Painting by Cheri Samba

Lokuta eyaka na ascenseur, kasi vérité eyei na escalier mpe ekomi. Lies come up in the elevator; the truth takes the stairs but gets here eventually. - Koffi Olomide

Ésthetique eboma vélo. Aesthetics will kill a bicycle. - Felix Wazekwa

Monday, March 18, 2013

Amid good news, doubts

Two bits of good news broke today––first, Bosco Ntaganda turned himself in at the US embassy in Kigali. Apparently, he thought an almost sure prison sentence was better than his other options––the Rwandan government probably either forced him to hand himself over or he was so afraid of what would happen if they arrested him (or Makenga got a hold of him) that he made a run for the embassy.

The second piece of good news was the nomination of Mary Robinson as UN Special Envoy––as former Irish president and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, she has a higher profile than the other candidates in the running (Jean Ping and Said Djinnit had been floated).

But allow me to rain on the parade, and to join up these two pieces of information. Robinson was appointed as UN envoy in order to pilot the implementation of the recently-signed Framework Agreement. However, the agreement was very vague, consisting of two parts: an end to neighbors meddling in the Congo and reform of the Congolese state. Robinson will have to put meat on the its bones. However, if Kabila manages to strike a deal with Makenga's M23, then logic of the framework could easily fray: Kabila thought it was necessary to sign up to a relatively intrusive deal in order to bring an end to the M23 threat. Without the M23, Kabila no longer needs the Framework Agreement.

There is, of course, still some way to go before there is a deal between Makenga and Kabila. And even then, it is possible that donors could squeeze some water from that rock. But Robinson faces a steep climb.

59 comments:

Joel Wilhelm said...

Also, this:
http://livingtext.blogspot.com/2013/03/is-m23-conflict-illusion.html

Dave Tshim said...

The Congolese people have got an appointment with history... Though currently over-taken by events, there is room to hope for a brighter tomorrow, thanks to the people's resilience
Dave

James Serudonyori said...

I have been taken aback by the events in east congo. Infighting: Two M23 factions inflicting injuries on each other, lives of young boys being squandered for nothing! Then Runiga being arrested Nkunda way, now Ntaganda surrendering. Ntaganda entered Rwanda, in the face of orders to get arrested. He managed to elude his would be captors, or simply they let him pass, disgusted by twists and betrayals!
If Rwanda ever supported M23, the question would be: Why back unsustainable projects? Why waste human and material resources helping this, fighting this, etc? Are there are strategic thinkers in Kigali or you have people who wake up and take hasty decisions with frowining faces, with no institution to hold them to account?
Let us wait and see amount of beans that angry Ntaganda will spill

blaise said...

@James,
my opinion is that everybody doesn't share the same ideal.As long as humans are in charge, there will be greed and envy.
I don't think people will stay idle while they see their old brothers in arm getting fabulously rich just under their nose.#justSaying

muana congo said...

In Congo we say: “Kokende liboso eza kokoma te”. That is, starting off a race first on a tangent doesn’t mean finishing first.

Fact is: All Kagame-initiated wars in the Kivus start in Rwanda and end in Rwanda (Nkunda, Mutebisi, Runiga, Ntaganda…). But however long it will take, what is certain is that Congo shall prevail and the “honour” of Congolese people shall be restored splendidly with a “BANG” in Rwanda. This is just another Kagame’s lazy trickery: there was NEVER fighting fighting amongst M23 because it is tightly commanded by Kigali. Ntaganda and 2000 Rwandan troops going back home is but a distraction.

To int’l Kagame-backers and M23 advocates on Congo-siasa the question remains: what is the cyclical useless violence in the Kivus all about? We were promised the revelation of its “root causes”. We are still waiting!

More important though, the ball is in Congolese people and government court. Congolese have been slaughtered by Kagame and humiliated while the world sat back and quietly enjoyed the show. Now that we have bitten the bullet, there should be NO MORE niceties or indecisions on DRCgov part. Whatever they do (economy and security sector reform, democratization…) shall be in sole interest of the Congolese, and not to placate anyone. We don’t need any more report, study or even envoy. Hypocrites! We trust NONE!

There is only ONE solution to Kagame’s M24-M25 next war in the Kivus: like Israel DRC government must build an impenetrable electric barbed FENCE along its border with Rwanda. Also, they must ignore any stupid int’l treaty and lay a dense powerful limb-scattering LAND MINE FIELD (IC never applied intl’ law on Rwanda’s crimes in Congo) .

Let Congo integrate with Tanzania, Kenya or Uganda but NEVER with Kagame’s Rwanda. Congolese will never get nothing from Rwanda but death and desolation. Just SHUT that fricken bloody border!

muanacongo

kizza brown said...

they say theres alwayz a reason for a everythin i think ntaganda betrayals like nkunda again its kagame mind games with the world.mind you this kagame knws that giving ntaganda to the americans they was a possibily of not handing him over to the icc since U.S has no signatories to the rome statute that set the court its way of sayin look assh*les u've been acusing me of backin M23 so now what? lets wait and see...ntaganda was not takin kigali orders anymore and thats what made him fall this should send a strong signal to rest of tutsi in congo or rwanda or anywhere else no matter what u've done good for PK if u dont serve his interest anymore he will sell you.but lot beans will be spilled by ntaganda thats for sure for my understandin he knew lots and has been takin orders from kinshasa and kigali b4 when times were good

Sean Curtis said...

I think a deal may have secretly been organized among all or some of the players in this game. Two guys who have had no problem keeping hidden are suddenly captured and one turns himself in....hmmmmm.And they go back to Rwanda where many believe their orders and origins comes from. I think there's more done behind the scenes than any of us know about.

Mordred said...

I think its time to stop all the blame games & focus on the future. We have a window of opportunity here & it should not be squandered.

With the exit of Bosco Ntaganda, Kabila finally has an M23 faction that is totally willing to work towards a resolution of these problems. Its not easy, If I was M23 - I would never allow to have my men redeployed (scattered) all over the DRC and make them all vulnerable! This is a major sticking point in the negotiations. I think Kabila should let them stay together in the Kivus but re-intergrated into FARDC.

Congo should stop blaming Rwanda & Uganda for all its problems. The problems did not start with Rwanda. Besides, if you want to roll back Rwanda's interference - then you would have Mobutuists back. Congo & the UN need to resolve the problem with FDLR. How can 17,000 UN soldiers fail to curb FDLR Genocidiares?

The argument that Rwanda & Uganda are in Congo to exploit its resources is hogwash! If they are unable to fully exploit their own resources, how can they exploit someone else's? There is an interesting story about a Ugandan officer who died in a plane crash in the Congo. He was allegedly found in the wreckage with a briefcase containing 1 million dollars. They cited him as an example of how the Ugandan army is exploiting the Congo. How can I bring 1 million $ into the country & you say am exploiting you???

Jean Baptiste said...

The war between M23 factions (Makenga and Ntaganda) never happened!!!!!!! What happened is that Kagame asked all his RDF (RPF Rwanda Defense Forces) which were in Congo since 2009 to either return back home to Rwanda or stay with Makenga's Fardc rebels side. Kagame did so because he has been unable to pull off all his 2000+ RDF troops from Congo without being caught by international observers. As you know, now there is a joint International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) team based in Goma monitoring the border between Drc and Rwanda since last year. The only way PK could withdraw his two thousand troops from Congo was through this phony and fake infighting between M23 factions. It is worth to note that when the RDF pulled from Kibumba, Rwanda had already mobilised and invited all the international press (Cnn, Bbc, Aljazeera, Radio Okapi, Uganda and Kenya television crews) to witness the event! Naïve or complicit journalists were talking about more than 150 soldiers dead and some two thousand wounded! But no one has been able to see even a single dead body! Any military expert will tell you that no battle can leave behind 150 dead unless it is by bombing a barrack or a military parade. In any battle 150 soldiers can never be found close to one another. So, this whole thing of war in Kibumba is a Kagame's ploy. Kagame who is currently in USA has been instructed by donors to withdraw his troops from Congo, hand over Ntaganda AND IN RETURN HAVE THE DEVELOPMENT AID RESTORED. That is what will happen. In the next days and weeks, all the European countries will resume aids to Rwanda. Kagame has come to realise that his Rwanda landlocked country is very poor and survives only on aid perfusion. Kagame has started to feel the pain of aid cuts. His Agaciro Fund is a hoax. That is why he is complying with donors' demands. But the fact that Ntaganda is in US custody means that it is Rwanda and the USA (Clinton, Suzan Rice) who turned a blind eye of his atrocities since the AngloSaxons-led invasion of Afdl against Zaire in 1996. Let's hope that Americans are now feeling ashamed of their adventures in Congo (Lumumba assassination, Mobutu's dictatorship, Afdl, Rcd, Cndp, M23) What the RDC government must do now is to request that Colonels Ngaruye, Zimulinda, Kaina, Badege, Mirindi and Bishop Runiga be handed over to Drc government. This would persuade all the other Rwanda-led criminals (M23, Rcd-Goma, Raia Mutomboki, Fdlr-Rwarakabije, Mudundu 40, Sheka, Shetani, etc.) not to continue with their doomed adventures.

kizza brown said...

jean baptist u might be close to be right reading to what you just said but il give u thumbs up if the aid money is unfreezed within weeks then il say kagame was forced to choose''ntaganda or the aid money'' at this point we all saw the uturn he had a choice and that was 12million rwanda ppls coz ntaganda is replaceable and he already replaced him by makenga anyway and thats how this political game works its dirty

Zach B said...

unfortunately this event will not have a meaningful impact on the ground in Eastern DRC...with a Kabila silent on his intentions in 2016, when the "cards will be reshuffled", trouble makers in the region will be ready to for another round

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? said...

@ Zach B...ya hit the nail on the head. This won't change anything on the grander scale. There are hundreds of Boscos operating in E. Congo. It sickens me to continually hear the Congolese government officials speak about justice in this case, when they are by far, the most serious and obvious perpetrators of injustice in DRC. The Congolese government is very quick to mask its absolute failure and sheer negligence in providing even the most basic of basic social services to its people by continually scapegoating armed groups in the East. Meddling neighboring countries, and meddle they do, are just the tip of an iceberg fed by deep rooted fundamental problems related to an absolute failed state and the “don’t give a rat’s ass e as long as I’ve got mine” attitude of an incompetent and agonizingly corrupt Congolese government. We speak about using billions of dollars to combat armed groups in the East by turning a blind eye (or giving little attention) to government reform. Kabila and his cronies cry “wolf” and we come striding in our moral high horse with billions of dollars in tow, that, in the end are only used to polish the Italian marble floors in Kabila’s lake house on Kivu or to buy gas for the Jaguar of some Minister so he can drive on the 1km of paved roads in Goma. We like to talk about Kabila being the puppet of external interests, but the true puppet is us. We are the idiots, the manipulated, and the only thing to show for all of this is the continual suffering of Congolese people. But I guess, at the end of the day, that doesn’t really count…

tomasaquin said...

@Mordred
"Its not easy, If I was M23 - I would never allow to have my men redeployed (scattered) all over the DRC and make them all vulnerable! This is a major sticking point in the negotiations. I think Kabila should let them stay together in the Kivus but re-intergrated into FARDC."
_________________________________

But that is exactly the problem: You would just have another situation like at the end of the CNDP rebellion, when the CNDP/M23 establsih parallel command and control structures.

Just like Mr. Stearns so often explained: The only solution to this never-ending circle would be a political approach, that targets the underlying problems and concerns. Which in turn is ALSO easier said then done, as long as the most powerful individuals and ethnic groups would lose the most by that.

I honestly cant see any solution for the Kivu conflict anytime soon.

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Rich said...

The solution is for the regime in kigali to behave just like the other 8 or so neighbouring countries to that share a common border with the DRC.

Yes the DRC is a mess but why on earth the other 8 or so borders this country shares with the likes of tanzania, Zambia, Angola, Congo/Brazza, CAR, Sudan etc... never produced the likes of rcd; afdl; M23... or again the likes of J Mutebusi; L Nkunda; B Ntaganda; S Makenga; B Ngaruye;Zimurinda; Kaina; etc... with their lot of atrocity let alone Human Rights abuses?

The US needs to stop this hypocrisy of allowing P Kagame to get away with the murder of innocent and vulnerable Congolese simply because they didn't prevent what is known as a rwando-rwandan genocide.

This isn't simply about blaming and refusing to take responsibility it is about the truth. How people want the DRC to be that wonderful country when the most powerful nation on earth is there shielding a regime that has spent the best of its 19 years in power to destabilize a country that has yet to stand up on its feet after years of a US backed dictatorship?

B Ntaganda rendition is a non-event. If the man was ready to put his life on the line in DRC bushes and mountains to protect his handlers regime what would stop him from going to the Hague for some years to serve the same cause?

This man is for P kagame what Megrahi was for Gaddafi. He has been well debriefed and will be deployed to the Hague to act as a fuse that will unfreeze kagame's aid and isolation that started to squeeze his small brain.

The US must stop this hypocrisy that is costing innocent lives in the DRC.

Rich

Richard Lion said...

@Mel, Rich, etc

When Joseph Kabila & his father (GRHS)
"rolled" accross the border to liberate DRC from Mobutu Congo it was with the Rwandan RDF troops! No complaints about teritorial intergrity then! So why the sudden amazement at Rwanda's involvement in the DRC! Not to say the the DRC owes Rwanda & so on ...but the very factors that motivated Rwanda to support Kabila & the AFDL still exist!
If a terrorist group based itself in Mexico & threatened just 1 America family - US forces would have no compunctions about crossing the border covertly or overtly. As long as FDLR is armed and dangerous - Rwanda will never cease to get involved in the Kivus!
Apologies on the tone..I shall limit myself to solution seeking henceforth..just couldn't resist this once.

Rich said...

Richard Lion -

I will say it again.

You say FDLR justifies your atrocities in the DRC.

I say you had afdl; rcd; cndp; M23; J Kabarebe; J Mutebusi; L Nkunda; B Ntaganda; S Makenga; B Ngaruye, Zimurinda etc... + almost 18 YEARS

To what result?

One must admit this has been either a bloody failure or a bloody expansionism doomed to fail.

Rwanda is like this abused child that grew old to become a pedophile on its own rights.

Congolese shouldn't be killed and hurt for your own made genocide.

Rich

Amani said...

RICHARD LION
RDF participated in Kimia 1, Kimia 2, Umoja Wetu, Amani Leo, Amani Kamilifu. Most of these RDF are M23 rebels masquerading as Fardc. Unlike General Nkunda who is authentic true Congolese, Terminator Ntaganda is a Rwandese Citizen. But, Kagame wants the world to believe that Ntaganda is Congolese. Kagame wants to force Ntaganda down Congo’s throat as he did for Kabarebe who was MADE Congolese and Congo’s Chief of Staff. Today Kararebe has returned back to his Rwandese nationality of origin in Kigali. It will be the same for Ntaganda when he gives his place of birth, his home permanent residence and address in Kinigi, his past professional experience in the RPF (from October 1, 1990 to 1996 in Rwanda, and from 1996 to March 2013: RPF Expeditionary Forces in Zaire/Drc embedded in Afdl, Rcd-Goma, UPC-Lubanga in Ituri, Cndp and M23). Even his ICC arrest warrant clearly states he is of Rwandese nationality. President Kabila allowed RDF SPECIAL FORCES and DMI to carry out targeted assassination of Fdlr leaders on Congo soil. They killed the FDLR Chief of Staff Col. Mugaragu and an elite battalion’s commander Col. Kanzeguhera. Other several important Fdlr officers have also been wiped out by those RDF commandos. Kabila has done everything possible to comply with Rwanda’s security demands about Fdlr (this Fdlr thing being the underlying root cause of Rwanda chronic aggressions of the Drc, according to Kagamists). But, Rwanda is not an honest peace broker. It is Rwanda who created the current Fdlr leaders. It is worth to note that there are two Fdlr: One still commanded by General Rwarakabije, a former Fdlr Chief of staff who defected to Kigali from where he still coordinates operations inside Kivu aimed to sabotaging the DRRR (disarmament, demobilisation and repatriation, reintegration and resettlement) operations. It is this group that carries out massive rapes and killings in Kivu, and it is used to manufacture blackmails and treason charges against Rwandese opposition figures like Mushayidi, Ingabire, Rusesabagina of Hotel Rwanda, General Kayumba, Colonel Karegeya, etc. The Fdlr-Rwarakabije includes Fdlr combatants who are repatriated from Drc, sent to Rwanda, demobilized, and then sent back to DRC, when the need arises. So, it’s a vicious circle. THE FDLR WILL NEVER GO AWAY BECAUSE KAGAME WANTS IT TO REMAIN ALIVE SO HE CAN CASH ON IT AND BUILD HIS PROPAGANDA ON THE ENDLESS MENACE THE GROUP REPRESENTS TO RWANDA. The second group of Fdlr includes chicken and pig thieves, bandits who were in conflict with Rwarakabije in the bush; and who are afraid of returning to Rwanda; especially now that General Rwarakabije is the Head of Rwandan prisons. The problem for Rwanda is not this Fdlr-Rwarakabije or theses potato and goat thieves. The problem is how to open political space so that 15% of Tutsi and 85% of Hutus can share power, either by democratic means (one person, one voice), or by political design (like in Burundi: 40%-60%). Instead of burying their head in the sand and masturbating themselves politically, Kagamists have to realise that everything has a beginning and an end. This phony political discourse of saying that there are no tribes in Rwanda is a lie. How come then there are tribes in the sister republic of Burundi? How come then there are Tutsi in Kivu? Why does Kagame keep asking rights for Congolese Tutsis but keep silence about Rwandese Hutus’ rights? Why can Kagame ask Kabila to rule Congo BY RESPECTING ETHNIC REPRESENTATIONS yet Kagame himself does not do that in his own army in Rwanda? How many Hutus are in the High Command? Why does Kagame ask Congo to do what Rwanda does not do? In Congo, Tutsis represent less than 1% of the total population. Yet, in Kivu, 90% of colonels in Fardc are Tutsis. Congolese Tutsis are very much afraid of the M23 war backlash! They know that RPF will come and go, but Congolese Tutsis will have to live with their fellow brothers and sisters Congolese citizens whose families have been wiped out by Ntaganda and other criminals on Kagame’s payroll.

Mel said...

@Richard Lion

Noticed you called me out on your post- but I haven't posted anything yet?!

This southern gal in Florida usually likes to wait until you gents have your fill and do your chest-thumping before I weigh in. :)

In any event, I don't have much to say here other than I am very glad that my Congolese sisters can, for a time atleast, look over their shoulders across to their fields and not worry as much that they will be raped, beaten, tortured, or killed as a result of these developments.

VERY.

Finally, while I realize it is rather fashionable to tar my country as rife with "hypocrisy", I believe it is more fitting (and more accurate) to claim that America pursues its self-interest in the world which, at this moment, requires a strong and stable Rwanda. Indeed, it is precisely self-interest and preservation that encourages Kinshasa to allow the East to descend into lawlessness and chaos (inviting Kigali's "intervention") and continuing to allow FDLR to exist.

Perhaps when the Kinshasa decides to assist America in fighting the jihadists in the Horn and the Sahel the calculus in Washington regarding Kigali (and Kampala, and Nairobi) will shift.

My two cents (worth nothing)

Mel

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Rich said...

Mel -

Ref # “… Perhaps when the Kinshasa decides to assist America in fighting the jihadists in the Horn and the Sahel the calculus in Washington regarding Kigali (and Kampala, and Nairobi) will shift.”

I have to disagree with you on this one. Fighting jihadists by allowing the regime in Kigali to bring atrocity on innocent & vulnerable Congolese is in fact promoting hatred and selling jihadists to those with a perception that there is a bias in the way the Washington is using its power.

My take is, the US does more harm to its image and self-interest by siding with human rights abusers than by promoting equality and protecting the most vulnerable which is what millions in the region are expecting are striving for.

You only need to look at the map of places classified as hostile to Americans or indeed the US to see the point I am trying to make. Again, I’m not naïve enough to think that the US can make everyone happy in this world but the fact is, Congolese do not deserve to die for the US self-interest. In the same way that Americans are not to be sacrificed for any nation’s self-interest. Simple as that.

Rich

bfhend said...

Rich -
Some months back I posted my view that Barack Obama and Paul Kagame were engaged in brinksmanship over Bosco Ntaganda and events in eastern Congo. The Obama administration wanted Bosco arrested and sent to the Hague to face the ICC indictment against him. The pushback from Kigali was the launch of M23 (which was probably on the cards anyway), culminating in the fall of Goma.

Now we see the M23 in shambles and Bosco seeking American protection to get him to the Hague. It looks to me like Barack Obama and Paul Kagame stood toe to toe and one of them blinked. We may well be witnessing John Kerry's style as secretary of state in terms of behind the scenes diplomacy.

I tend to sympathize with your point of view that the rationale behind American support for Kagame is increasingly inconsistent with US national interests. Be that as it may, both the Bush administration and the Obama administration seemed to have calculated that balancing American interests vis-a-vis Kinshasa and Kigali is the prudent course. I do see a shift away from US foreign policy of the 90s which was clearly tilted towards Kigali. In all honesty, I believe the US understands that the DRC represents the future and will emerge as the dominant regional power - but until the Congolese political class pulls itself together and performs up to expectations the American government will continue to hedge its bets.

Bruce

Rich said...

Bruce -

Thanks a lot.

Fair points as always and I completely agree Congolese political class needs to grow up.

Rich

Mel said...

@ Rich

I broadly agree with your concerns re: American self interest and its (often) self-limiting nature. But ofcourse, we live in the real world. And in the real world, nation’s pursue their self interest with particular abandon. It would be great if we lived in a world where all public policy- which would include its foreign variant- were black and white, efficient, free of all parochialisms, and whose effects affected everyone equally and without prejudice.

We don’t live in this world, Rich. Perhaps one day we will and I will harken it when it happens but we plainly and obviously do not.

Finally, I take some exception with the implicit notion that somehow, we “Americans”, are somehow to blame for violence visited upon the Congolese. At the end of the day, it is entirely up to the Congolese political class to protect and defend its people. And as you surely know, they have failed pretty miserably on this account. This sad state of affairs is not the fault of Washington, or Kigali, or anyone else. This is entirely the result of a political class in Kinshasa that is so drunk of its own need for self-preservation and ill-gotten wealth that it actually is considered rational to allow the Congolese State to continue its slow and steady descent into the jungle.

In brief, the utter and complete lack of maturity of the Congolese political elite and their seeming unwillingness to build an effective state that is the primary reason why violence is visited upon average Congolese so often and so brutally. And it is also this lack of maturity that has encouraged successive American administrations to prefer a partner that takes state-building (and its most important project: maintaining a stable, professional, and effective armed force that can repel domestic and foreign foes) seriously so as to secure an Africa that does not become a haven for terror. And that partner would be Rwanda.

Unfortunately, while I agree with Bruce that a change is a foot in Washington as it relates to the DRC vis a vis Kigali, I actually don’t see my own political elite somehow waking up and seeing the potential of Africa- and the DRC in particular- that our primarily business elite are beginning to see. Honestly, it would take a sustained, multi year, “Capitalism will die stupid unless Africans get rich too!” advertising campaign to truly encourage our political elite to wake up.

Perhaps our business elite will get the job done but, given their own lack of credibility these days, I’m not holding my breath.

Mel

Freddy Keller said...

In the way, if Rwanda was Democratic as some westerns grade him, why can't he bring back his Hutu people who still wondering in the Congolese jungle? Rwanda should be fair as President Obama told the Israelis youth saying that if you have right to a land why not the Palestinians?
Freddy Diwa

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Thanks for this post. Its interesting how the M23 dismantling which seems a good thing does then bring about more problems because there is not the same opening for the Framework Agreement. Keep up the good work Jason and keep us posted!

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