drafting this country's constitution?

Omar said...

Some already spotted high possibility of inflated results in Katanga - 2nd round of 2006, by the way. And at the time, no plane with ballot papers arrived post election day with unclear whereabouts.

Results are compiled as they come to "Centre national de traitement", in theory. Results from cities come first (those with highest scrutiny by observers and political parties witness). Results from remote places (traditionally those most surprising IF you can go through polling station results) come later.

I don't fully understand why some Provinces have not been fully compiled earlier - IF there was a central organization of results cooking, this would allow to compensate or inflate gap between candidates, by changing last results, spread throughout the country, that are NOT as well known.

Any comment on Oriental Province results? I thought the opinion had drastically shifted away from earlier (end of transition) full support of the incumbent President.

Anonymous said...

I see there has been a lot of pressure on the catholic church to disclose 'their' results. But I don't think the Catholic church had the role nor the capacity to do a parallel compilation authoritative enough to be useful as a parallel final result. They had 30.000 observers, yes, but only 6000 of them were trained to systematically track results, and they only had a fraction of that in terms of actual results posted on the bureaux de vote. If you have results for say 1500 BV, this will only give you trends, not official results, and the only real use of that is that you can compare them with the CENI figures IF (and only if) the latter publishes the disaggregated figures. So what the catholic church said, on the basis of its figures, is say : (1) both camps must stop saying that they have won by a large margin because that doesn't look realistic (cf the image of the fast speed train with no parties standing on the breaks) and (2) CENI, you must publish the detailed results so that we can do our monitoring job and see whether there was fraud at the level of the compilation centers. Does that turn its position regarding this election into a Hitler case? I think not, and find the comparison quite inappropriate.

Anonymous said...

@ Nicolas
You raise the point about participation and total population of each province: "Katanga for instance has a total population of 5.6M and a density of 11/sq Km. They pulled out 3M votes. Kinshasa with 10M and over 1000/sq Km will be below 2M once compilation will be completed." But you have to remember that in Kinshasa only 3.2M people registered to vote, whereas 4.5M registered in Katanga. Whether this points to age of the population in Kinshasa, propensity to register or something else, the important thing to know is that the votes counted in Kinshasa is around 68% of people registered. And in Katanga it's the same. As for the Kasais, it seems around 60% of registered voters voted - not that low, is it?

Anonymous said...

Take the concrete example of Kananga where there were 67 voting centers. On the morning of the election at many centers there was tension because some of the witnesses felt they were not being dealt with fairly. At centers throughout Kananga between 10 and 11AM fires were started by angry "witnesses". As a result 11 centres de vote of 67 were closed and never able to report their results. Two other centers never opened. Because of these incidents many people were afraid to go to the polls and so the turnout was unexpectedly low. Of those who did vote in Kananga 90% voted #11.

Finally the compilation center in Kananga had figures for less 400 of the 508 voting bureaux in the conscription. Extrapolating from those figures, one can calculate that well over 50,000 people who would have likely voted for #11 were disenfranchised.
And this is only one example.

Mungwa Pierre

Rich said...

Thanks Jason -

Looking at some of these figures it seems there is something not very clear and it is important for CENI to clear any doubt before publishing the remaining batch of the compiled results...

I made a similar observation when looking into some of these numbers...

Rich

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the analysis. In the text messages and results released on Tuesday right after the election the opposition came up with a 57% participation rate which is close to the participation rate of CENI which stands at about 60% right now. This indicates to me that both CENI and opposition are working from the same set of data but one or both side is changing numbers around

Anonymous said...

When you examine the first results on 16% of the vote, and you extrapolate to 100%, Etienne Tshisekedi wins the election with 800,000 votes. INEC has eliminated the voices of Tshisekedi and added voice to Kabila. We expect the results for office desktop to make it visible.

The church has PV on 16 000 polling stations so it can determine the final result with a very small margin of error. 25% of voters are a good indicator of the final result

Anonymous said...

Kabila's results in Kinshasa should not surprise anyone who took the time to speak with regular people in that big city (not political activists). After a recent trip (summer 2011), I noticed that a good number of Kinois were impressed by the few infrastructure projects realized in Kinshasa. Although these Kinois were not enthousiastic about Kabila, they told themselves he had done more than the only other reference president they have in mind, Mobutu. They were then wondering whether another president other than Kabila would continue with similar or better projects for Kinshasa. At that point, it seemed to me that Kabila, though not loved, had done enough to sow doubts in the minds of a portion of the electorate, doubts about the alternatives. Sometimes doubts or fears about the alternatives is all that an incumbent needs to scrape a win.

Overall though, contrary to Jason and many others on this discussion board, the numbers do not look that suspicious to me. I find it overly simplistic to put so much weight in tribal determinism when analyzing Congolese politics. Congolese politics of the last few years is more complex than tribalism and regionalism. People seem to forget that in each province Kabila has the backing of some powerful members of the powerful tribes. Not all leaders of the Bashi support Kamhere and neither do all the Rega leaders. The same can be said of the Luba.

I know that the clouds that hang over the electoral process force analysts and opposition activists to question everything that the CENI says. But I hope that clear-minded political analysts will make the mental effort to reach beyond the easy explanations and try to understand the results from the perspective of political dynamics.

Identity politics is certainly predominant in Congolese politics. But it is not the only factor. If it were, I don't think Konde Vila Kikanda would have chosen to run in Goma instead of his native Bas-Congo(?).

The opposition at this point should focus on building a governing coalition in the parliament. I would like to see a divided government for the next five year. That would be the best way to control the excesses of the presidency.

Jason - Your tourn-out numbes seem too high, based on the actual numbers released by the CENI, especially for Katang, Kin and SK. I had lower numbers: 66%, 55% and 60%, respectively. Can you double check?

Anonymous said...

It is intriguing that out of a population of 5.6 M, 4.5 M are registrered to vote. This means that there are 1.1 M under 18 in Katanga. One need not be a demographer to tell what is wrong with this picture.

Anonymous said...

Foul play is not the only possible explanation here. It could be that the population of Katanga is simply under-estimated (and that that of Kinshasa is over-estimated). Remember the DRC has not had a census in decades.

Anonymous said...

We just want results polling station by polling station as was available 2006.
Registered voters numbers increased on average by 25% in provinces that were thought to be favourable to the incumbent....now I am not a conspiracy theorist but I find it strange that these numbers increased only in those area; particularly when considering that they not as safe as the western part of the DRC.

Anonymous said...

fine discussion folks but, at the end of the day, Anon from today at 1:12pm hits it on the nail:

1. We need poll by poll results and ASAP
2. We ALSO need voter + voter #

Once these two things have been released, whoever wins can triumphantly claim it to the world.

anything short of this and the congolese would have us all believe in the santa clause and his elvin helpmates in the north pole.

diplomats MUST demand this from Ngoy and without question, hesitation or delay. if the congolese authorities at ceni cannot provide this run of the mill, standard statistics from an election that had all but 12 million people vote than they should not run elections at all.

i could see it if this was the US, or Brazil, or India with millions upon millions of voters and a bevy of local, regional, provincial, and national seats all up at once.

that is not the case here in the congo, it won't be for likely quite some time, and these simple basics should be required before any certification of these results.

i understand the need for all this prognostication and analysis and yada yada yada but let's just all get clear on these results before we dive into the analysis.

there should be nothing to hide right? we all know kabila is going to win because he's the best thing since Mandela for the congolese right? ET is this old, senile, and emotive bull dog that shouldn't even get the keys to a damn city let alone to the sinking ship of state in the congo right? the rest of us crying foul at the idea of gaining 90% in ANY province for ANY candidate in ANY election are a bunch of drunken fools right?

great, well, let's just prove that DEFINITIVELY by releasing these two data items and let's call it a day and move on to the congo's 20,000 other problems.

jose

Rich said...

Please please please,

Stop saying Katanga has a population size estimated at 5.6 Million! That's NOT CORRECT. If you insiste with this figure, why don't you provide the source?

Did you know, for instance, that at the DRC latest census in 1984, the population of Shaba now Katanga was estimated at 3,979,600?

I don't know about you but I think we are here for the Congolese cause but also to learn from one another... to persist in making the same mistake or refusing to admit fact may have more to do with an emotional boredom than an intellectual one...

Rich

Anonymous said...

Come on Rich....You are dying to give us the statistic of the Institut national de la Statistique de Kinshasa (Limete) that put Katangan population at over 10 million...although its an estimate from 1999....I am sure that the Congolese government use your statistics for their demographic and electoral purposes !
For intellectual argument, could you give us the estimate of the Congolese population as a whole by the institute....I just want to compare it with the current consensus of between 65 et 71 million.

David Aronson said...

Hmmm...
I've got slightly different projected turnout numbers, particularly in the Kasais and Orientale. See www.congoresources.org for my totals.

Rich said...

Anonymous 3:27

An estimate produced in 1999 (projection) can be as accurate and reliable as an estimate produced today...

I am sorry but I'm happy to let you continue camping on your IGNORANCE. At least I've tried...

Rich

Rich said...

David -

Thanks a lot for sharing the source. Using your weighted total votes I came up with the following turnout rate:

Bdd 56
BasCo 54
Eq 49
KaOcc 62
KaOr 54
Kat 67
Kin 68
Man 56
NoK 60
ProvOr 49
SKiv 67
DRC 58

Looking at the numbers, I'm just not too sure about Prov Orientale... 49% seems a bit too low and I'm not sure if we are using the same denominator!

I used the CENI list:

Band 3,553,322
BasCo 1,502,939
Eq 3,960,643
Kas Oc 2,661,245
Kas Or 2,643,905
Kat 4,627,302
Kin 3,287,745
Man 874,809
NoKiv 3,003,246
ProvOr 3,886,524
SKiv 2,022,960

I followed the order given in your crosstab but usually provinces are in a different order from all the CENI documents ...

I just cannot wait to see the output by polling station and the minutes signed by all witnesses. From what I've heard they exist! But I guess we shall wait and see...

Rich

Rich said...

Presidential Elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Press Statement
Mark C. Toner
Deputy Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC

December 6, 2011

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The United States remains deeply committed to supporting the democratic development of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The presidential and legislative elections that took place as scheduled on November 28 are an important milestone for the Congo. The large voter turnout and enthusiasm for these elections broadly reflect the determination of the Congolese people for a peaceful and democratic reconstruction of their country. The broad participation of observers, comprising the international community, Congolese civil society, political parties, and election officials was also welcome.

The publication of the results is also an essential step in the electoral process. Official election tallies from each polling station have already been given to observers and witnesses present in those stations. The accurate and timely publication of vote counts by polling station in itself will contribute greatly toward a transparent process.

Violence has no place in the democratic process. The United States urges all Congolese political leaders and their supporters to act responsibly and to renounce violence, and reminds the Government of the DRC of its responsibility to provide security for the Congolese population.

The United States will continue to follow the situation in the DRC closely, in particular the security conditions on the ground and the efforts to successfully conclude the electoral process.

PRN: 2011/2072

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/12/178350.htm

Rich

Anand said...

@Rich - What a meaningless jumble of horseshit. "Deeply committed?" Really? So committed that the Deputy Spokesperson of the Office of the Spokesperson of the US State Department has issued a statement...a week after elections took place. My God. Glad such a high ranking person is on the job. And why do I have to search all over to find response from Ambassador Entwistle? Is he even meeting with the UN folks and the Russian ambassador to see what can be done to calm things? Can Secretary Clinton, I don't know, get on the news maybe...and talk... "Official election tallies from each polling station have already been given to observers and witnesses present in those stations." Is that even true, or grandly overstated? Anyway...rant concluded. Thanks for the "reminders" and for "following the situation" Mr. Deputy Spokesperson. Glad you posted this Rich. Despite my ranting, it's important to see this stuff.

Rich said...

Anand -

I can agree with you to a degree but in all this, it looks to me, that the Congolese opposition did not help its own chances...

Tshisekedi's own inflamatory and irresponsible rhetoric discredited him as a reliable statesperson.

I hope the opposition will learn from this and comeback for the next election with a more responsible attitude.

That said, I still need to be convinced that the figures compiled so far can be crosschecked and substantiated by minutes signed by independant observers in polling stations.

Rich

David Aronson said...

We're all getting slightly different numbers. Probably my arithmetic here and there is wrong. So I'm taking the total votes cast for each province, dividing by the percentage of districts that have reported in, then dividing that number by the number of registered voters. So, eg., Orientale, I get 1,830 votes (in thousands), divide by 90 percent, equals 2,033 projected total votes. Divide by 3,886 registered voters, and you get 52 percent. Otherwise, we seem to be on same page, I think.

Anand said...

Rich - I am solely referring to the US position on, and involvement in, the electoral process. Not your poll numbers, voting figures, opposition vs. incumbency, or anything else. Sorry if I gave that impression. I am just bothered by what I see as a lack of anticipation and involvement on the part of the State department and the US government in general.

Anonymous said...

what did you expect, Anand?

a state department that actually knows what its doing?

i think the basic american consensus at this point is the obama administration hasn't exactly been that "change we can believe in" for damn near everything at this point so if you were hoping for more vigor on foreign policy count this at just yet another let down for mr hopey changey.

the policy of this administration, as but one example, continues to be rendition even after o's strenuous calls to end it during the whole of his campaign so it shouldn't be surprising we get drift, incoherence, bureaucratic infighting, a lack of coordination with other donors, and just your typical "congo fatigue" emanating from the mandarins at foggy bottom.

congo, for all its allure (and I mean that in the holistic sense), just ain't on the radar or a priority given we gain nothing, really, from either an unstable or stable congo. perhaps if al shabbab or boko horam begin to collaborate with the mai mai or fdlr or fnl to engage in mineral trade to get a dirty bomb or something and then, perhaps, we'd see more interest.

hate to be blunt but if congo was a priority we wouldn't be where we are now.

and if republicans take charge in november? well, given the "cut it to the bone" mood with that gang I really do hope congolese leaders have a plan b for even HUMANITARIAN aid.

if repugs can cut grandma off medicare and take an axe to unions I have no doubt they will take one hard and long look at corrupt african states and hang them to dry without question or mercy.

should they win, the congo will literally disappear from reality as far as official DC is concerned.

jose

Anonymous said...

Can someone explain the end game here by the Brits and others on the "poll by poll" request of CENI?

So, placing aside the volatility of what happens on the 9th, what happens if we get that result and, ofcourse, this result does not jive with the 9th results which means probable cause for fraud?

What happens next? I realize it goes to the Supreme Court at that point but if we have probable cause for fraud and the Supreme Court actually rules the elections were fraudelent based on the evidence what, well, happens?

Does the law call for new elections? Would it be settled by a vote for Prez in the National Assembly in this case?

I've read the DRC constitution and it isn't clear what happens if a vote must be annulled or if there is a tie, etc.

Anyone know?

Anonymous said...

@Rich:
An estimate produced in 1999 (projection) can be as accurate and reliable as an estimate produced today
its not the first time, and sadly not the last, that a supposedly scientific work is used to justify political objectives. Rich could have saved me some time and started by saying that he is a proud Katangan (which I assume he is, based on his surname) and a staunch Kabila supporter for tribal reasons or economic ones, or any other reason. There is nothing wrong with that....just be honest.

Anonymous said...

What will happen is Kabila will be announced the winner,Tshisekedi will blow hot air, chest thump here and there get offered a "powerful" post created for him in the eventual coalition government.

And the congolese people will back be right where we started.

Sorry for being a pessimist but thats what happens when we put so much faith and value in our african leaders instead of working in building and empowering institutions like parliament,judiciary etc

Mwafrika

Anonymous said...

An article that summarises well issues relating to these elections.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ben-affleck/averting-disaster-in-the-congo_b_1135572.html?ref=yahoo&ir=Yahoo

Rich said...

@ Anand,

I am a bit frazzled by your reaction!

Just to clarify, in my message I was not trying to associate your comment to my position. I agreed with the fact that, you as an American citizen, were frustrated with what appears to you as a lack of firm commitment from your government Re the DRC situation... The rest of my comment was just my opinion and I did say, "...it looks to me..."

So, there was no intention what so ever to take advantage of your comment to back up poll numbers or the opposition Vs encumbancy circus etc... and I am sorry too if that is how my comment read from your end.

Rich

Anonymous said...

Another interesting view from the International Crisis Group (ICG).
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/africa/dr-congo-saving-the-elections.aspx

Anonymous said...

Another article, compelling from former BBC/France 24 correspondant in Kinshasa, Arnaud Zajtman. Sorry, its in French
http://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/article/704987/il-est-moins-une-a-kinshasa.html

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Mwafrica.

Actually, I believe its probably best Etienne and UDPS, after a period of violence ofcourse, get something tangible and they should take whatever it is.

One cannot build strong institutions in the Congo without a thorn in your side opposition. Indeed, its basically impossible to do so without it. In my view, that and taking their lessons from this election and aggressively engaging in next year's local elections is the best thing for UDPS.

They should take a page from Republicans and basically block, frustrate, and severely water down anything Kabila attempts- and I do mean everything. The whole idea would be to make it appear to the Congolese that Kabila and his "alliance" are basically useless by slowing or blocking things and then, in 2016, campaign on the "do nothing" nature of his party. It would probably be good to also investigate corruption as well.

So, yes, I actually do think having an aggressive party of "NO"- led by UDPS and others- would be very good for the Congolese so as to clip Kabila's power. The Presidency, as an institution, is simply too powerful in the Congo and as long as that is the case we won't have any real change.

Does anyone know anything about the UDPS or UNC's position on devolution vs centralization? I realize the "opposition" isn't really an ideological one and more this kind of agglomeration of ethnic/tribal interests but does anyone know their basic position on this?

I did once hear Vital say he believes that a strong state is only possible in the Congo if there was more power given to provinces to run their own affairs so I guess I am clear on UNC but what of UDPS? MLC? UREC?

@jose- I agree that the Congo is basically on the lowest of priorities for Americans but we do give the country alot of our tax dollars. Thus, I think its incumbent on activists here and England (that supplies the most aid) to begin to pressure our Representatives to start demanding real things from the Congolese or risk losing aid. In fact, I'd argue its probably better to STOP humantarian aid altogether and condition aid based on clear governance benchmarks. That may sound cruel but this country is rich enough to educate, feed, and take care of its own people- the problem is the horrible leadership. I'd actually be interested in campaigning on some kind of "Congo Aid Law" that enshrines conditionality into law. As you state, right now we have too many agencies dealing with the Congo with too many programs that conflict and that encourage Kinshasa to pick and choose what they are accountable to. That has to stop. I'd also make sure a law like that effects everything that comes from the IMF and World Bank that perhaps sunsets the grant. So, in like 10 years, all assistance from the IMF/World Bank to the Congo will cease and at that point the Congolese will have to do what every other nations does and go to private markets to raise money it can't raise from domestic sources.

So, I'd be good with a kind of "tough love" approach to the Congo.

Mel

Anand said...

@Rich - No worries bro. We're both just clarifying. I wasn't sure what you meant exactly in your first sentence, "I can agree with you to a degree but in all this, it looks to me, that the Congolese opposition did not help its own chances..." Or what it seemed from your end I was complaining about. I think we're on the same page now. Electronic communication is this way sometimes. Speaking of which, can I get your email somehow? I have a few questions regarding a film project I am working on that you might be able to help me with.

@Jose - Can't disagree with much of what you said. Continued lack of US involvement, combined with generic press statements, just irks me. It's like watching the Dallas Cowboys coach give the same press conference for the 50th time, explaining why they lost.

@Mel - Intellectually I understand the argument of tying aid to meaningful reform in Congo. But cutting it off altogether is a tough one. Not agreeing or disagreeing, just still assessing that idea.

Vincent Harris said...

The key phrase here is "If the figures are accurate". Based on these preliminary results the Belgium diplomacy is pushing the international community to accept "the outcome" and to move on. Tony Gambino is proposing a diffent approach when he states: "The world must also avoid the temptation to paper over election irregularities and tolerate another Kabila term, even if won by hook and by crook, simply because that seems the path of least resistance. Our reading of Congo’s current politics leads us to conclude that such a strategy will not be stabilizing and could prove incendiary".

There are only two options.

Anonymous said...

@Mel - You cannot have a "party of No" under the Congolese semi-parliamentary system. That is because, in the DRC, a minority party cannot really block the legislative agenda of the majority. You are either governing or out of it completely. If UDPS and allies have a majority in parliament, then they will have the right to designate the PM and, hence, govern the country. If UDPS and allies have a majority only in the lower chamber of parliament, theirs would still be the governing coalition. In both cases, they cannot be a party of NO because they would be the "Government".

If however the opposition controls only the Senate, they can attempt to be the party on NO and frustrate the Government's initiatives. But, the way the Congolese constitution works, the Senate is a weak institution, legislatively speaking. That is due to the fact that, if the two chambers of parliament disagree on the final version of a bill, the version approved by the lower chamber will become law (this is what happened with the law creating the CENI).

Bottom line is, although the Congolese opposition can organize to be vocal in its criticism and maybe use parliamentary maneuvers to frustrate the actions of the Government, it cannot stop the majority from governing.

Rich said...

Anand -

Always refreshing to read from you brother...

To ensure this is done in a smooth way, I will have a chat with Jason to see if he can liaise us on the other side of planet Congosiasa. You can do the same from your end.

Rich

Anand said...

@Rich - I don't see a way to contact Jason as no email is listed in his profile. I'm sure he has both of our emails as blog moderator. If you can chat with him, I am perfectly fine with him sending you my email. I apprecaite that willingness to connect.

Anand

Rich said...

Sure I will do that.

If he is busy hence things are delayed you can always contact me using my intermediate email address yalala2007@yahoo.fr then we will make our way to the other side of the Congosiasa planet.

Anand to me it is an immense priviledge to connect.

Rich

Jason Stearns said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jason Stearns said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jason Stearns said...

@David:

Blogger Jason Stearns said...

I got my figure Kasai Occ turnout wrong (transcription error). As for the rest, I used the same math as you did. For Kasai Occ, for example, I counted all the votes current counted (1,591,454), projected total votes counted when the remaining 6% come in (1,693.036), then saw how much this was in percentage of total voters registered (2,661,000). The turnout was thus 64%. JK got 235,275 out of 1,591,454 (15%) and ET 1,260,454 (79%).

Jason Stearns said...

@All:

I apologize for not weighing in on or responding to recent comments. It's been busy covering elections. My silence does not imply an opinion, and I hope to get back in the mix in future posts.

Anonymous said...

Dear Jason,

Great to see the results, although provisional, per province. The next big step (obviously for the CENI, not you) will be the publication by polling stations, as these will allow observers to compare the official tally with theirs as well as check for incidents.

Obviously, any delays in the publication of the results by CENI should translate into a delay into the officilisation of the results by the Cour Supreme de Justice. Can the CSJ really have the time to review all the electoral dispute by then? Will independent observers and political parties be able to lodge electoral complaints in that timeframe?

As the 'electoral dispute resolution' was meant to be a part of the electoral assistance within the electoral cycle, it will be interesting to see the results (of the polls and off the dispute litigation as well as CSJ final decision)

Rich said...

The results by polling station are available but it will be a time consuming exercise to re-arrange them then cross check with the aggregated results... You may need a full time job to work on them.

Here is a link to the Bandundu results.

http://www.ceni.gouv.cd/resultats.aspx

Rich

Rich said...

There are CD and brochures containing the brack down of results by polling station. If you know someone in Kinshasa you can organise to obtain a copy of both and cross check the results quicker than using the online version...

From now on the opposition has the street or 10 days to appeal against the provisional results...

Rich

Anonymous said...

Hello! I have been reading your blog and appreciating your comments and insights into the elections. I have family currently living in Kinshasa and I used to live there myself. It is so nice to hear your perspective. Do you have more updates????

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